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  • Now Britain is struggling with the economic impact off the coronavirus pandemic.

  • A major supermarket.

  • Jane just announced they'll start rationing items amid fears off second wave of panic buying.

  • But things could get even worse after a no deal.

  • Brexit, the British retail consortium warns that tariffs would push up prices, hitting shoppers on retailers alike that if goods actually arrive in the UK long lines at the harbor of Dover and the Eurotunnel, the British government fears that trucks will wait up to two days in traffic jams to get through customs clearance.

  • It believes there will be a backup of 7000 HDTVs, or heavy goods vehicles, waiting to cross into the U from Kent.

  • That's the worst case scenario that London is currently grappling with.

  • The scenario builds on an estimate that only 50 to 70% of large businesses on just 20 to 40% of small and medium sized enterprises would be ready for the strict application of new you requirements.

  • In those circumstances, that could mean that only between 30 and 60% off laden H G V s would arrive at the border with the necessary formalities completed for the goods on board.

  • They therefore be turned back by the French border authorities clogging the Dover to Cali crossing.

  • One reason why businesses are so poorly prepared is the coronavirus pandemic.

  • The companies have been focusing on coping with the consequences of the lock down.

  • Ah think tank, with economists from London's King's College has concluded that a no deal Brexit could have three times the negative impact on the British economy has the coronavirus the consequences of the pandemic.

  • Maybe more drastic in the short term.

  • But in the long term, a no deal Brexit would leave deeper scars.

  • Well, right now, everything points towards a no deal, Brexit, especially after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided to step back on parts of the withdrawal agreement, which was the basis for trade negotiations on which Johnson himself signed only last year.

  • But for more, I'm joined by Craig Earlham, senior market analyst at Wander in London.

  • Craig, good to have you with us, Um, well, the London Stock Exchange modeling has put the long term economic hit from a no deal Brexit at 8% of GDP.

  • At the same time, JP Morgan is moving 200 billion euros from London to Frankfurt, citing Brexit as a reason.

  • Why would London now seemingly pushed for a no deal?

  • Brexit in all?

  • Honestly, I don't think London is pushing for a no deal.

  • Brexit.

  • I think they believe the threat of no deal.

  • Brexit has to be on the table in order to try and get some more favorable negotiating terms.

  • Whether that's successful, we'll have to wait and see later on this year.

  • But I don't think anyone or I don't think most people at this stage really want no no deal Brexit in particular business and the government will be all too aware of that.

  • I think the risk from no deal Brexit stems from the government backing itself into a corner on potentially leaving itself with no other alternative, Right?

  • Craig, you mentioned you mentioned.

  • It's like sort of this.

  • This threat needs to be on the table in order to get more favorable terms.

  • I know that the Brexit negotiations and everything has been going on for four years.

  • Nevertheless, do jog our memory.

  • What is London actually after?

  • Well, I think I mean, there's there's a number of points still on the table.

  • I think fishing rights is still a contentious issue.

  • Um, in these negotiations, there is also about state aid, another issue in these negotiations.

  • I think what London is primarily fighting for is the ability to effectively self rule and is the ability to make these decisions itself.

  • We've got to remember this is not a conservative government that necessarily back state aid to any significant degree, but the flexibility to allow itself to have the freedom Thio go down that route, for example, in the future, I think, is an important negotiating ploy as far as this government is concerned.

  • But like I say, I think we all we have to see this through the prism off a negotiation.

  • What the government says it wants now on what it ultimately wants.

  • It's on goal to be maybe two entirely different things.

  • You set your stall out here and here with the idea that hopefully you'll end up somewhere in between.

  • On, I think the ast faras the UK government is concerned having no deal.

  • Brexit is an option on the table on extremely unfavorable outcome.

  • As far as both sides are concerned, particularly here in the UK, then that potentially moves that line from here slightly closer towards your favor again.

  • Whether that actually turns out to be true is an entirely different thing.

  • Well, well.

  • So while while Britain or while London ISS playing such games, that's actually a quote from some European policymakers saying Britain should stop playing such games.

  • But while this is happening, obviously business doesn't quite know how to how to deal with what's coming or not coming.

  • And now the British government actually says that British small and medium sized enterprises failed to adequately prepare for Brexit.

  • What exactly are they supposed to do?

  • Yeah, this this this again is a really strange point.

  • From Michael Gove, you could understand that 5% of businesses were unprepared of 10% of businesses were unprepared.

  • Then you could say that this is solely the blame of these businesses, because the guidelines air clearly clear enough that 90% of the businesses feel fully prepared.

  • If 75% of businesses run prepared, then this is ultimately the government that is to blame.

  • Whether that is because they've been, they haven't.

  • They've like clarity in terms of their guidelines for how businesses must prepare.

  • Maybe it's a cost issue on, especially when you're looking at SMEs.

  • They just don't have the ability Teoh be able to prepare because they don't have the cash available in order to invest in the way that large businesses air able.

  • Thio.

  • Ultimately, if we get to the end of this year in, 75% of SMEs are going to be un prepared for Brexit hard, Brexit, nosy or Brexit.

  • Then the government is ultimately to blame because it means that a they've promised that this is gonna be an extremely straightforward process.

  • The prospect of Lorries queueing at Dover is, or scaremongering on, that businesses will be absolutely fine.

  • They can't say this one minute and then a couple of months before no deal or a hard deal.

  • Brexit say that businesses were prepared to this scale, and it's all their fault.

  • These two things just don't add up, all right?

  • Just very, very briefly Craig.

  • On a scale from 1 to 10 what are the chances that we will see a deal by the end of the year?

  • I've been in the eternal optimist throughout this.

  • I still see it 78 out of 10 but I will say that I will say that this is probably the most pessimistic.

  • Got bean now for the last four years.

  • I think it's in everyone's interest.

  • Okay, Craig girl, I'm in London.

  • Thank you so much.

  • Thank you.

Now Britain is struggling with the economic impact off the coronavirus pandemic.

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After Covid: Will Brexit be the next shock for Britain's economy? | DW News

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/10/24
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