Placeholder Image

Subtitles section Play video

  • we wouldn't have thought right over the last few years that would ever get there.

  • And if you look at the average spread between 10 year Treasury and 30 year mortgage rates over the last six months has been a 1.9%.

  • So with 10 year Treasuries below 1% theoretically, you would think it could.

  • But typically when we see 10 year Treasuries dropped the way they have over the last week or so, we don't see quite that same level of reduction among 30 rates.

  • I think we're still, at least for the near term, likely a little bit above 3%.

  • You have some great information about how many borrowers we could be talking about to refinance.

  • Um, 11 million.

  • 12,000,013.

  • 14 million.

  • I mean, what what do you guys kind of estimate here?

  • So as of last week, when Freddy reported interest rates, they were right around 3.45%.

  • And at that rate, there about 11 million homeowners that we estimate could save about 3/4 of a percent through refinancing.

  • If rates fall this week, right?

  • Freddie will report their numbers tomorrow morning.

  • If we do see an eighth of a point drop.

  • That number jumps by 15% to 12.8 million.

  • If it drops a full quarter of a percent were now upto well over 14 million homeowners that could benefit from a refinance of 30% jump in a single week.

  • What about new buyers?

  • And what is the impact of all of these falling rates having on boosting home prices as a result?

  • Right.

  • And we've really been seeing that trend play out of the last 18 months of interest rates have fallen from around 5% late 2018 all the way down to three and 1/2 percent below now.

  • And really starting late last fall, we started to see the housing market start to shift.

  • You saw home price growth rates go from him just over three and 1/2 percent.

  • They're already up to 5% and last time we saw affordability at this level, they were between six and 1/2 and 7%.

  • So still, some potential upswing there in terms of home price growth, right, which in a way could make it housing less accessible to people, even though you think low rates would help let me just go back to where I started, You said.

  • Usually there's about a two point spread, 1.9 points or so between the Treasury rate and the 30 year mortgage rates.

  • So is it possible that we can fall further here?

  • Or is there a structural reason why at some point, these banks and mortgage companies need to make a profit?

  • They'll keep its kind of minds me of when oil prices falling.

  • People watch what happens at the gas station.

  • Will they try toe to keep that spread where it is or even wider?

  • Right?

  • I think it's certainly possible.

  • You tend to see the spread lengthen the further further down Treasuries go, and we're kind of uncharted territories in terms of 10 year Treasuries.

  • We've never seen them below 1% so somewhat of an unknown in terms of how 30 year rates will react.

  • But typically you, you see a little bit more modest movement among through 30 year rates, a little bit more spread when rates fall is as much as they have.

  • Would you refinance right now?

  • I mean, it is certainly something to look at.

  • We've refinanced in the past.

  • We already have a low rate locked in, but certainly something that I think homeowners should look at, especially homeowners that have larger first thing balances.

  • You're also seeing homeowners kind of look at the record levels of equity that there is out there in the market today.

  • They're looking at record low 30 year rates as well, and we're seeing large volumes of cash out refinance activity enter the market.

  • A cz well, so that could be a growing trend here in 2020 as well.

  • The house is theeighty m once again past it.

  • I'm hopeful, Hopefully not to that degree.

  • I think we're seeing a lot more conservative behavior today than what we saw in 56 2007 but certainly an increase in that type of activity.

  • Very, very interesting.

  • Andie, it's good to see you.

  • Great information.

  • Thanks.

  • Absolutely.

we wouldn't have thought right over the last few years that would ever get there.

Subtitles and vocabulary

Operation of videos Adjust the video here to display the subtitles

B1 refinance percent mortgage spread market housing

Declining interest rates can spur an already heating housing market: Market researcher

  • 3 0
    林宜悉 posted on 2020/03/13
Video vocabulary