Placeholder Image

Subtitles section Play video

  • Let's start with a big move this week because two weeks ahead of a scheduled meeting, just a couple of hours after a G seven announcement from the finance ministers and central bankers were going to do what's appropriate.

  • Fed comes barreling out of the gate.

  • Emergency meeting.

  • 50 basis point cut hasn't happened since 2008.

  • Why the urgency?

  • What shifted?

  • I think that, you know, J.

  • Paul did a great job in his press conference in hallucinating the details around this, but, you know, risks obviously arising that this Corona virus could be more severe than, uh, what were previously thinking.

  • I think the sentiment for me, anyway, was that we were probably gonna have to move at the March meeting anyway.

  • Might as well move that up and do it sooner.

  • S o.

  • I think that was the basic thinking here.

  • I also think that we got the policy rate to the right place for now, Uh, given the information that we have now, and we took out some insurance against the possibility that this will cause growth slowdown in the US well, you know, that's interesting.

  • You say it's at the right level for now.

  • because Donald Trump President Trump is the only person who's calling for more rate cuts.

  • A lot of traders.

  • Wall Street economists are saying the Fed will move again.

  • 50 basis points at the March meeting is that doesn't sound like something you're on board with you.

  • I don't think I don't think you should prejudge that meeting at this point.

  • We've already just had a meeting.

  • We moved the policy right where we thought it should be.

  • Given the information we have today, Obviously, it's a very fluid situation, and we are keeping track of things.

  • But, you know, you've hung around monetary policy for a long time.

  • It's unlikely we're gonna have that much different of information when we get to the get to the March meeting.

  • Depending on how you view how rapidly this is, this is gonna move shortly.

  • Can keep our options open there.

  • But, um, since what we kind of pulled that that decision forward.

  • I'm not sure you should put a lot of weight on the march meeting right now.

  • Anyway, we could meet intermeeting anyway, which we've just shown that we could do so so I just wouldn't want to put a tremendous amount of focus on this on this March meeting.

  • There won't be a lot of new information there that we don't have today, except except how the virus is progressing day today.

  • That kind of information will be, uh we'll have a little bit more on that.

  • So that is something that the Federal Reserve is now tracking very closely.

  • I mean, that's what we started doing with China and everybody.

  • Yeah, globally.

  • Yeah, well, on the FOMC, uh, was there was this pretty much unanimously supported Was this in any sense of close call as this participants got on the phone and talked about it and voice their opinions and set their boats.

  • You're not a voter, but nevertheless, everybody has a say in this.

  • Yeah, I can't talk about the meeting itself, but the vote was unanimous.

  • And, uh, I think I think it's pretty clear that the baseline of the U.

  • S.

  • Economy is still quite good.

  • Best labor markets we've had in 50 years and all the rest of this associate with that great consumption, everything's looking good.

  • But the downside risks have increased here.

  • And so we want to take that on board and get some insurance to make sure we keep the expansion going.

  • As we deal with this temporary virus, they will be temporary.

  • We'll eventually we'll get through this.

  • But the question is, how severe is there gonna be?

  • How long is it gonna last?

  • Because of the fact that, um, the meeting was so close.

  • And you only have so much information.

  • I think a lot of people have concluded that this rate cut was really focused on confidence.

  • I guess that was a conference.

  • Wasn't the stock market wanting to create help, stand up and say we're here to create some stability and not see the market continue to take Anna's courses?

  • You know, the first reaction to the move was a big sell off in stocks.

  • You know, the reaction.

  • That was the reaction, but ahead in the meeting, there was actually a rally based on the fact that the G seven ministers we're gonna we're gonna meet.

  • And I think, uh, this was kind of buying the rumor sell on the news kind of situation, so I'm not quite sure you could just read it straightaway.

  • A ce faras When?

  • When the fed moved here.

  • You know, a lot of people would say, Well, probably doesn't matter that much if you do, if you make the rate cut 10 days ahead or 10 days later and I think that's true from a macroeconomic perspective, But at least my thinking waas, why don't we just go ahead now?

  • If we if we think we're going to do it in March, we must just go ahead now and UM, and position monetary policy appropriately for the current situation.

  • Did the stock market in there to it all and the big?

  • So because we've seen some pretty we've had quite a downdraft from the highs I know the stock market is still maintaining some gains from the beginning of the rally.

  • Nevertheless, investors like you and I have talked about this over the years, but the the stock market is trying to look ahead and see what the growth prospects are for the US economy.

  • The Fed is trying to do the same thing.

  • Look ahead, see what?

  • See what the prospects are for the economy.

  • The stock market trades minute by minute.

  • We only meet every so often, so sometimes it looks like one is reacting to the other But I don't really think that that's true.

  • I think both are trying to forecast the future, and I think that's what was that was going, what was going on here.

  • Can you walk us through Jim?

  • How a rate cut is supposed to help deal with a virus This is not like looking at employment reports and retail sales.

  • So is there a mechanism?

  • Would it be through higher stock prices because of Fed move Does create confidence.

  • Ah, lower US dollar, lower rates for home and auto loans.

  • Are they gonna work?

  • If people are so freaked out about the virus, they can't think about anything else and don't go out and shop and don't make the big decisions like that.

  • What's the mechanism for interest rates and the virus?

  • Yeah, I mean, we we know and chair Paul said during the press conference.

  • You know that this isn't going to fix, you know, medical issues.

  • I do think we will get an outstanding public health response in the U.

  • S.

  • And my thinking on that is that that response is occurring at the federal level, the state level, the local level and even on the individual level And so you've got many reactions to this Corona virus that on net, I think, will be very positive in helping Toa protect us against the spires as best as we can be protected.

  • So I think we'll do very well.

  • I think we have a very good health system in the U.

  • S.

  • One of the best in the world.

  • And, uh, we'll be ableto handle this a cz well, as it can be handled.

  • So I think what will happen going forward is we'll get news about, you know, there's an outbreak here or there.

  • I think we'll get many more cases in the days ahead.

  • But I think, generally speaking, I'm optimistic that we can make a good response here on the health side for that for interest rates.

  • I think we just had to take on the idea that there is risk to growth to the downside, and, uh, that would naturally lower the rate of the natural rate of interest on.

  • Do we have to take that on board when we were making monetary policy?

  • So, um, have you cut your growth forecasts at this point?

  • Some.

  • A lot of private forecasters have, you know, uh, we're in the We're in the middle of working on that.

  • So what do you think I should do?

  • Uh, I think my bass case is still that will will do quite well in the U.

  • S.

  • Economy for this year.

  • I think the fundamentals are good, and I think the base cases that we can bring this virus under control.

  • Um, I understand that there's downside risk to that, and that's why I'm willing to adjust policy.

  • And I think all options are on the table as far as that goes.

  • But, uh, but for this year, you know, uh oh, a CD came out with growth forecasts.

  • I think they only marked the US down 1/10.

  • Uh, that was a group that was trying to get the whole global impact and model the whole thing and put it all together, and they came up with only 1/10 on US growth as a base case.

  • They also understand that there's downside risk, but but I think that's probably the best way to think about it right now.

  • First quarter tracking growth HS market still a 2.1% so I'm not quite sure we're going to see as big an effect in the first quarter's maybe what people were previously thinking.

  • So I think a lot depends on how the virus evolves here in.

  • And, um so we're gonna have to play this very carefully going forward.

  • But for right now, sitting here right today, I'm I'm still sticking to a pretty good base forecast for the US economy.

  • What about this criticism or fear?

  • Concern that the Federal Reserve is using valuable interest rate cut ammo at a time when it may not be very effective.

  • If the virus gets worse and people to go out and shop, interest rate cuts can't change that.

  • And in fact, if we look at China, what did they do to slow the virus?

  • They took steps that slow the economy.

  • They closed factories.

  • They told people to stay home.

  • If it gets bad in the U.

  • S.

  • Won't that happen to why be cutting rates at a time when the cure for the virus is, in effect, slow the economy, make people stayed at home?

  • You make me make sure that these these activities that connect us are not occurring on.

  • And then you're just doing your witness.

  • I know, I know a lot of people are saying this, but they're forgetting that there are longer run strategic decisions that might be made based on lower rates.

  • You might stimulate some investment that wouldn't otherwise be made on the margin.

  • Households might decide Thio make a purchase that they wouldn't otherwise make from their home computers or something like that.

  • So I really am not sure that you can just make this cleaned economy and say there aren't any effects.

  • People often say that about monetary policy.

  • It rarely turns out to be true.

  • So what about the bond market, Jim?

  • I mean, did you ever think you'd see a 10 year note, but low 1%?

  • Stocks have rebounded a bit today, but the tenure is still, you know, 10.9 and some and change.

  • What's the signal here?

  • What is that telling us?

  • Well, I think markets have become worried about this morphing into a global pandemic, and there's a lot of flight to safety coming to the U.

  • S.

  • So that's, I think, lion share of what's going on here, Um, and sitting here today, we're not quite sure how this is gonna transpire in the U.

  • S.

  • And Europe in particular.

  • And so we're gonna have to wait and see how the how the virus progresses going forward.

  • I think you know, uh, it's amateur hour for Mia's a ce faras the medical part.

  • But I do think a lot of the cases turn out to be more mild.

  • That has happened in China.

  • That might happen.

  • Appears to be happening in the U.

  • S.

  • A Spartan what I can tell.

  • But, um well, just watch this very closely and and encourage our public health officials to make a great response here.

  • Are you worried about negative bond yields in the United States to welcome them?

  • And in fact, that leads me apart to that question.

  • Maybe is the important part if bond yields are so low.

  • And if we're gonna get negative.

  • Banyuls people are saying protecting at the short.

  • And why does it need to cut rates?

  • Yeah, So the market did our work for us already because most of the yield curve is very low.

  • Anyway, So, um, I think we're, uh, like I said, I think we're moving the policy rate to an appropriate level, given the downside risk that's out there.

  • Even though the baseline forecast ISS is still pretty good, growth in the U.

  • S.

  • Inflation sounds doesn't seem like anybody's front partner.

  • Worry right now, does it, especially with virus and this whole question of where we're going next on rates.

  • But does it have an implication for inflation?

  • Because we know this has been a big deal for the Fed and particularly for Chair Powell.

  • Let's get freshen up to target.

  • He really want to do it in 2020.

  • Is this going to make it a lot tougher, if not impossible?

  • For some reason?

  • Yeah, well, for those that want to interpret this as a pure supply shock, they've got some explaining to do.

  • Unless they they're also willing to say that inflation is gonna go up because that's what a supply Shocked has conventionally defined would be doing.

  • It would be sending inflation higher.

  • That would actually be a welcome development from the point of view of the committee, because we have been trying to get inflation up toward target.

  • So I think if if we got that kind of, um, development, I'm not really expecting that, But let's suppose we got some bottlenecks and some pricing that drove was enough to drive inflation somewhat higher.

  • I think we'd welcome that and accept that as part of the part of the shock.

  • At a time when the Fed wants provide more stimulus and maybe you don't want to rely so heavily on rate cuts, you know, there's there's been forecast from Fed officials that, um, the liquidity provided through repo operations is going to be gradually tapering in the first half of the year.

  • Would this be a time to go in the opposite direction And to be more generous and make sure there's lots of liquidity, take some of the pressure off rate cuts and, uh, and and use a mechanism that is there waiting to be used?

  • Yeah, that's more of a technical decision on operational aspects of, AH, monetary policy that's run by the New York desk.

  • But we're trying for that.

  • We're trying to get through this April time frame where we could have tax, uh, tax returns coming in and so on.

  • And that's often a time when there's volatility in short term funding markets.

  • So we're gonna make sure we have.

  • I think, that nailed down and taking care of.

  • And then once we get past that, we can review that that policy.

  • But I think it is interesting to think that, you know, we could we could look at that and do something there if we wanted to.

  • Like I say, I think everything's on the table here.

  • I don't think there's any reluctance to, um, you know, use various tools to our advantage you've worn in the past about a sort of Japan style deflationary downward spiral.

  • Um, do you see any?

  • Is that again?

  • Sort of the asking.

  • That question is the result of the fear of the virus and how bad this could get.

  • Or is this something that you could see combining with other factors in the world that are already in play, actually a sliding in that direction?

  • Uh, I think there is some risk of that, but I think one of the things we're trying to do here stay out of that situation.

  • Move aggressively now.

  • Uh, keep the expansion going.

  • Keep growth on an even keel.

  • Keep labor markets performing well and get inflation up to target or above target.

  • Let it go above target for a while.

  • Those are the kinds of things that we're trying to do here to make sure that we've got the ability run, monetary stabilization policy well into the future.

  • Here.

  • When you look at China's latest numbers, of course we have the dreadful PM I.

  • But we know that was partly engineered by the Chinese government.

  • Ah, but car sales were down.

  • Something like 80%.

  • They were already weakened.

  • China.

  • How does their economy look to you now?

  • Are they at a point where you think the worst is over, or do you think China could sink further?

  • Second, largest economy has a lot of implications for other Asian nations for models.

  • You so many things, those numbers.

  • I think we're no surprise.

  • You had major fraction of the Chinese economy essentially shut down eso.

  • You would expect those kinds of numbers to be very bad in that particular juncture.

  • But thinking is that they get past the virus and it does look like there bring it under control and then, ah, factory start toe ramp up again.

  • Some of the production is made up, maybe a lot of it.

  • And so you get a bounce back later.

  • You know, before we got going on this previously?

  • That was Wall Street story Then Then I think Wall Street got a lot more pessimistic and maybe policymakers to and we got news from around the world about the spread of the virus, but it's worth remembering that that was the original story.

  • And that is what has happened with other viruses in the past.

  • They do Peter out factory, start up again.

  • Production starts up again.

  • You make up for a lot of the past production.

  • So, um, you know, we'll see how this develops.

  • We're gonna keep a close eye on it.

  • But that's ah, narrative worth remembering, I would say.

  • And a CZ you emphasize, as everyone does the fact that we we know this in some sense will be maybe a long temporary.

  • We don't know how long it's gonna take a few days or how bad is going to get.

  • But we have confidence and faith that solutions will be found.

  • We will get through.

  • This could miss it.

  • In a way, be a much worse version of the 1987 stock market crash.

  • The Fed Greenspan fed saw the stock market go down so swiftly and so much cut rates twice wasn't long before they were raising rates again.

  • Other words realize, Oh, the economy survived.

  • We didn't need those rate cuts.

  • We can take them back.

  • I know it's probably really too early to think about that seriously, but it could it over.

  • The longer term proved to be like that.

  • Yeah, the 87 situation was, ah, beautiful example of, ah, a major move and equity pricing that didn't result in a downturn and maybe partly because of the Fed's response at the time, but also keep in mind, it was much more severe.

  • If I recall correctly, you're talking about 22% on the day.

  • Yeah, 22% of our look like nothing.

  • That's an issue.

  • So I think, uh, uh, you know, we're not in that situation, but that's an example of, ah, dramatic re pricing that actually did not result in in anything bad happening for the economy near term.

  • So I think, uh, you know, another thing to keep in mind here on equity pricing is obviously there's a big run up from about October 1st or so last year, up until maybe mid February.

  • So it had gone up a lot.

  • A lot of commentary on Wall Street and on Bloomberg has been that, uh, well, maybe this was Corona.

  • Virus is kind of a catalyst for people taking profits on that on that big run up anyway, so, you know, I don't know.

  • It's always hard to measure in markets exactly what's going on.

  • But that's a factor.

  • Is what you always have to remember that we in this situation we started from a peak and quite a peak.

  • It waas So as we look at some of the other factors here, Jim, I wonder.

  • It just seems like conventional monetary policy is maybe just is it sort of off the table?

  • I mean, what are you going to look at?

  • Why you're but you're looking a virus and you're watching virus data.

  • This is so different from watching the economy.

  • And I wonder, can you is it is.

  • It must be a difficult kind of leap for central bankers who are steeped in that.

  • As you said to suddenly watch this data and no well, gosh, maybe we should consider another cut in March.

  • Or maybe we should move in April.

  • I mean, is it really going isn't gonna be the economy.

  • It was a joy.

  • Joy.

  • My economics is you get to think about everything and because everybody's part of the economy, all countries, they're part of the global economy.

  • I remember the you probably remember this to the waking up here and seeing pictures of the tsunami hitting Japan and Fukushima reactor.

  • And I remember thinking to myself, Well, that's that's a terrible human tragedy, but that probably won't have any macro implications.

  • And then, lo and behold, I find out in the, you know, subsequent weeks No, this was going to disrupt supply chains and it was going to affect the economy, and we had to take that take that into account.

  • So now that's an example of a natural disaster, which which is affecting the economy.

  • So you have to take that into account a little bit.

  • Okay.

  • Well, um, speaking of Japan just really quickly here.

  • How does Japan's economy look to you right now?

  • Uh, well, they had ah, down quarter in the fourth quarter, had the big tax increase, and obviously they're close to China.

  • They're gonna have Maur impact from China.

  • So we'll see how this plays out.

  • But again, I think to the extent China's recovering and they have a good public health response in Japan, I don't see any reason why they can't do better in the second quarter and third quarter of this year.

  • Yeah, well, at least the Internet, The Olympic International Committee said today, apparently, that they're not yet considering postponing the Olympics.

  • So maybe that's another story.

  • I think they want to keep a close eye on that, depending on how the virus develops around the world.

  • But they wouldn't want to have a major event like that if they didn't feel confident that that everybody be healthy.

  • So, Jim, you know, there's a lot of talk in the U.

  • S.

  • And around the world about fiscal action.

  • Now this'll is necessary.

  • Seems obvious to people.

  • But, um, is this something that Central Banks can rely on?

  • Is there any sense of if action is undertaken?

  • What would be most helpful right now?

  • Yeah.

  • When people refer to this, I think they're too broad.

  • Uh, many, many things get get lumped under the rubric of fiscal action, so it's not always clear what people really mean, And it would be a different situation for different countries.

  • Uh, as far as what they could do and how fast they could move.

  • You're talking about, ah, situation that is extremely fluid here.

  • And you're probably talking weeks and months here a lot of political processes air very cumbersome and very slow.

  • And by the time you implement something, you're past the shock.

  • So I think those were some of the considerations around lumping everything into fiscal action.

  • I think the number one thing we can do here is having outstanding public health response in all countries.

  • But, you know, we're most concerned here about the U.

  • S.

  • And as I said before, I think that public health response isn't always as visible as we'd like it to be, because it's there's many different layers.

  • There's a federal layer in a state level layer in a local layer and individual there, and I think because we've been ableto communicate, we got some knowledge about the virus from China and how it behaves.

  • And that's enabling us Thio respond appropriately and hopefully bring this under control rapidly.

  • Well, something that were more familiar with That's the jobs report Big Jobs report coming out this Friday do you?

  • I expect to see.

  • I mean, presumably it's way too early to see any implications of the Corona virus on us jobs.

  • Or is it?

  • Uh, I'm not expecting any, and the commentary doesn't seem to be expecting any ADP came out today, I guess, with a surprise to the upside, it's a very good labor market.

  • So, um, you know, I'd expect a good number.

  • Sometimes February has some seasonal effects.

  • That's my big recollection over the years, so it might see a little bit of that.

  • But, um, I think a TTE the time this was taken the labor markets probably doing pretty well.

  • Earlier this conversation, you said that your, um you know, the policy is appropriate now with 50 pieces point rate cut, you got that done.

  • And now you're gonna watch the economy.

  • So does that mean when it comes the economy, it's It's the same kind of economy Watch.

  • You're goingto watch jobs you're going to watch Retail sales are gonna pay more attention to things like, although I know you guys talk to business people all the time, but corporations air saying about how this is going to affect their sales affect their outlook as well.

  • I think it's ah, great timeto have, ah, big web of contacts that the Fed has in the U.

  • S.

  • And around the world.

  • About what?

  • The effects of this fire so gonna be on economic outcomes.

  • We understand it's a human tragedy, and I think we always have to keep that in mind.

  • Would we're in financial markets, though.

  • We're talking about the financial market effects and, uh, you know, I think you get great pieces of information about some industries, you know, really hit hard.

  • Some don't see much of fact.

  • Others might even do better depending on where they are.

  • And I think to be ableto absorb that and piece that together.

  • That's that's where we are right now.

  • What would tell you what indicator?

  • What what set of data?

  • What development again?

  • Stock market development, bond market development, macro data is going to say to the Fed, you know, we thought we had policy right?

  • We thought it was appropriate.

  • But let's say the virus is worsening.

  • Ah, and chances are we'll get at least somewhat worse from here is we see more more cases appearing.

  • Uh, what will tell you policy is no longer appropriate.

  • I think my baseline is that I am expecting a lot more cases to be uncovered here in the U.

  • S.

  • We're doing a lot more testing.

  • There's a lot more awareness about it s so I expect to see a lot of reports of of new cases have been identified.

  • Um, I think it could go either way.

  • You could, you know, that's kind of a high expectation.

  • And then you could see even more cases than the high expectation.

  • Or you could see fewer cases so way.

  • Just don't know at this point, that's what We're trying to be flexible.

  • We're trying to take it day by day, Um, and see how this comes in and see how good the public health responses in the US are there any way we talk about markets and find financial stability?

  • Are there any banking, financial stability issues, bank lending issues that air there front and center of you?

  • When you when you look at this, this new big force in that affecting the economy.

  • We were certainly alert to this and paid a lot of attention, T.

  • Oh, I'm not really seeing a lot of that right now, but we do have good radar on this on will be keeping a close eye on this going forward.

  • I'm not really expecting that, but you never know.

  • So you gotta be very aware of everything that's going on and repercussions that maybe you didn't think about.

  • But I'm not seeing anything so far.

  • Okay, Well, just seems like it's ah, sort of.

  • Ah, it's a new chapter in monetary policy in Central banking.

  • Isn't it something we haven't seen before?

  • Viruses.

  • Yes.

  • You've got Ebola.

  • Well, that's true.

  • But my stage one and now I guess I'm too seven.

  • Okay, so there are cases before we have looked at those cases.

  • They did fade away.

  • This one.

  • Maybe he's going on longer.

  • Jim, I want to thank you for taking time on a special day here at the ST Louis Fed.

  • It's the Homer Jones Memorial lecture.

  • It's an event you hold every year this year honoring John Cochran.

  • He's a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and and I want to bring this up first.

  • All the highlight, and that's why I'm here, because I come out every year for Homer Jones but also, uh, this sense of where monetary policy is and where it's going.

  • Just just get a nutshell.

  • Who was Homer Jones and why was he so important?

  • Not only to the Federal Reserve Bank of ST Louis, but but to the Federal Reserve system in general.

  • He started here, What, in 1958?

  • Yes, he did.

  • He was home.

  • I'm sorry.

  • He was Milton Friedman's teacher when Milton was an undergrad, and he encouraged Milton to go to graduate school.

  • And they were fast friends through their whole careers and, uh, late.

  • Much later, uh, Milton Friedman was at Chicago and Homer Jones came.

  • Here is the research director.

  • But the main thing about Homer Jones is that he was the first research director toe have the bank to academic style research at that time, of a lot of monitoring space stuff.

  • And and then that model was copied all across the Federal Reserve system and in fact, all across central banks worldwide.

  • Um, so he was kind of the leader in that kind of analysis, which is so important for Central Banking today before was mostly just data collection and things like that by Federal Reserve He loves data, that's for sure.

  • And, uh, but then they got into statistical announces econometric analysis, and then they kind of took off from their theories.

  • All kinds of things.

  • S o it certainly mushroomed and then spread across all central banks.

  • What do you think Homer Jones would make of where the Federal Reserve is now or what?

  • I guess the same question to you.

  • I mean, ah, lot of people feel that the Fed is taken on too much.

  • The Fed does not want till this is how this is gonna be.

  • Some of the common criticisms or ideas Fed reserve can't let stock markets correct for the reserve can't let recessions happen.

  • Some people would argue recessions are necessary in economies they happen, they wash out.

  • Excess is, um and in fact, that what we're seeing now, to a certain extent, is keeping emergency policies in place for too long.

  • Ultra low interest rates and bond purchases.

  • What do you make of that?

  • That criticism that thought, you know, one thing is that Homer Jones was a professor during the 19 thirties and Friedman was a student during the during the thirties, and they would say I think that zero interest rates are a sign of tight monetary policy, not a sign of easy monetary policy.

  • And they would emphasize quality measures of money.

  • And there's a long literature about that, Uh, you know, stemming from that.

  • But their experience coming out of the thirties was that monetary response had to be thought of in some other way than just interest rates, and that was dominated the debate for decades after that.

  • But what about you?

  • Is the Fed taking on too much?

  • Is the Fed not letting Cem Cem natural forces work?

  • That might be a little bit difficult, but they're part of business cycles.

  • They're part of economic life cycles.

  • Uh, what our job is to help mitigate business cycles, not eradicate business cycle.

  • So there are ups and downs in the economy.

  • If you run a good monetary policy, you sort of smooth that out.

  • Over time, you get less lower highs and higher lows, I guess, is what you'd say, Um, and that's a good outcome for the economy.

  • And but But still things were happening.

  • Changes happening, innovations happening, distrust person is happening.

  • All those things are natural to the economy.

  • and you do wanna let those things occur and let the transactions occur through markets.

  • But you want to try to smooth it out as best you can.

  • Um, another question.

  • One more practical when it comes to the viruses.

  • You know, running a Federal Reserve Bank is not just going to the policy meetings.

  • That's for emergency.

  • Just But you manage lots of people.

  • You know, there's a whole side of it that is administrative and at a time like this, But here, the ST Louis Fed are you two starting to look at?

  • Wow, contingency plans.

  • What are we gonna do with this?

  • What are we gonna do if that yeah, we're very serious and very focused on this.

  • We've had quite a long management committee meeting, I guess the day before yesterday on this, and we're very much in tune with tracking the virus day to day and thinking about the appropriate policy response at the bank level and handling up special situations that might come up and and sort of ah, ah, very aware attitude among the management team about what's going on.

  • And we don't want to sleep.

  • As as this develops, I wonder if we should expect some kind of system wide, like a Federal Reserve sort of policy on, uh, how to deal with the workplace, how to deal with working at home and all those kinds of things.

  • Yeah, I think one size fits all often doesn't work that while you've got different parts of the Fed in different cities, they've had different challenges in different places.

  • So I think you do want to coordinate, but you also want to tailor the decisions to the particular area that that you're in on the threat level on the risks that you're taking in that particular area at a time.

  • A lot of the banks, you know, especially businesswise the bank's air specialized in certain areas and so different banks have different businesses that they they're handling and running for the Federal Reserve.

  • And so those have different requirements about from a management perspective, but that I just I would appreciate corporate ce that are going through this and other entities that are going through this.

  • I mean, you really have to be on your toes that you have to manage very carefully because there are a lot of considerations about exactly how to handle things and risks are evolving.

  • And and I've talked to business contacts, and they're doing exactly the same thing there, having meetings they're thinking about.

  • Well, what about this?

  • What about that?

  • What are the trade offs?

  • How can we play this to our best, Given the situation?

Let's start with a big move this week because two weeks ahead of a scheduled meeting, just a couple of hours after a G seven announcement from the finance ministers and central bankers were going to do what's appropriate.

Subtitles and vocabulary

Click the word to look it up Click the word to find further inforamtion about it