Name: 【TED】J. Marshall Shepherd: 3 kinds of bias that shape your worldview (3 kinds of bias that shape your worldview | J. Marshall Shepherd)
Uploaded: 2019-01-02T16:35:55.000Z
Duration: 12 min 22 s
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I have a bachelor's, master's and PhD in physical meteorology,

And so with that comes four questions, always.

This is one prediction I will always get right.

"Dr. Shepherd, what's the weather going to be tomorrow?"

"My daughter is getting married next September, it's an outdoor wedding.

Not kidding, I get those, and I don't know the answer to that,

"Dr. Shepherd, do you believe in climate change?"

Now, I have to gather myself every time I get that question.

My son, he's 10 -- he believes in the tooth fairy.

And he needs to get over that, because I'm losing dollars, fast.

Bank of America building, there, in Atlanta.

"Do you believe, if you go to the top of that building

and throw a ball off, it's going to fall?"

You never hear that, because gravity is a thing.

The American Association for the Advancement of Science, AAAS,

one of the leading organizations in science,

queried scientists and the public on different science topics.

genetically modified food, animal research, human evolution.

And look at what the scientists say about those,

the people that actually study those topics, in red,

That scientists and the public are so far apart on these science issues.

Well, I'll come a little bit closer to home for me,

believe that humans are contributing to climate change.

and one that I've been thinking about quite a bit.

I think that one thing that shapes perceptions in the public, about science,

Because I want to talk about three elements of that:

Now, these sound like big, fancy, academic terms, and they are.

But when I describe them, you're going to be like, "Oh!

I recognize that; I even know somebody that does that."

Finding evidence that supports what we already believe.

Now, we're probably all a little bit guilty of that at times.

"Hey, Dr. Shepherd, I have 20 inches of global warming in my yard,

what are you guys talking about, climate change?"

It's a cute tweet, it makes me chuckle as well.

But it's oh, so fundamentally scientifically flawed.

that the person tweeting doesn't understand

the difference between weather and climate.

Weather is your mood, climate is your personality.

Your mood today doesn't necessarily tell me anything about your personality,

nor does a cold day tell me anything about climate change,

Two scholars from Cornell came up with the Dunning-Kruger effect.

If you go look up the peer-reviewed paper for this,

you will see all kinds of fancy terminology:

it's an illusory superiority complex, thinking we know things.

In other words, people think they know more than they do.

Or they underestimate what they don't know.

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【TED】J. Marshall Shepherd: 3 kinds of bias that shape your worldview (3 kinds of bias that shape your worldview | J. Marshall Shepherd)

cognitive

perceive

accurate

bias