Name: 【TED】Liv Boeree: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion (3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion | Liv Boeree)
Uploaded: 2018-10-22T15:59:26.000Z
Duration: 6 min 8 s
Description: Thousands of YouTube videos with English-Chinese subtitles! Now you can learn to understand native speakers, expand your vocabulary, and improve your pronunciation...

To-infinitive

and today, I want to talk about three things that the game has taught me

around decision-making that I find apply to everyday life.

Now the first of these things is about luck.

Now, like poker, life is also a game of skill and luck,

and when it comes to the biggest things we care about --

these outcomes don't only depend on the quality of our decision-making,

For example, we can be perfectly health-conscious

and still get unlucky with something like cancer.

Or we can smoke 20 a day and live to a ripe old age,

and this kind of ambiguity can make it hard for us to know

especially when we're experiencing a lot of success.

I won a really big poker tournament known as the European Poker Tour.

And because I'd only been playing full-time for about a year,

when I won, I assumed I must be rather brilliant.

that I not only got rather lazy with studying the game,

started playing in the biggest tournaments I could

And then my profit graph went from a thing of beauty

with this worrying downhill trend for a long time,

until I finally realized that I was overestimating my skill level,

And this kind of reminds me of what we've been seeing

in the cryptocurrency space, at least in 2017,

where the only thing that's been going up faster than the markets themselves

is the number of "senior investment specialists"

Now I'm not saying it's not possible to have a strategic edge,

but at the same time, it's very easy to feel like a genius

when you're in a market that's going up so fast

that even the worst strategies are making a profit.

it's important to take a moment to really ask ourselves

because our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning.

is the importance of quantifying my thinking.

When you're playing, you can't just get away with going,

That's just going to lose you a bunch of money,

because poker is a game of probabilities and precision,

and so you have to train yourself to think in numbers.

thinking vaguely about something really important, like,

"It's unlikely I'll forget what I want to say in my TED Talk,"

Trust me, it helps a lot with the planning process.

And the thing is, almost anything that could possibly happen here today,

can also be expressed as a probability, too.

So now I also try to speak in numbers as well.

"Hey, Liv, do you think you're going to come along to that thing tonight?"

instead of just saying to them, "Yeah, probably,"

Because -- I know that sounds a little odd --

but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter

of what people understand the word "probably" to mean,

at actually conveying any real information.

So if you guys catch yourselves using these vague words,

try, instead, using numbers, because when we speak in numbers,

we know what lands in the other person's brain.

Now, the third thing I want to touch on today is intuition.

How often have you seen these kinds of inspirational memes

[Always trust your gut feeling and never second-guess.]

These are some of the best poker players in the world right now.

Do they look like people who live purely off feelings and intuitions?

Obviously, these guys are about slow, careful analysis,

and that's because the game has outgrown the days

where pure street smarts and people-reading

And that's because our intuitions aren't nearly as perfect

I mean, it'd be great, whenever we're in a tough spot,

to just have an answer appear to us from some magical source of inspiration.

But in reality, our gut is extremely vulnerable

to all kinds of wishful thinking and biases.

conclude that it's best-suited for everyday things

Subtitles ListPlay Video

【TED】Liv Boeree: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion (3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion | Liv Boeree)

vulnerable

assume

conscious

enormous