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  • There are some things Apple just loves, design, aluminum, excuse me... and secrecy.

  • To keep a surprise, it hires former FBI agents, searches more bags than TSA, and disguises

  • its products with fake companies likeIP Application Development Ltd” - IPAD.

  • But there are some things even the world's most profitable company can't hide.

  • This is a list of companies acquired by Apple.

  • Most make perfect sense - Authentec became Touch ID, Siri, well, Siri, But, around two

  • thousand fourteen, you start to see a pattern:

  • First, a company creating tiny, super-bright, high-density displays.,

  • Then one specializing in eye-tracking, an augmented reality headset, and a couple AR

  • software startups.

  • Plus a handful of patents and job descriptions, all suggesting the same thing: smart, augmented

  • reality glasses.

  • Directions, the weather, really anything, projected right onto your vision.

  • The technology may not seem ready, we may not seem ready, and others have already tried

  • and failed.

  • All of which could be said about the iPhone in 2007.

  • Of course, acquisitions are just, acquisitions, there are no guarantees, and Apple loves saying

  • no, it doesn't very often release a new product.

  • But there's good reason to think smart glasses are coming, Apple is the perfect company to

  • make them, and now is the time to do it.

  • If you're at all skeptical, well, you should be.

  • Every other week we hear a new version of the same madlib: Blank technology is on the

  • verge of radically disrupting blank industry.

  • Watch out!

  • We're about to reinvent wearable blockchains, or leverage proactive mesh networks, and the

  • world will never be the same

  • The few experts who see where an industry is really going get drowned out by a sea of

  • companies promoting theirworld changingidea.

  • Which makes it pretty tough to predict the future.

  • So when I say smart glasses, and you say I've heard this before, well, I can't really

  • blame you.

  • But there are still ways of separating a hero from a zero.

  • The Gartner Hype Cycle explains why new technology seems to come out of nowhere and then disappear

  • with no explanation.

  • Progress is never a straight line, but it's also not random, it tends to follow a pattern:

  • First, a very primitive prototype gets some attention.

  • The media, desperate for clicks, jumps right over its flaws to its best-case scenario,

  • 10, 15 years from now.

  • And not just in tech, A dietary study with a tiny sample size became the headlineWhy

  • You Must Eat Chocolate Daily”.

  • That's what you and I see.

  • So we're inevitably disappointed when we get a glimpse of reality.

  • Then, while we've mostly forgotten about it, real progress is made.

  • This is where r/Futurology claims it can cure cancer, This is where you addBlockchain

  • to the name of your Ice Tea company, boosting its stock 200%, and this is when we're told

  • it's coming in 3-5 years, every

  • 3-5 years.

  • Some technologies die trying to get attention, some are only hype.

  • Virtual Reality is somewhere around here, Far enough we know its viable for games and

  • entertainment.

  • But while it steals our attention, Augmented Reality quietly moves forward.

  • Sure, it's earlier and more uncertain.

  • But its potential is much, much bigger.

  • And Apple seems to agree:

  • It's been a huge focus of the company since iOS 11.

  • Tim Cook even compared its promise to the smartphone.

  • I mean, listen to how their website describes it: “Imagine if the line between the virtual

  • and the real simply didn't exist.

  • Your classroom could become the cosmos.

  • The past could be as vivid as the present.

  • And this is just the beginning.

  • Welcome to a new world.”

  • That's prettybold for what's currently just a few games and the ability to sample

  • IKEA furniture.

  • Of course, all of this is brand new, But even if there are really great apps in a year or

  • two,

  • There's one, huge problem: For it to work, you constantly have to hold up your phone,

  • or dare I say, 13 inch iPad.

  • It's justawkward.

  • AR is kind of the new drone - incredibly hyped, And sure, it's fun for a minute or two,

  • but only practical for a few, specific applications.

  • Unless, Apple knows this.

  • Why invest so much time and money?

  • Because they know what we don't:

  • This is just an intermediary between today's phones and tomorrow's glasses.

  • It's a very clever solution to a big problem:

  • If Apple wants to keep its glasses secret, it can't tell developers, and apps won't

  • be ready when it launches.

  • But what if they could have their cake and eat it too?

  • That's ARKit.

  • Developers can start working now, without knowing what's coming.

  • Meanwhile, Apple collects feedback and improves the technology.

  • By the time glasses arrive, they'll have already proven their value:

  • Directions projected right onto the street, Translation of the world around you, Context

  • for your day, and so on.

  • Plus, I mean, the product names itself: iSight, EyePod, EyePhone, iGlasses, iWearcome on.

  • Except - none of this is exclusive to Apple.

  • In fact, some company calledGooglekinda already tried this.

  • Why would Apple be any more successful?

  • Apple is rarely the first to do something, and glasses would be no exception,

  • Microsoft introduced the Hololens in 2015, there's Magic Leap

  • And Intel Vaunt, Snapchat Spectacles, sold from a vending machine somehow uglier than

  • the app itself, and the Vue, Get it?

  • Because vuerhymes with blew, as in they really blew it, naming their company a pun

  • Okay, look at their websight: “your glasses will be able to do more than meets the eye.”

  • I See, This is not a business, it's just an excuse to make puns.

  • What a sorry sight/site.

  • But most interesting, is Google Glass, and the million reasons why it failed:

  • Like, to do anything, you tilt your head 30 degrees and speak - OK Glass, discreetly take

  • a photo, or, use a touchpad on the side of your head.

  • Both equally terrible.

  • It was expensive, poorly marketed, and lacked a compelling feature.

  • But, most of all, it just lookswell, let's say there's room for improvement

  • The challenge of all these is just as much design as technology.

  • Like, I think this joke writes itself

  • But if there's any company that can turn a tool you have to wear into an accessory

  • you want to, it's Apple.

  • Glass spent years being developed in public.

  • But glasses should be released for quick, mass adoption and acceptance - something Apple

  • might know a thing or two about.

  • They should also be demoed in person - giving Apple's 500 retail stores a huge advantage

  • over, say Microsoft's hundred.

  • I even know the perfect year to release it, although, we'll see, hindsight iswell,

  • you get it.

  • But seriously: isn't it just way too early?

  • Technology arrives in waves, first, early adopters, then the public, eventually, even

  • the luddites.

  • But between these is an invisible hole, To see it, we have to remember the Hype Cycle.

  • Here at peak excitement, it's very easy to get a few users - these are early adopters

  • - and they give the illusion of momentum.

  • The hole is the steep descent that follows - after the hype, getting users is much, much

  • harder.

  • It takes a lot of kinetic energy for a product to pass this filter.

  • A journalist will wear any piece of glass with a camera taped to it,

  • But Apple designs for the masses - only what can survive the gap.

  • Which creates two challenges for glasses:

  • First, the technology has to be really good.

  • The Watch proves they can make small batteries last a whole day and design a tiny but mighty

  • system-on-a-chip,

  • It would need a bright, high-density display like microLED - which it's already developing.

  • But then there's the camera - which brings us to the second challenge: The other kind

  • of optics:

  • it has to be, wellnot creepy.

  • Consumers will think Black Mirror, The Circle , Wall-E, and so on.

  • Even with Apple's focus on privacy, these are very real challenges, and could delay

  • its release.

  • But glasses are more than a new product - they're a critical part of Apple's strategy:

  • Moving in the direction of more transparent, more personal technology,

  • Because, the smartphone won't last forever.

  • The only way a company so dependent on one product can survive is to replace itself,

  • not wait for someone else to.

  • It's a philosophy rooted in the company by Steve Jobs, and one reason I recommend

  • his official biography.

  • With Audible, you can listen on your way to school or work, at the gym, or whenever else.

  • I started listening to audiobooks in high school and it really changed my habits - It

  • turns the necessary but very boring moments of your life into the ones you look forward

  • to.

  • I'm almost always listening to at least one book, and one of my favorite things is

  • reading about the CEO of a company I like:

  • For the Grand Theory of Apple, Amazon, and this video, I learned much of the content

  • by understanding the person behind the company - their personality, what motivates them,

  • and how they came to start their business.

  • And because this author talked for hours with Steve Jobs and the people around him, it has

  • a lot of detail you just won't find anywhere else.

  • Another is The Everything Store - the story of Jeff Bezos and Amazon.

  • I'm convinced there's no human on earth like Bezos, his mindset is really interesting

  • to hear about.

  • And speaking of Amazon, prime members can listen to Audible for only $4.95 a month for

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Apple Glasses Are Coming - Here's Why

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    Samuel posted on 2018/08/02
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