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  • Pearson: This is the Friday, October 14, 2016

  • version of the Market Plus segment.

  • Joining me now is Walt Hackney and Elaine Kub.

  • Guys, welcome back.

  • Thank you, thank you, Mike.

  • Pearson: Now, Walt, our first question goes to you

  • and it is an issue that I'm sure you're very

  • familiar with.

  • This is from Lee Reichmuth in Nebraska from Twitter.

  • Lee wants to know, what does the cattle industry

  • need to do at this point because anyone unhedged

  • for the last two years is close to bankruptcy?

  • What can producers, what should producers be doing

  • from today going forward to stave off bankruptcy

  • for these independent producers?

  • Hackney: Many of them cannot and bankruptcy is

  • going to be a way of life as we approach the deep

  • fall of this year.

  • There's a syndrome out there right now among

  • cattle feeders that the feeder cattle, if you

  • will, are unhedgeable, there's nothing they can

  • do, they're paralyzed and they are a victim of the

  • marketing process that's going to take them into

  • bankruptcy.

  • And I know how that sounds but it is a basic fact

  • that there's too often these producers have an

  • opportunity to get away from that attitude but

  • they've got to go now finally to a professional

  • trader that can give them the proper techniques to

  • get their hedging program done.

  • I've got a customer in Saginaw, Texas and he's a

  • huge operator, he is so big that you would think

  • that he cannot, his exposure has got to be

  • phenomenal in regard to his cash flow needs and

  • his risk protection.

  • He called me last night and we had a long visit.

  • Every hoof of cattle he buys, which is annually

  • about 35,000, maybe 40,000 head of cattle a year,

  • every hoof of cattle he buys he hedges and is

  • easily done and he hooks a $60 a head tag to their

  • tail and quits.

  • He doesn't go for the big money, he's not going for

  • the gold ring off the carousel.

  • He's going for $60 a head and that's all he wants to

  • make on them.

  • He made it when the other cattle feeders were losing

  • $400.

  • He made it last year when they were losing $400 to

  • $500.

  • This year they're losing anywhere from not quite

  • break even to a couple hundred bucks a head.

  • He has made money all the way through this.

  • And there he is, hedgeability of these

  • feeder cattle if they'll take advantage of a

  • professional marketer in the commodity end of it.

  • Pearson: Elaine?

  • Kub: I'll weigh in on this because there may be some

  • scenarios where the size of the contract it might

  • be easier to do it if you're at a large scale,

  • in some cases, than it is at a small scale, but in

  • that case I would suggest that people go talk to

  • their crop insurance agent about the livestock risk,

  • the LRP, there's livestock crop insurance, it's not

  • really crop insurance but it is a risk protection.

  • It is effectively a put of any size.

  • And the details of it, you should speak to your

  • agent, but I just wanted to point that out that it

  • can be done at any size.

  • Pearson: It is out there at any size operation and

  • it's effectively a subsidized put.

  • That's what it is.

  • Hackney: Elaine, since this is part of your

  • business, do you understand, which I do

  • not, but do you understand what Pete Bond was telling

  • me in regard to his techniques of putting

  • these -- he's got a daughter your age and she

  • does 100% of that by herself in his business.

  • Kub: Sounds like you guys need to get a new analyst

  • on here, yeah.

  • Hackney: She has designed a hedge program that is

  • phenomenal and that's what they use and it's unlike,

  • he'll explain it to me every time I talk to him

  • and when we get done I couldn't repeat him.

  • Do you see the potential of a hedge in cattle

  • through the techniques you're aware of?

  • Kub: Sure.

  • You would lock in your selling price through a

  • put or a short futures that can be done.

  • And in the cattle industry, and I don't know

  • exactly what your friend is doing in Texas, but if

  • he's feeding in that instance he has also got

  • to lock in his input costs, which is primarily

  • feed, that's the easy part especially now when corn

  • is $3.

  • This is a no brainer.

  • Pearson: How far ahead are you locking in feed costs

  • here at $3 cash corn?

  • Kub: Twelve months or more.

  • You look to December 2017, those futures are $3.90 so

  • that is an opportunity for everybody to look at this

  • and say, if I'm going to be producing corn in 2017

  • at $3.90 that doesn't sound so bad and if I need

  • to be feeding cattle for the next year and I can

  • buy it now for $3, that sounds pretty darn good.

  • So there's opportunities here.

  • Pearson: I didn't mean to interrupt.

  • He's locking in inputs, locking in his selling

  • price, but there have been times over this past year

  • with the incredible volatility where there is

  • no place you can hedge and find a $60 profit, but

  • there are other options you could use.

  • Kub: Well, and what I'm suspecting he's doing or

  • his daughter is doing is that, you're right, not

  • every day you can go to the market and find your

  • $60 but the days that you can find it he's not

  • getting greedy and waiting for $75, he's locking it

  • in.

  • Hackney: He catalogues an inventory of cattle, as

  • you suggest, cannot be worked into that program

  • and as that market moves he takes portions or all

  • of those catalogue inventory and he puts them

  • into that $60 a head program.

  • That's what he does.

  • Kub: That would be a minimum size.

  • Hackney: Possibly, I'm sorry I brought that into

  • your program here, Mike.

  • Pearson: That's helpful news for a lot of us.

  • Hackney: I get an incessant parade of cattle

  • feeders calling me asking me how they can, if there

  • is a hedge potential.

  • I'm not smart enough in the marketing in regard to

  • commodity to be able to give them any advice.

  • Kub: Well and like you say, Mike, some days

  • there's not and you wouldn't make money.

  • Pearson: Well now, Elaine, next question to you and

  • this one you kind of talked about on the show.

  • This is from Ben on Twitter in Jesup, Iowa.

  • He wants to know, where do you see the low in these

  • markets?

  • Kub: Well, I'm on Twitter so I saw Ben's question in

  • advance and I knew I was kind of spoiling it in the

  • show.

  • And to be honest the numbers that are the dates

  • that I said in the show are just me looking at a

  • chart.

  • What he's referring to is earlier in the summer I

  • did this statistical analysis of what date of

  • the year would you be most likely to see a corn

  • market high and it was June 18th and that worked

  • out great this year which was fantastically lucky

  • and I feel fantastic.

  • And I haven't done the full statistics about what

  • date of the year would you be most likely to see a

  • low.

  • But in these normally abundant years it looks

  • like there have been some lows in very late August

  • and then the crop size gets trimmed and then that

  • was the low, which that may very well be what

  • happened this year.

  • And some years there's kind of a low in November

  • if perhaps the crop gets bigger and bigger through

  • harvest, which is not the case this year.

  • Pearson: Right, but we're seeing a divergence where

  • corn that August low, we hit that $3.18 or $3.17

  • and change and the crop gets smaller.

  • Beans, we did hit a low or kind of a low in August,

  • now the crop has grown so do you expect that

  • November low or are we going to grow this bean

  • crop all the way through January?

  • Kub: I think beans are going to continue to have

  • some good news with continued buying.

  • There's going to be commercial business

  • actually going in there and buying those beans on