Subtitles section Play video Print subtitles Pearson: This is the Friday, October 14, 2016 version of the Market Plus segment. Joining me now is Walt Hackney and Elaine Kub. Guys, welcome back. Thank you, thank you, Mike. Pearson: Now, Walt, our first question goes to you and it is an issue that I'm sure you're very familiar with. This is from Lee Reichmuth in Nebraska from Twitter. Lee wants to know, what does the cattle industry need to do at this point because anyone unhedged for the last two years is close to bankruptcy? What can producers, what should producers be doing from today going forward to stave off bankruptcy for these independent producers? Hackney: Many of them cannot and bankruptcy is going to be a way of life as we approach the deep fall of this year. There's a syndrome out there right now among cattle feeders that the feeder cattle, if you will, are unhedgeable, there's nothing they can do, they're paralyzed and they are a victim of the marketing process that's going to take them into bankruptcy. And I know how that sounds but it is a basic fact that there's too often these producers have an opportunity to get away from that attitude but they've got to go now finally to a professional trader that can give them the proper techniques to get their hedging program done. I've got a customer in Saginaw, Texas and he's a huge operator, he is so big that you would think that he cannot, his exposure has got to be phenomenal in regard to his cash flow needs and his risk protection. He called me last night and we had a long visit. Every hoof of cattle he buys, which is annually about 35,000, maybe 40,000 head of cattle a year, every hoof of cattle he buys he hedges and is easily done and he hooks a $60 a head tag to their tail and quits. He doesn't go for the big money, he's not going for the gold ring off the carousel. He's going for $60 a head and that's all he wants to make on them. He made it when the other cattle feeders were losing $400. He made it last year when they were losing $400 to $500. This year they're losing anywhere from not quite break even to a couple hundred bucks a head. He has made money all the way through this. And there he is, hedgeability of these feeder cattle if they'll take advantage of a professional marketer in the commodity end of it. Pearson: Elaine? Kub: I'll weigh in on this because there may be some scenarios where the size of the contract it might be easier to do it if you're at a large scale, in some cases, than it is at a small scale, but in that case I would suggest that people go talk to their crop insurance agent about the livestock risk, the LRP, there's livestock crop insurance, it's not really crop insurance but it is a risk protection. It is effectively a put of any size. And the details of it, you should speak to your agent, but I just wanted to point that out that it can be done at any size. Pearson: It is out there at any size operation and it's effectively a subsidized put. That's what it is. Hackney: Elaine, since this is part of your business, do you understand, which I do not, but do you understand what Pete Bond was telling me in regard to his techniques of putting these -- he's got a daughter your age and she does 100% of that by herself in his business. Kub: Sounds like you guys need to get a new analyst on here, yeah. Hackney: She has designed a hedge program that is phenomenal and that's what they use and it's unlike, he'll explain it to me every time I talk to him and when we get done I couldn't repeat him. Do you see the potential of a hedge in cattle through the techniques you're aware of? Kub: Sure. You would lock in your selling price through a put or a short futures that can be done. And in the cattle industry, and I don't know exactly what your friend is doing in Texas, but if he's feeding in that instance he has also got to lock in his input costs, which is primarily feed, that's the easy part especially now when corn is $3. This is a no brainer. Pearson: How far ahead are you locking in feed costs here at $3 cash corn? Kub: Twelve months or more. You look to December 2017, those futures are $3.90 so that is an opportunity for everybody to look at this and say, if I'm going to be producing corn in 2017 at $3.90 that doesn't sound so bad and if I need to be feeding cattle for the next year and I can buy it now for $3, that sounds pretty darn good. So there's opportunities here. Pearson: I didn't mean to interrupt. He's locking in inputs, locking in his selling price, but there have been times over this past year with the incredible volatility where there is no place you can hedge and find a $60 profit, but there are other options you could use. Kub: Well, and what I'm suspecting he's doing or his daughter is doing is that, you're right, not every day you can go to the market and find your $60 but the days that you can find it he's not getting greedy and waiting for $75, he's locking it in. Hackney: He catalogues an inventory of cattle, as you suggest, cannot be worked into that program and as that market moves he takes portions or all of those catalogue inventory and he puts them into that $60 a head program. That's what he does. Kub: That would be a minimum size. Hackney: Possibly, I'm sorry I brought that into your program here, Mike. Pearson: That's helpful news for a lot of us. Hackney: I get an incessant parade of cattle feeders calling me asking me how they can, if there is a hedge potential. I'm not smart enough in the marketing in regard to commodity to be able to give them any advice. Kub: Well and like you say, Mike, some days there's not and you wouldn't make money. Pearson: Well now, Elaine, next question to you and this one you kind of talked about on the show. This is from Ben on Twitter in Jesup, Iowa. He wants to know, where do you see the low in these markets? Kub: Well, I'm on Twitter so I saw Ben's question in advance and I knew I was kind of spoiling it in the show. And to be honest the numbers that are the dates that I said in the show are just me looking at a chart. What he's referring to is earlier in the summer I did this statistical analysis of what date of the year would you be most likely to see a corn market high and it was June 18th and that worked out great this year which was fantastically lucky and I feel fantastic. And I haven't done the full statistics about what date of the year would you be most likely to see a low. But in these normally abundant years it looks like there have been some lows in very late August and then the crop size gets trimmed and then that was the low, which that may very well be what happened this year. And some years there's kind of a low in November if perhaps the crop gets bigger and bigger through harvest, which is not the case this year. Pearson: Right, but we're seeing a divergence where corn that August low, we hit that $3.18 or $3.17 and change and the crop gets smaller. Beans, we did hit a low or kind of a low in August, now the crop has grown so do you expect that November low or are we going to grow this bean crop all the way through January? Kub: I think beans are going to continue to have some good news with continued buying. There's going to be commercial business actually going in there and buying those beans on