Placeholder Image

Subtitles section Play video

  • It’s not a great omen for next week’s climate talks in Paris,

  • but Britain’s choosen today to slash subsidizes for carbon reduction

  • scrap the billion pound support for carbon capture and storage, and exempt the heaviest industries from environmental tariffs.

  • Binding the deal was already going to be hard to secure in Paris

  • but the US, wary of anything which would need support from the congress, which remains in denial.

  • Mentioning global warming in any investment conference

  • brings out plenty of skeptics in the investment community

  • who share the view of most of the republican primary contestants

  • that is that the whole thing is a scam cooked up by left wingers.

  • Yet even these investors who reject these scientific consensus

  • should be paying attention to what is going on in the climate.

  • That is not because of rising sea levels,

  • although anyone with a very long investment horizon might want to avoid investing in low lying city property.

  • It's not because of worsening natural disasters or damaged farmlands either,

  • although those who invest in catastrophe bonds should really be concerned.

  • The real reason that investors need to pay attention to the climate, simply, is that so many others is beginning to do so.

  • They're screening at the biggest carbon emitters or pressing for change at companies they hold.

  • This week, Insurer Allianz said that it was going to sell two hundred and twenty five million euros of shares

  • and run off 3.9 billion euros of bonds in big coal producers and power generators

  • as part of a wave of investors imposing environmental filters.

  • The price of coal, that’s the red line here, adjusted for inflation, has collapsed recently,

  • something environmentalist have tended to be delighted about,

  • but the blue line suggests that it should be a little less smug.

  • Well the prices collapsed thanks to weaker Chinese economy in the opening of new mines,

  • the production showed by the blue line is only very very slightly down from its recent record highs.

  • That is of course the amount of coal dug up and burnt which matters to the environment, not the price.

  • Still, there are a couple of decent reasons

  • why an investor might reasonably worry about exposure to carbon intensive companies.

  • First of all, it leaves them exposed to the risk that politicians will finally take serious action,

  • no matter how unlikely that may seem at the moment.

  • That is a risk that anyone exposed to high carbon companies is automatically running.

  • There is some slight recent evidence that companies which cut the amount of carbon emissions

  • they produced per unit of sales have out performed.

  • As you can see on this chart from BlackRock, it divides up companies into the quintiles

  • that is the groups of one fifth each that have done the most and least to improve in terms of carbon. So reducing carbon.

  • These guys at the top clearly outperformed the wider market over the past couple of years.

  • But it hasn't has not a lot of evidence this is worked over a longer period,

  • but of course the companies that are most likely to improve are the worst at the moment.

  • So this isn’t necessary an argument for buying companies which have already made the effort.

  • Quite the opposite, maybe you should be buying those which are currently the worst.

  • Secondly, holding Smokestack industries makes you a target for the green lobby.

  • Pension funds, insurers and big brands keen to protect their public image.

  • This second risk is really the most important.

  • The more institutions that join the divestment campaign,

  • the more damage will be done to shares and coal miners, oil companies and power generators.

  • Other investors should be paying attention not because they want to do their bit for the climate,

  • but because they want to sell before the price falls.

  • Smart investors shouldn't just try to get out early,

  • they should also prepare to get back in. Matters that might sound.

  • If institutional selling drives the price down enough to create a significant carbon risk premium,

  • it will be a great buying opportunity.

  • You will be rewarded for holding those big polluters.

  • Well, after all as British chancellor George Osborne managed to demonstrate today,

  • when the going gets tough, politicians will usually choose industry over the environment.

  • So that means staying out of coal miners for the moment,

  • but being ready to buy back in when prices get really distressed.

It’s not a great omen for next week’s climate talks in Paris,

Subtitles and vocabulary

Click the word to look it up Click the word to find further inforamtion about it