Name: 【TED】Rainer Strack: The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 — and how to start solving it now
Uploaded: 2015-02-17T05:33:21.000Z
Duration: 12 min 52 s
Description: Thousands of YouTube videos with English-Chinese subtitles! Now you can learn to understand native speakers, expand your vocabulary, and improve your pronunciation...

Adverbs of degree

That means I was born in 1964
in a small town in Germany.

The hospital's maternity ward
was really stressed out

because a lot of babies were born
on this gray November day.

1964 was the year with the highest
birth rate ever in Germany:

What you can see here
is the German age pyramid,

and there, the small black point
at the top, that's me.

In red, you can see the potential
working-age population,

and I'm actually only interested
in this red area.

of how this age structure will develop
over the next couple of years.

and I, with many other baby boomers,
will retire in 2030.

of birth rates for predicting
this red area.

so the potential
working-age population in 2030,

And if you compare this red area in 2030
with the red area in 2014,

So before I show you
the rest of the world,

So what we know from
this picture is that the labor supply,

will go down in Germany,
and will go down significantly.

As you might know, the consultant's
favorite answer to any question is,

We looked at the GDP
and productivity growth of Germany

if Germany wants to continue
this GDP and productivity growth,

how many people Germany would need
to support this growth.

And this is the green line: labor demand.

So Germany will run into
a major talent shortage very quickly.

which is more than 20 percent
of our current workforce,

Germany has to significantly
increase migration,

by the way, we just
lowered it this year —

If Germany fails here,
Germany will stagnate.

Because the workers are not there
who can generate this growth.

And companies will look
for talents somewhere else.

Now, we simulated labor supply
and labor demand

for the largest 15 economies in the world,

representing more than 70 percent
of world GDP,

and the overall picture
looks like this by 2020.

and gray are those countries
which are borderline.

So by 2020, we still see a labor surplus
in some countries,

but this picture will change
dramatically by 2030.

By 2030, we will face
a global workforce crisis

including three
out of the four BRIC countries.

China, with its former
one-child policy, will be hit,

in reality, the situation
will be even more challenging.

What you can see here are average numbers.

and broke them down
into different skill levels,

were even higher shortfalls
for high-skilled people

and a partial surplus
for low-skilled workers.

we will face a big
skill mismatch in the future,

upskilling for governments and companies.

Now, the next thing we looked into
was robots, automation, technology.

Will technology change this picture
and boost productivity?