Name: What does the Iran war mean for Russia – and Ukraine drone warfare? | DW News
Uploaded: 2026-03-09T17:10:00.000Z
Duration: 14 min 41 s
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The effects of the war in Iran are being felt far beyond the Middle east.

And I'm sure many of you have noticed this in the past week.

But there are also questions about what this conflict means for Russia and its war in Ukraine.

And that's something I'm going to unpack in a moment with my guest Ivana Stradna.

But before we do that, it's interesting to point out that years of war means Ukraine also has valuable know how that it can share, like how to fight Iranian made shahed drones that Russia's used on the battlefield to devastating effect.

Iran has fired off thousands of these drones since the US and Israel started attacking it over a week ago.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has offered to share that knowledge and will send experts to advise the US and Middle Eastern countries on how to repel Iranian drone attacks.

He was speaking in Kyiv on Sunday with the new Dutch Prime Minister Rob Yetin.

Let's hear some of what Zelenskyy had to say.

As you all know, countries in the Middle east and the United States have asked Ukraine for support.

We will provide them with the necessary means, first and foremost, expertise and the experience of our military in defending against shahed drones and cruise missile.

It's great to welcome Ivana Stradna, now a research fellow at the foundation for Defence of Democracy's Russia program in Washington.

Now Ukraine is going to help countries in the Middle east defend themselves against Iranian drones.

I think this is extremely important because Zelensky understands perfectly that Russia and China and Iran are working together and why it matters.

It matters because he experienced that axis of aggressors, how they have been impacting Ukraine.

To go back to the story of drones, Ukraine has an incredible knowledge how such a cheap weapons can actually have very impactful impact.

And he understands how Shahid drones actually were used also in Ukraine.

And now he's willing to use that expertise and to help the United States and America's allies to defend themselves.

But to zoom out, we also have to understand why it matters.

Number one, drones are extremely cheap and to intercept them like right now think about like Patriot system and stuff like that.

So that's precisely what Ukraine has developed quite cheap ways of defending itself from such weapons.

And the second thing which is strategic, I think it's extremely important for Ukraine to use that also as a leverage when it comes to negotiations.

What we have observed over the past few months.

Something that worried me very much about Russian attacks on critical infrastructure and Putin's use of ballistic missiles.

And really Ukraine needs more defense on that point.

So the argument that the west had either we don't have capacity to help you, which is exactly why Russia has been working very hard to ramp up that.

So Zelensky can also now use his knowledge, but

also his expertise, use that as a leverage with the United States to, to maybe ask American President to help with all the weapons that Ukraine actually needs.

Yeah, let's talk a little bit more about that leverage in specifics.

As we know Western allies have been reluct reluctant to supply Ukraine with the kinds of long range weapons like the Tomahawk and the Taurus, weapons that could theoretically strike where Russia produces its own military drones, for example.

Could this change if Zelensky uses his leverage properly?

So there are two reasons why the west has been reluctant to supply Ukraine with all the weapons that it needs to put Russia on the defensive.

Number one is that actually the west is suffering with its own defense, you know, capabilities right now.

And the second thing is the fears of escalation.

And the second argument is absolutely ridiculous because it's Russia that started this war and all those fears about Putin's threat, nuclear threat.

So you know, if you provide Ukraine with long range missiles, we are going to, you know, put our nukes on alert, whatever.

This is a psychological weapon that Russia has been using to make sure that the west does not support Ukraine and provide Ukraine with the weapons to put Russia on the defensive.

But the first argument is also extremely important.

Look, this is, we are entering the fifth year of Russia's full scale invasion and I think it's really pastime also for, for the west to put its act together and to ramp up their also defense sector and capabilities.

Because make no mistake, this war is not going to end anytime soon.

Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are working together and they are more than happy to expand their capabilities.

So the sooner we understand how a new generation warfare operates, the better.

What do you mean by a new generation of warfare?

So the Russian military operates a little bit differently from the Western military.

And a lot of people in the west for a Russian new generation of warfare, they talk about hybrid war.

So basically Russia has a different way of understanding war.

So I'll just give you a very concrete example.

What happened recently in Poland when it comes to drone incursion, what happened recently with cutting, see cable across the west, different assassination and sabotage activities.

Just below the threshold of war that Russia is using to test, to test the West.

My concern, we have to think about, you know, always the Red Team and how Russia might escalate below the threshold of war somewhere, you know, in the Baltic states, for example, in the future, where Putin might actually challenge NATO and to make sure the west and NATO will not respond.

And that's precisely why we need to think about providing Ukraine right now in 2026, all the weapons that Ukraine needs.

So Putin is not emboldened to continue because that was in the past testing.

And make no mistake, he understands that NATO is very polarized, especially now with what's happening in Iran.

He would be more than happy to expand our Western attention and to see what's going to stick.

Which brings me to a very important point.

Oftentimes, people in the west like to think their adversaries are thinking like them and process information.

Putin, his ultimate goal is truly to rewrite a global order.

And what he likes to talk about, put forward a multipolar world.

He does not need to send tanks and jets to all any on the Western capitals, whether in Berlin, whether in London, filling the blank Paris or Washington, D.C.

All he really has to do is to push forward with his new generation of warfare.

Ivana, let's, let's move on to the war that's happening in Iran now.

And we've seen Russia benefit, I guess, from the spike in oil prices following this outbreak of conflict.

Tell us, though, what are the possible risks to the Kremlin from this conflict?

Like, for example, if the regime in Tehran falls.

to answer this question, we have to understand that for Russia, this is a strategic partnership.

But also Putin deeply cares about his own war in Ukraine, and

that's why he did not offer any concrete support.

For example, there are numerous reports about Russia providing intelligence to Iran, which absolutely doesn't surprise me.

But make no mistake, Putin is not willing to provide any meaningful support to Iran.

Now, what are, you know, also the costs for Putin?

Number one thing is I think it's really too early to talk about how Russia will or might benefit from oil prices.

And you're right, because on one side, Russia's center of gravity is energy.

And a lot of people in the west have been hoping that precisely because of sanctions, that Russia will suffer economically and that will not fuel a Russian military machine.

I think it's too early to talk about those benefits.

You're right about Russian fears related to regime change because Putin doesn't know who might go next.

And the third thing is reputation also matters because with friends like Putin, who needs enemies?

Because how Putin behaved towards Syria, what Putin did with Maduro in Venezuela, this is not the first time that Putin is throwing Iran under the bus.

What did Putin do when there was a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

It also shows that Putin has its own weaknesses, and that's extremely important to emphasize.

Again, we should also not be overly optimistic about this because Russia still has the leverage when it comes to Iran, and

we are going to see how China is going to respond.

Because that axis of aggressors, Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have been working together.

And my other concern is that Russia tried to position itself as a pillar of stability, offering to mediate.

And that's really quite ironic to ask Putin to mediate this conflict.

Because it's like asking an arsonist to help with fire.

And that's something that the west should not fall for when it comes to negotiations with Ukraine, because that's something that we should be tracking.