Name: The stock market playbook for 2026
Uploaded: 2026-01-04T07:28:30.000Z
Duration: 8 min 4 s
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And Jenny, it's a pleasure to be here with you today.

To-infinitive

So when we're starting off with 2026, do you think we're going to see the winners continue to win, the losers continue to lose?

Past simple

You have the Nasdaq that gained 20% in 2025, but the Dow just up 13%.

I think we're going to see some real shifts, some real broadening and some real changes in the new year.

One of the things that I'm worried about, I mean that not only at the stock level, Courtney, but

I'm spooked from a behavioral perspective.

There was an article in Bloomberg, I don't know if you saw it a day or two ago, and

Every Wall street analyst now predicts a stock rally in 2026.

Never in my 30 plus years in this business have I ever seen pure consensus play out as expected.

So that spooks me a lot that everybody's so on the same path, you know, and

you see, oh, what's my best idea for next year?

Everyone's best ideas are what Microsoft, Amazon, whatever worked.

And I look at this and I keep hearing people say, well, the economic data is terrific, but

the economic data we have is backward looking.

And I think people are failing to look forward strongly enough into this new year.

There was, there was a guy named Sal Khan on, on Wednesday morning.

And he was talking about this job apocalypse and he was talking about how there's like 5 to 6 million drivers in the US and we all know Waymo and driverless is coming.

He was talking about like call centers in, where was it Indonesia or the Philippines where they're going to lay off 80% of the people.

And then even this morning there was another person on who, I don't know who as I was driving, but

they were saying that is going to enable companies with a thousand employees to take over things like Accenture, 100 employees to take over SAS.

I'm really worried about what the labor market looks like going into this year.

And you keep hearing people say, well, well, labor still strong, wage growth is still high, but, but

And so this super rosy outlook coupled with me seeing that the labor market could be tough and knowing that over 60% of GDP is driven by consumption.

At this rate, I get a little bit sketched out.

So where I end up for this year is I think you should take risk off the table.

It doesn't mean I think a major bear market's coming.

But if you've had a great year, take some risk off the table, whatever form that's going to come to you.

And maybe you want to take a little bit out and switch strategies and go from super high growth and what's worked into something that's just a better valuation.

Maybe you want to put more into international, maybe you do want to add to fixed income.

But I think that the playbook for this year is going to is going to be different than what it was for the year ahead.

And everyone seems to just be riding the same old train.

I mean, Kevin, as Jenny's talking about the job market can accord annuity is talking about the closing weeks of 2025 giving a gift to 2026, saying we have a solid economy with just enough labor market weakness to ensure ongoing rate cuts.

So they're sort of heartened by maybe some of the labor market weakness.

What do you make about the setup for 2026 when you're looking at the broader economy and maybe the picture for jobs that Jenny brought up, but

also what the world is going to look like as a technology continues to move forward?

Yeah, I listen to Jenny's comments and I think they have a lot of value.

So when you look at consensus, that's the scary part because I kind of lean into that at the moment.

But I think the setup is still what we've seen for 2025, maybe just not with the same level of enthusiasm that we had.

The trade is still real, it's still growing.

We will probably see an interest rate cut in 2026, maybe two, but

And lastly, the economic growth, and I know it's backward looking, has been decent.

So the setup for the first part of the year at least I think is a continuation of what we've seen in 2025.

But what I do like about Jenny's comments and where we're on the same page is that things are not going to be Quite as easy.

You can't just say AI and an earnings call and expect your stock to move marginally substantially, incredibly higher.

So I think stock selection will be super important selectivity and I think that really lends itself to professional and active management.

And I say that as someone who's anticipating volatility and maybe a slow grind higher.

I think I've heard from a lot of the stock analysts, even if Jenny is saying maybe they're overly bullish for her liking, when everybody thinks we're going to move higher from here and we know we have these elevated valuations.

But I'm also hearing a lot of them to Kevin's say.

But stock picking is going to be important.

Where do you sit as you're opening up the playbook for your strategy for 2026?

Well, first of all, Courtney, I don't know if today's Jenny's birthday or what, but

I'm about to say something nice about her too, because one of the last times I was on with her, she said something that got my attention and I didn't really know.

I didn't really have any details on how true it was at the moment, but

it's a thread I've been pulling ever since.

Jenny was saying something about the fact that it seems as if the individual investor, the retail investor, is running out of capacity to spend and they're having to sell out of things like Palantir and Nvidia and anything else that's been going up really well up and to the right for retail investors for the year just to be able to raise cash to make ends meet.

And at the time I wasn't really too sure how true that was.

But what I've been paying attention to is bitcoin.

And because I think that bitcoin is the barometer on where the Retail Investors Fear and Greed Index really is.

The VIX is for the institutional investor.

But I think bitcoin is a better read on where the individual investor falls and what we've been looking at since about October, around the time I think the data came through that Jenny was looking at and saying that there's a lot of bitcoin selling that's been done by long term holders.

So Bloomberg had a piece out a couple of weeks ago That I thought was very interesting where something like $3 billion worth of Bitcoin holdings that are long term holdings, these are the individual tokens, not the ETFs have made their way into circulation for the first time and it was at the fastest pace this has happened in the last five years.

And so I know from the crypto community your bitcoin holdings are usually the last thing that you want to have to sell, especially now in a year where the IRS is actually doing a better job of tracking the cap gains on those things.

So I think it's very telling that those types of securities are making their way into circulation.

And maybe to the point that I think Jenny and Kevin have been making, 2026 probably is not going to be the party up into the right the way that it was the last three years.

Probably a good time to be looking at de Risking.

I was, when we were on together, I said it was MicroStrategy that I was looking at and I'd been watching MicroStrategy since July.

Because I'd seen all that money come out.

So it was exactly where you're at now, which is Bitcoin.

And to me, I was saying that day that was the canary in the coal mine that was catching my attention.

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The stock market playbook for 2026

individual

tough

term

consume