Name: Elon Musk最新預言：AI 即將全面超越人類？｜火星計劃：人類為何需要多行星化｜英聽訓練
Uploaded: 2026-01-04T06:11:07.000Z
Duration: 15 min 33 s
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Yeah, could you give us an update on that?

And then also as part of that, where are we in the scaling laws?

If you scale a bigger cluster, do you get a more powerful AI model?

If you throw twice as much compute at it, do you get a 10% better model?

How much more juice is there left in scaling hardware, do you think?

I think there's a natural logarithmic function associated with the amount of compute.

So then, like, say for argument's sake, like, 10x more compute will double the intelligence.

That might be a rough rule of thumb, but, you know, that still means that, you know, you go from 100 IQ to 200 IQ still pretty, pretty big deal.

I think, I think we'll see intelligence continue to scale all the way up to where, you know, most of the power of the sun is harnessed for compute and then ultimately most of the power of the galaxy, you know, sort of Kardashev 2K3 scale compute.

So I guess once you think about artificial intelligence, not as sort of this, you know, a destination that you reach, but

really as part of the overall escalation of intelligence that we are aware of, you know, human intelligence has also scaled as you've.

As the population has increased and we've been able to store more and more information, human intelligence at scale now, human.

Because of population declines and low growth rate, human intelligence is somewhat plateauing and will actually decline.

And my guess is that I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year.

And then probably within five, like, say 20, 30, probably AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.

Do you think humans are on the decline because the AI is evolving?

Do you think there's this evolution of the ecosystem on Earth that's underway, that we don't really understand the structure of what's going on?

Maybe, yeah, maybe we implicitly know that it's coming.

Yeah, I mean, I hope the birth rates turn around.

I'm a big proponent of increased birth rate, obviously.

Well, you're doing anything about it or no?

You know, we had a big conversation at this conference we didn't expect, which is suicidal empathy.

I noticed you've been pretty active about it.

And open borders is like, let the invaders in.

Could all three of those be the same thing.

It seems like there's a number of symptoms of the west being suicidal, the most obvious one being the birth rate is not a replacement level.

So obviously, if that continues indefinitely, then the west will literally not reproduce enough to replace itself.

There's the fact that the borders were totally opened to the point where Western culture, the social fabric, started to come apart.

And you see this especially in Europe, where they're, you know, the indigenous cultures of the UK or France or Germany are starting to potentially be taken over by cultures of people who are brought in and aren't assimilating.

You have crime where, you know, we have this case on social media right now, this young woman, Irina, who's just killed in a senseless way on a subway, which is horrific enough in and of itself, but

then in addition to that, the elite media just, for whatever reason, just refused to cover it, like it didn't exist.

So you have this issue of crime that's not being addressed or even acknowledged, and

Like, it's almost like we're trying to deny the reality of the spiral and this.

You have all these data points that seem to suggest that the west is suicidal or doesn't, you know, doesn't seem to want to defend itself or propagate itself.

Look, I think everyone in this room thinks that life is awesome.

It's pretty great and, I think, worth living.

And when Alex Karp was here earlier today defending the west, that got some of the loudest applause at the conference.

So I guess we probably don't really understand what's going on.

Because, you know, what's your take on the suicide of the West?

Let's just say that the actions of the west are indistinguishable from suicide.

Look, at least in America, there's generally a sense of optimism.

But when's the last time you talked to someone from Europe who lives in Europe who's optimistic?

So I think unless people have a sense of optimism and purpose about the future, they.

Like having a child is an act of optimism about the future.

So I think we need to maybe give people A sense of optimism and excitement about the future and a belief that the future will be better than the past and they'll be more interested in having kids.

Did religion play a role in the past, Elon, to kind of placate and make folks feel that way when they.

And if you take away religion, then I think you actually, you get something in its place which is actually worse than what was there before.

You get like the white work mind virus filling the hole that religion used to have.

Taking the place of religion, you get these dystopian de facto religions that are very self destructive.

So I think perhaps some sort of revival of religion or at least what we need is some coherent philosophy that people can get excited about.

I mean, for me it's a philosophy of curiosity.

I'm curious about the nature of the universe and I want to go out there and I want humanity to be out there exploring the stars, maybe meeting alien civilizations.

Maybe in some cases we see the ruins of a long dead alien civilization.

But they were, they were very strong for 10 million years.

You know, the kind of stuff that you see in Star Trek, in the, in a non dystopian sci fi book or movie or show.

And so I'm just, I have a philosophy of curiosity of like I just want to know what's going on.

And in order to know what's going on, we must have and increase in the scope and scale of consciousness.

We must grow humanity and we must extend humanity in order to comprehend, to understand the universe or even what questions we should ask about the answer that is the universe.

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Elon Musk最新預言：AI 即將全面超越人類？｜火星計劃：人類為何需要多行星化｜英聽訓練

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