Name: I Analyzed The Big Beautiful Bill,, Its Far Worse Than You Expect
Uploaded: 2025-07-22T18:45:50.000Z
Duration: 12 min 18 s
Description: Thousands of YouTube videos with English-Chinese subtitles! Now you can learn to understand native speakers, expand your vocabulary, and improve your pronunciation...

Past simple

I have analyzed Trump's big beautiful bill and found something very strange.

Future simple

Trump's big beautiful bill is going to impact everybody.

On the one side, there are a lot of great things about this bill, because it reduces taxes pretty much for everybody.

It provides a lot of deductions, there is no taxes on tips and overtime, and a lot of people will be able to lower down their taxable income, which means that they will pay a lot of less taxes.

On the other side, according to this report, it's supposed to fix the United States debt problem.

Now, we talk a lot about the debt problem on this channel.

However, how are you supposed to solve the debt problem when you are cutting your sources of revenue on one side, on the other side, you increase your spending.

And it says that based on this bill, the deficit to GDP ratio is supposed to go down from 6.2% to as low as 3.2%. 6.5% deficit rate is unsustainable for any country, even if you have the global reserve currency, so it must be brought down to 3%. 3% is sustainable for decades to come.

But how is it possible when you are cutting your sources of revenue?

If you read the entire full report, then according to the white house, if you sum it up, the GDP in the short run is going to grow by 4.2% up to 5.2% within the next 4 years.

So the entire trump presidency should deliver the united states a GDP growth of almost 5% every year, and that's how it's supposed to pay for it.

And then it's going to slow down after that within the next 6 years to around 3% if you round it out.

The US economy is too developed to grow by these kind of numbers.

But based on their analysis, lowering down taxes is going to have a huge impact on the US economy.

But it doesn't matter how much you lower down taxes, at the end of the day, the US is simply too rich to achieve those kind of levels.

When you think about China, China can grow by 5% annually.

Because even though that China is the world's largest economy, if you take GDP per capita, then China is a still developing country, which is far away from the US.

If you have a country where you have a desert and you don't even have roads, just by building roads in your country and bridges, you are going to inflate your GDP by 20% or 30% annually.

However, when you have built up your economy and you have wealthy citizens, moving from now onwards, growing the economy becomes significantly much more difficult because by building roads and railways and bridges, the GDP is not going to grow that much.

Which means that you can only grow if you invest in research and development and you build some of the best technologies in the world.

And that's why if you compare the US economy and the Chinese economy, you instantly see that China grows much faster.

That's not because China is growing faster than the US, but because China is in a completely different economic stage.

Just look at the Chinese economy, 15 years ago, their GDP used to grow by 15%.

Because 15 years ago, China was a very poor country.

Today, they build their basic infrastructures, they build their roads and bridges and most of the things and they started developing technologically.

And the only way they can do that is by massively borrowing money and investing in these industries.

So the question is that, at what GDP stage the United States is?

There was a period in the US history where the GDP has grown by 4%, even 5%.

And these were completely different periods in the history of the United States.

Back in the days, Europe just was recovering from world war 2, the entire that part of the world was communism and they were against capitalism, China was trying to feed its population and get it out of poverty.

So United States was pretty much the only country that was at the center of the world.

Today we have a completely different dynamics.

We have a huge challenge from China, the rest of the world is growing tremendously.

So achieving a 5% GDP rate for the United States is extremely difficult.

In fact, the US is at the top of the game.

If you look at countries, at GDP per capita, United States is the only large country in the top 10.

The list is filled with countries such as Luxembourg that doesn't have much of a population.

The entire population of Luxembourg is probably less than half a million people.

And when you have a lot of resources and very few people, it's very easy to have that kind of a huge GDP per capita.

Then you have Ireland, it's a tax haven for a lot of multi-trillion dollar corporations such as Apple.

Then you have Switzerland, Singapore, Norway, and so on and so forth.

And countries such as Qatar which is the wealthiest country when it comes to gas resources, I mean natural gas.

And then you have a tiny population of 1 million people which is why they are at the top of  The only other country that is huge, not as huge as the United States, but still huge is Germany and the UK.

Which means that the United States is so developed that growing for it by 3% annually is pretty much unrealistic.

The only pity that happened was back in the 1990s, but it was the internet revolution.

Internet changed the lives of the entire world.

You can literally divide the world pre-internet era and after internet era.

Yes, internet existed before 1990s, but it was literally the 1990s that made internet possible and accessible for the average people.

This was the period where companies started massively investing in internet and companies such as Amazon came out.

And that growth led the US GDP to grow by about 4% at its peak.

But this massive growth also led to the dot-com bubble and the entire economy turned into a bubble and collapsed after that.

Since then, the US didn't see the age of GDP growth of over 4%.

Yes, the GDP after that grew by almost 4%, but it was during the peak of the investing in real estate, when wall street came out with mortgage-backed securities.

After that, the US GDP has been growing by 1.5% up to 2.5%.

And these are normal GDP growth for the United States.

The only real difference that you see is the covid recovery era.

Every time an economy goes into a crisis and then it recovers, you will see a huge GDP growth.

But that's not the real GDP growth, it's simply a recovery from the previous years.

So by understanding at which stage the United States is right now, it's impossible to imagine the US economy to grow by a GDP that is much more than 3 or 4% annually, leave alone 5%.

If the US GDP grows by 5% within the next 4 years, that means that by the time Trump is out of office, the total US GDP will cross 35 trillion dollars, which is going to be the largest economic growth in recent American history.

But if that's not going to happen, then another 5 trillion dollars will be added to the deficit.

The national debt is already growing tremendously and now stands at around 100% if you do not count in the intergovernmental debt.

Without that and the extra 5 trillion dollars in deficit, it can easily grow to 120%.

And if you add to that the intergovernmental debt, suddenly you find the United States at a 140% debt to GDP ratio.

I personally have zero faith that a 5% growth rate will be achieved, especially with so much chaos that is happening and so much tariffs being imposed on other countries.

One of the fundamental reasons that the economy grows is that it trades with the rest of the world.

Now you have put all of these barriers and at the same time you expect a 5% GDP growth is something unrealistic.

There is although one way to do that, is when you lower down interest rates to 1% or 2%, borrowing money suddenly becomes so cheap and the GDP will be inflated to by 5% growth annually.

You have to understand the difference between real GDP growth and a GDP growth.

Because if you lower down interest rates and the cost of borrowing lowers down and people borrow money and start spending, yes, the GDP in numbers have grown dramatically, but now those dollars can buy a lot less things.

The second biggest problem with the big beautiful bill is the energy part.

There is a lot of changes that is going to be of how energy will be consumed in the United States.

In the 20th century, the most important engine of energy was oil.

And by controlling oil in the 20th century, it allowed the United States to dominate the world.

That's where the concept of petrodollar came in.

United States signed very important trade agreements with those countries that produce oil mostly so that they only sell their oil in US dollars.

That is one of the primary reasons that allowed the United States to have the global reserve currency.

And if you are buying oil, you need dollars.

And in order to get dollars, you have to trade with the United States.

That strengthened the US position as the global reserve currency.

But oil is not going to be the engine of the 21st century.

But if you want to focus on AI, you need an infinite source of energy.

And that is either wind, solar, or other sources of clean energy.

And the United States perfectly understands that.

China produces 70-80% of all the batteries in the world.