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China's economy is still in recovery mode and is also in transition.
So, everything is just going to take time.
Let's not forget that, first of all, China was the last to exit really the pandemic lockdowns.
And Chinese households never got the kind of stimulus packages, government support that most other countries, especially in the U.S., U.K. had.
And U.S., what, $5 trillion of support package, that wasn't there.
The second is the transition to, let's say, less quantity, higher quality, going for tech innovation.
Think about the government stimulus package.
Why are they kind of holding off?
One is financial stability.
Let's not repeat what happened after 2009.
The second is China is in kind of going, transitioning to a new mode of higher value added.
Let's invest in tech.
Let's harness the resources due to high-tech investment, renewables and all that.
But guess what?
That's not going to replace real estate in terms of that.
So, China has to kind of feel the short-term pain for maybe the longer-term gains of productivity.
But I personally feel that currently there's a cyclical problem here in China, which is an enormous aggregate demand deficit.
And you kind of need to just give the right medicine to the right problem.
It's not just structural problems.
I think that's not really the urgent issue.
This lack of demand, you need to give a big stimulus package.
So, a lot of this is psychological, on the part of the consumer.
We've been hearing about Chinese prices continuing to drop in this whole deflation situation where if it gets into people's minds, they'll be thinking like, heck, why should I buy something today?
It might be cheaper tomorrow or next week or next month, right?
I mean, what can the government do to change that?
Because it's about confidence when they're worried about the roof over their heads or whether their son or daughter is able to find a falling prices was largely in durable goods, cars, let's say.
But I think we really exited out of that particular cycle.
There was also a misconception, which is deflation is primarily driven by food and in particular pork.
And there was some cyclical features.
I don't think China is really in a deflationary trap like Japan was, for instance.
And now you're seeing kind of the prices slowly starting to rise again.
And you're right.
I mean, in the sense that consumers, because of the feel that, well, is economies really back?
Is there, you know, their wages going to be stable?
I think, you know, we've seen nominal wage growth, but what about real wage growth and what about actual wages?
They need to feel more certainty in able to, in order to be wanted to spend on the big ticket items.
