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  • What I hope to do in this video is explore the relationship

  • between oil and gas prices.

  • And you do see that there is a very strong correlation

  • between how they trend.

  • This right over here is oil prices,

  • quoted at a specific point on the planet.

  • It is dependent on where you are.

  • As you can see, this is in US dollars per barrel.

  • In early 2008 around $100 went up to $140 then came back down.

  • And then it's been trending up ever since.

  • Now it's about $100 per barrel.

  • This is where we see the oil prices are per barrel basis.

  • And then related to that you see the price of gasoline.

  • And this is even more geographically specific.

  • Because not only do have transportation costs,

  • but you also have very region-specific taxation

  • for oil and sometimes regulation.

  • But taxation is the big part of it.

  • But you do see it trends up when oil prices trend up

  • and then it goes down.

  • And this is on a per gallon basis.

  • And these are the prices right over here in New York.

  • But they don't move completely lock step.

  • If anything you see that the oil price on a per barrel basis

  • is much more volatile than the gasoline price right over here.

  • But there is the same general trend.

  • When the oil prices moves up this tends to move up.

  • But it's not always in the same percentage.

  • But there's definitely a relationship.

  • Now, before trying to figure out when you pay, say,

  • $4 at the pump how much of that is

  • oil, and how much is refining, and how much is transportation

  • let's at least kind of build up to that to think about

  • just how does the oil even end up in your car.

  • And then we can build up that price of the oil,

  • or the price of the gasoline, I should say.

  • So this right over here, you are probably familiar with these.

  • These are oil rigs, two very different types.

  • This is an offshore oil rig.

  • This is a land based oil rig.

  • But they're both doing the same fundamental thing.

  • They're drilling into the ground until they

  • get to a pocket of oil.

  • And then they will pump that oil out

  • and try to transport it to the market somehow,

  • first going through a refinery.

  • Offshore is really fascinating.

  • It really is an engineering marvel how they do it.

  • It might be sitting out here in the ocean.

  • And it will literally go to the bottom of the ocean,

  • go to the sea floor, and then drill

  • from there to actually get to the oil pockets.

  • So it's really an engineering marvel.

  • And you have to be very careful.

  • It can be very dangerous working on an oil rig.

  • And obviously, if there's an accident on them

  • it could be an environmental nightmare,

  • like what we saw what the BP situation.

  • But it is undoubtedly an engineering marvel.

  • Now once you have that oil you need to get it to a refinery

  • so that oil can be broken up into it useful parts.

  • And the way that is typically transported to a refinery

  • is some combination of a pipeline or an oil tanker.

  • This right over here is actually the Alaskan pipeline.

  • And it takes oil from the very northern part of Alaska

  • to the southern part.

  • So that it can then be put on oil tankers, which can then

  • transported anywhere in the world to refineries.

  • It could go straight to a tanker.

  • Actually even some offshore places you could use a tanker.

  • Or sometimes even if they're close enough

  • to land they actually might have a pipeline that

  • will take it to land where it can go to a refinery

  • or go to an oil tanker so it can be transported even farther.

  • And then from there, it gets to a refinery.

  • And so we could start to think about how the price of oil

  • is built up before we even think about what a refinery even

  • does.

  • So let's say that the current price of oil-- and I

  • kind of rigged the numbers, not to be

  • too punny-- to work out fairly well.

  • But let's say that the current price of oil is $90 per barrel.

  • So, and this is just a units thing,

  • a barrel is equal to 42 gallons.

  • So if I say I have a barrel of water

  • I'm really saying that I have 42 gallons of water.

  • And now all 42 gallons of crude oil

  • do not turn into 42 gallons of gasoline.

  • Out of 42 gallons of crude oil you

  • can get about 19 or 20 gallons of gasoline.

  • For the sake of to make the numbers easy

  • I'll just go with 20, 20 gallons of gasoline.

  • And then the rest will be other stuff.

  • So 22 gallons of other stuff.

  • It might not even be 22 gallons.

  • In fact it won't be.

  • Some of it is just waste.

  • Some of it is byproduct.

  • Some of this is actually used to fuel the refining process.

  • So let me not write that number.

  • So the rest is other stuff.

  • So this refinery is paying $90 per barrel when it gets it.

  • So that incorporates what the oil producers are getting.

  • It also takes care of the transportation costs

  • to the refinery.

  • And let's say just for the sake of argument

  • that the refinery can sell-- let's

  • say it's doesn't even take care of the transportation network.

  • Let's say there's people who are willing to buy directly

  • from the refinery at the refinery.

  • They're willing to buy gasoline at $3.25 per gallon.

  • So the gas at refinery people are willing to spend,

  • or the transporter is willing to pay them, $3.25 per gallon.

  • And so from this barrel they're going

  • to get 20 gallons of gasoline.

  • They can sell that at $3.25 per gallon.

  • So you're going to have 20 times $3.25, which

  • is let's see 20 times 3 is 60.

  • And then 20 times $0.25 is $5.

  • So they're going to get $65 for the gasoline.

  • And then let's just say for the sake of argument

  • they get $35 for the other stuff.

  • And some of this other stuff is quite useful.

  • It's stuff like motor oil.

  • It could be jet fuel.

  • It could be natural gas.

  • And it could be obviously fuel to actually fuel the refinery.

  • And so let's actually start building this

  • up right over here.

  • So one way to think about it-- so let me draw it this way.

  • We're up to $3.25 per gallon, is what the price is exiting

  • the refinery, what the refineries getting for it.

  • So let me draw it down here.

  • So let's say that this is $1.

  • This is $2.

  • And this is $3.

  • And then they're getting $3.25 would be like that.

  • That is what the refinery is getting.

  • And one way to think about it, it's

  • not completely because all of their profit

  • isn't coming from the gasoline.

  • But one way to think about it is the refinery,

  • after refining this barrel of crude oil

  • that they paid $90 for, they're going

  • to get $65 for the gasoline.

  • And then they're going to get $35 for the other stuff.

  • So they made a combination of, what is it, they made $100.

  • They're able to buy this crude oil at $90,

  • do what they had to do.

  • And then they're able to sell it for $100.

  • So one way to think about it is that, at least

  • in this situation, 90% of what they're getting for it

  • was their cost.

  • But it breaks down between the other stuff in the gasoline.

  • So it's not super easy to break down.

  • But you can say, in this example, a good chunk of this

  • was the cost of gasoline.

  • And it obviously depends how you account for it.

  • But a good chunk of it, not the cost of gasoline,

  • a good chunk of it is the cost the crude.

  • And this right over here, you could say

  • is how much the refinery actually makes.

  • And the amount that the refinery gets

  • versus what it costs-- so the amount they

  • get for all of the product they produce versus the crude oil

  • that they have to pay for, this margin, this

  • is often called the crack spread.

  • And just to understand what a refinery is doing,

  • it's breaking up that crude oil into its various parts.

  • And it's actually a fairly simple-- well,

  • I don't want to say simple process.

  • Obviously when you look at a refinery