Name: How Working Hours May Be a Recession Indicator | WSJ
Uploaded: 2023-07-20T18:36:04.000Z
Duration: 4 min 29 s
Description: Thousands of YouTube videos with English-Chinese subtitles! Now you can learn to understand native speakers, expand your vocabulary, and improve your pronunciation...

- [Narrator] When people clock into work,

the change in the number of hours people work

- The average number of hours worked each week

has declined from pretty high levels to 2019 levels

this dip means the U.S. is headed for a recession.

Here's why hours worked is a recession indicator,

and why this slowdown could be different.

Hours worked is basically what it sounds like,

Since businesses are more likely to adjust hours

these changes can signal increases or decreases

- But if the consumers are spending less,

companies are gonna start to feel that pressure.

They're going to first start to cut hours,

because they don't really wanna cut workers.

- [Narrator] Economists have been looking at it for decades.

some think this usually reliable recession indicator

because unusual post-pandemic factors are at work.

manufacturing, transportation, construction,

retail and hospitality working hours are going down.

The overall average declined to about 34 hours in May.

That's down from a peak of 35 hours in January, 2021,

and is below the 2019 average before the pandemic.

that the economy is struggling at this current moment.

which is always the million dollar question,

is why can't you predict a recession or anything like that?

and some employers may be responding by cutting hours,

- They had a huge overtime bill in 2021 and 2022.

were flooded with so much demand they couldn't keep up,

and now they've cut all those overtime hours

and preparing for business to pick up again.

- [Narrator] The company said it isn't planning layoffs

and it'd do everything it could to keep workers.

And other employers are cutting regular hours too.

who want to work full-time jumped 452,000,

- First thing they're gonna do is kinda cut back hiring,

also be cutting back available opportunities

And then the next piece would be cutting back hours

within the employees that work there already.

And then the final piece is letting them go.

something they don't usually do when layoffs are ahead.

U.S. employers added an average of 278,000 jobs each month.

- This has been the toughest hiring environment

and we do not wanna be laying people off.

Nah, we're just gonna hang onto them and ride through this.

- [Narrator] By riding out tough times with more employees,

economists think workers can stop overworking

And one study from Washington University in St. louis

- Maybe expectations about jobs have changed,

that we're still trying to work out in the labor market.

- [Narrator] Taking the post pandemic factors into account,

the hours worked indicator may defy history this time.

Subtitles ListPlay Video

How Working Hours May Be a Recession Indicator | WSJ

stuff

struggle

tough

pandemic