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  • the election is coming.

  • The election is coming, I need a bell.

  • Where's my bell.

  • History suggests that the single biggest predictor of how a midterm election is going to go is the popularity or the unpopularity of the sitting president in the United States.

  • And if that history repeats itself on november 8th, that's a very bad thing for democrats.

  • Here's why President joe biden's job approval rating among americans has dipped to 40% in the latest gallup survey, A number that should instill fear In the hearts of Democratic candidates and strategists trying to stave off defeat.

  • And that polling is in line with CNN's poll of polls, which puts Biden's average approval rating at just 41%.

  • So Biden's approval rating has fallen steadily over the last couple of months.

  • In the Gallup data, he was at 44% approval in August and 42% approval in September the trend line.

  • In other words, does not look good for him.

  • Democrats made a big bet on an issue they thought might help them overcome biden's numbers, but I'll get to why that doesn't look like it's working in just a minute.

  • Professional teas now focus on this, Biden is in a worse position in gallup polling compared to his recent predecessors at a similar point in the final stretch before their first midterm election in office from Bill Clinton in 1994 was at 41% and who jumped up to 48% later in the month of october to donald trump at 43% in 2018.

  • And in each of those cases, poor numbers preceded steep losses for the President's party in the midterms.

  • In 2018 trump's republicans lost a net of 40 House seats and the House majority in 2010, democrats lost a net 63 House seats and the House majority.

  • And way back in 1994 democrats lost a net of 54 House seats and the House majority notice a trend here.

  • All three of those presidents had better numbers going into the election than biden has right now.

  • And it's not just recent history that suggests that low approval ratings for president spell doom, that's the um For his side in a midterm election in the history of Gallup's polling, which goes back decades.

  • The average average seat loss for a president's party when that president's job approval is under 50% was 37 house seats.

  • As of 2018, Biden's lingering unpopularity is a major factor in the decision by prominent political handicappers too.

  • Up their estimates of Republican House gains.

  • Recently, the Cook Political report with Amy walter moved its prediction from a net Republican gain of 10 to 20 house seats to a net gain of 12 to 25 House seats.

  • And also recently inside elections.

  • Another campaign tip sheet made a similar shift, moving their ceiling on Republican gains in the House from 20 to 25.

  • The return folk of the electorate to biden and their general disapproval of him has overshadowed democrats attempts to make the 2022 election a referendum specifically on the Supreme Court's overturning of roe v wade over the summer.

  • Democrats have placed a massive and I mean, massive bet on the issue since october 1st alone, democrats have spent more than 100 and $50 million on ads on abortion.

  • That's almost half of the 331 million the party has spent on ads overall and dwarfs what is being spent on any other issue.

  • So if you want to keep your right to choose, you can't vote for us.

  • The problem for democrats is that the road decision is being overshadowed by Biden's unpopularity and independent voters seem to be in the mood to send him and his administration, not to mention democratic majorities in the House and Senate a stern message At this point, it seems overwhelmingly likely that republicans will pick up the net of five seats.

  • They need to take control of the House.

  • Just for one example, the latest model from Fivethirtyeight gives republicans a better than 80 that's 80% chance of reclaiming the majority they lost four years ago.

  • The real question Now, I think appears to be how deep Democratic losses are going to be.

  • And judging by biden's current approval ratings and the weight of history, it could be even worse than people are predicting today.

the election is coming.

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