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  • On October 20th 2022, after just 44 days in office, British Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned.

  • I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party.

  • Her brief premiership, the shortest in U.K. history, will be remembered for being mired

  • by fiscal calamity, political infighting and market meltdown.

  • But also, her dogged efforts to revive a controversial economic idea.

  • That theory?

  • Trickle-down economics, a term most closely associated with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

  • Truss' experiment was maybe a sort of last gasp of trickle-down, the disastrous results

  • may have been the death knell of that philosophy.

  • Stock markets were roiled, and the British pound plunged against the dollar, after the

  • new U.K. government unveiled a “mini-budgetof tax cuts seen to disproportionately benefit

  • the wealthy, even as the country faces a worsening cost-of-living crisis.

  • The move prompted critique from financial institutions and political ire from across the Atlantic.

  • Even the Bank of England was forced to intervene.

  • I think trickle-down is a bit of a boogey term for people who dislike free market ideas.

  • So just what is 'trickle-down' economics and why did it cause the U.K.'s economic strategy to implode?

  • 'Trickle-down' economics is the theory that deregulation and tax cuts at

  • the top levels of society, namely for businesses and the wealthy, will eventually trickle down

  • to benefit the population at large.

  • Coined as a phrase by political opponents critical of top-level tax cuts, the term trickle-down

  • falls within, but differs from, widersupply-side" theory, which focuses on increasing the supply of labor

  • and advocates lowering taxes for all.

  • People who believe in the kind of trickle-down about cutting taxes for the wealthy, for the entrepreneurs,

  • their supply-side story is that there will be such a strong response

  • of new people founding firms, more Bill Gates, more Elon Musks, because there's more of

  • an incentive to come up with the ideas if you can get big rewards for them.

  • The idea is closely linked to the Laffer curve, an economic model popularized in the 1970s

  • by U.S. economist Arthur Laffer, which showed the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue.

  • According to the model, when taxes pass a certain level, they become counterproductive

  • for increasing tax revenue.

  • Crucially, that tipping point tended to come when taxes were prohibitively high, over 50%.

  • He argued that if you cut taxes, for example for the very wealthy, they pay for themselves.

  • The idea is that if you cut taxes for the wealthy, they work so hard, they generate

  • so much more growth and tax revenue, you actually end up with more tax.

  • Trickle-down economics truly rose to fame in the 1980s under U.S. President Ronald Reagan

  • and U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who were both strong proponents of tax cuts as a way

  • of spurring overall prosperity.

  • Now some critics complain your tax cut is too big, that it costs government too much.

  • Well, this may be a shock to them, but that money isn't the government's to begin with.

  • More recently, Donald Trump campaigned onthe largest tax cuts in the history

  • of the United States of America."

  • Meanwhile, in France, President Emmanuel Macron abolished the country's wealth tax in 2018

  • and joined the likes of Ireland in reducing corporation tax and deregulating industry

  • in the name of growth.

  • But trickle-down economics has come up against harsh criticism over the years, with some

  • political scientists dubbing it a “zombietheory; an idea which has endured in public discourse

  • despite long being disproven.

  • In a 2015 paper, the International Monetary Fund noted that “a rising income share of the top 20 percent

  • results in lower growththat is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down.”

  • If you look, say, over the last 30, 40 years, a lot of countries that have reduced the tax

  • rate on the most wealthy, the U.S., in particular, that hasn't led to some boom of growth.

  • The top 1% have got a lot, lot bigger shares of the pie.

  • In the U.S. between 1979 and 2007, the net income of the top 1% of earners nearly tripled

  • while those in the bottom 20% rose by just 16%.

  • The findings have been mirrored over the years in multiple reports.

  • A 2020 study of five decades of tax cuts, spanning 18 wealthy countries, found that the effect

  • ofmajor tax cuts for the rich on real GDP per capita is close to zero and statistically insignificant.”

  • Still, in 2022, Liz Truss campaigned and came to power on promises of tax cuts, particularly

  • for the top end of the economic spectrum.

  • The U.K. government, for its part, has resisted the termtrickle-down ecconomics,”

  • instead referring to its 'Economic Growth Plan' as a series of supply-side reforms.

  • Matthew Lesh is head of public policy at London's Institute of Economic Affairs,

  • a free market, right-leaning financial think tank that works closely with the U.K.'s Conservative Party.

  • I reject the characterization of trickle-down economics in that I don't think that's

  • a philosophy that anyone is doing or supports.

  • I think that's a bit of a slur.

  • What I would say is that the kind of policies the government's talking about, in terms

  • of boosting productivity, increasing economic growth, expanding the size of the pie and

  • making it bigger so everyone can get a bigger piece, that kind of a policy agenda is very

  • sensible and reasonable and something that I think can increase prosperity.

  • The challenge is making that politically palatable.

  • That challenge, as it turned out, was entirely underestimated.

  • In a September 2022 “mini-budget,” the U.K.'s then Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng

  • announced £45 billion worth of corporate and income tax cuts, including removing the cap

  • on banker bonuses, financial markets balked, and sterling was sent into freefall.

  • Britain's central bank, the Bank of England, was forced to step in with an emergency bond-buying operation

  • to restore credibility to chaotic markets.

  • Meanwhile, the unfunded tax cuts drew global criticism.

  • In a rare statement, the International Monetary Fund said the plans wouldlikely increase inequality

  • and urged the government toreevaluate the tax measures,

  • especially those that benefit high income earners.”

  • Days later, the Treasury was forced to U-turn on one of its most controversial policies

  • of scrapping the top 45% rate of income tax for those earning over £150,000.

  • It was the wrong thing to do.

  • Within weeks, Kwarteng was given the boot and, with it, most of his economic policies

  • were thrown out by successor Jeremy Hunt.

  • There are going to be difficult decisions in terms of public spending cuts, in terms

  • of increases of taxation.

  • The government's strategy was considered particularly ill-timed as the country faces

  • its worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation, amid soaring inflation and higher energy costs.

  • As of September 2022, U.K. inflation hit a 40-year-high of 10.1%, after dipping slightly in August.

  • The Bank of England, alongside central banks across the globe, has been aggressively raising

  • interest rates in a bid to cool the economy and bring down prices.

  • Now, with inflation going up and interest rates going up, having big, unfunded tax cuts

  • is going to throw fuel on the fire.

  • It's like Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng have got their foot on the fiscal accelerator and

  • the Bank of England's got its foot down on the breaks.

  • That's not a good way to drive a car.

  • Of course, tax cuts are just one approach to economic policy.

  • So what could be a better alternative which improves living standards and prosperity across the board?

  • Professor Eric Beinhocker, founder at the Institute for New Economic Thinking,

  • an Oxford-based public policy research center, thinks he has a solution:

  • something he callsmiddle-outeconomics.

  • What does actually increase long-term growth are investments in the broad middle of the economy.

  • In middle-income households, their education, skills, the infrastructure that they use and

  • doing things that can increase their productivity and wages over time.

  • It's middle-income households that do the bulk of the spending in the economy,

  • and that spending then creates real incentives for businesses to invest in new products and services

  • and innovation and grow.

  • So you get this virtuous circle between demand and innovation and growth.

  • The theory has some high-level stakeholders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, who made

  • the policy a central tenet of his March 2022 State of the Union address.

  • Build the economy from the bottom up and the middle out, not from the top down.

  • President Biden, who came from a working-class background himself and spent much of his career

  • with working families and very committed to labor issues and so on, I think he intuitively

  • kind of got the logic.

  • And so his administration has actually been quite a dramatic shift in direction.

  • But as for the U.K., it might be some time yet before it recovers from its economic experiment.

  • For the average voter, they want to know if their life is going to get better over time.

  • And so being able to show how these things go together in a positive way, that a more

  • fair and inclusive society will also be longer term more productive and growing society,

  • I think, has the benefit of being economically true and a very positive political narrative.

  • The way, ultimately, to deal with this, I think, is being able to get that economic

  • growth in the medium to long-term, which is through those supply-side reforms.

  • If you grow the economy, it means you can all have higher incomes, it means it'll

  • be much easier to pay down the government debt as well as fund public services, and

  • that's what's been lacking in the U.K. for the last decade.

  • So I think the way to square the circle in the medium to long term is through that economic growth.

  • In the short to medium term, I think it's very, very difficult, both politically and economically.

On October 20th 2022, after just 44 days in office, British Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned.

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