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  • Beijing taking steps to increase its military pressure on Taiwan, carrying out now regular amphibious assault exercises and military and spy flights over the nation.

  • There are so many different factors right now that could potentially lead to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

  • I think for older generations, they may remember a Taiwan that produced cheap toys.

  • That, however, has really shifted.

  • Certainly on the semiconductor front, we've, over the years, developed a greater dependency on Taiwan.

  • We don't have much choice in the matter; the world sort of allowed Taiwan to become the top manufacturer of advanced chips.

  • Silicon Valley was createdwe created the semiconductor industry here in Americaand over the past few decades, we've just allowed ourselves to fall behind.

  • If something happens in Taiwan, we are in trouble.

  • (The Bigger Picture - Why tensions are rising between China and Taiwan)

  • The one-China policy is actually different from the one-China principle, which is a concept that mainland China has.

  • So, Beijing says that there is one China that is under the communist government of the PRC.

  • At the end of the Civil War in 1949, the Communists won and formed the People's Republic of China.

  • And then the Nationalists fled the mainland and went to the island of Taiwan, where they formed their own government.

  • Pre-dating 1979, we recognized Taiwan as the sole and legitimate government of China.

  • Then, under the Carter administration, that recognition was switched.

  • The US has tried not to make any definitive statements about Taiwan and its status.

  • We have the so-called "strategic ambiguity" in our commitment to Taiwan, which dates back 40 years

  • because we were just as afraid that Taiwan would use the American security umbrella to be more assertive and declare independence as we were worried about China attacking,

  • so we tried to prevent either of those possibilities by making it unclear whether we would come to Taiwan's defense.

  • Things have changed now primarily for two reasons.

  • The threat from China is simply becominghas simply become too significant to ignore.

  • Its military ishas grown enormously since the 1990s.

  • With Taiwan, with its democracy, we don't have that same concern or, certainly, it's significantly reduced that Taiwan would... would... would unilaterally declare independence.

  • Taiwan's⏤has managed to position itself over the last 30 years as a contract manufacturer or original design manufacturer of choice for many of the world's leading technology companies,

  • most of which come from the States, quite frankly.

  • Companies like Apple, Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and others.

  • The key major company that people talk about with Taiwan is a company called TSMC, which is a chip foundry,

  • and they make chips and parts for so many different American companies as well as other companies around the world.

  • We don't make any of the world's most sophisticated, you know, smallest, leading-edge chips in the United States of America.

  • Somehow we've allowed ourselves to get into a position where we are utterly dependent on Taiwan for those chips.

  • And those are the very chips that you need in artificial intelligence, high-end computing, communications, military equipment.

  • We're still seeing capital being plowed into Taiwan at really significant levels.

  • Yes, there are tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but the global business community see Taiwan right now as an important place to deploy capital, and... and that's taking place.

  • One of Xi Jinping's major goals is what is called "national rejuvenation", which he wants to achieve by 2049.

  • And part of that national rejuvenation is bringing back to the homeland all territories that... that have not been subject to Beijing's controls.

  • Xi has bet his entire life on being able to bring back Taiwan into China's fold, and so I... I...

  • I think that what they did to Hong Kong is a... is a... is a horrible omen for what's about to happen in Taiwan.

  • Officially, Beijing has not changed its position on Taiwan.

  • They constantly say that they want to have unification with Taiwan.

  • However, we have seen President Xi Jinping and his administration, over the past couple of years, increase the military intimidation of Taiwan with, for example, flyovers.

  • A lot of it coincides with China really feeling its oats, in military terms, because it's now about 15 years that China's been, I think, pretty clearly the world's number two military power.

  • Tensions between the United States and China are now rising.

  • At a news conference today in Tokyo, President Biden gave Beijing a stern warning.

  • Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?

  • Yes; we agree with [the] one-China policy.

  • We signed on to it, and all the attendant agreements made from there.

  • That really made a lot of headlines because it seemed as though it was a breach of what has been the traditional relationship between the US and Taiwan.

  • If you're worried that China may decide strategic ambiguity means that the Americans really would sit this one out⏤'cause we didn't come to Ukraine's defense, either

  • you don't really want China to think that way; you want them to believe there's a high probability of a US response, a US military response.

  • When the US made the shift to recognize Beijing as China, it didn't necessarily want to be seen as walking away from its relationship with Taiwan.

  • The US continues to supply arms to Taiwan and continues to see Taiwan as an important economic partner.

  • And because of that, Beijing has been very concerned in the past couple of years that the relationship between Taiwan and the US appears to be getting closer and closer.

  • So, what we did have was, we had the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework the President launched several weeks ago in Japan,

  • and a number of economies have signed up for that; it's an interesting framework.

  • Obviously, we'll have to see what... what the meat looks like on the bones.

  • That's always where, you know, that's where... where the rubber meets the road.

  • [There's] Definitely a fear that we potentially could get into a situation where China decides that it's best for Beijing to take Taiwan by force.

  • And one wild card in all of this is that the power in Beijing is becoming much more centralized.

  • I think we should be ablewe, collectively, China, Taiwan, the United States, Japan, [and] other playerswe should be able to avoid war.

  • Because we've been all talking about it long enough, preparing long enough, that everybody has to go into this thing clear-eyed about what could happen if there were a fight.

Beijing taking steps to increase its military pressure on Taiwan, carrying out now regular amphibious assault exercises and military and spy flights over the nation.

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Why Tensions Between China And Taiwan Are On The Rise

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    たらこ posted on 2022/08/22
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