Placeholder Image

Subtitles section Play video

  • when is the covid pandemic going to end so many people have been comparing the spanish flu to SARS Cov two for example, the spanish flu took place over two years between 1918 to 1920 consisted of four waves.

  • So here we are almost two years later and there have been four waves.

  • So it'll end in 2022.

  • Right, right.

  • Today we're going to break down how this all might end with specific predictions based on expert opinions, past virus trajectories and up to date research and models.

  • Let's go.

  • First off a reminder that this novel coronavirus carries its genetic info as RNA not DNA is considered an intracellular parasite which is a fancy way of saying it can only reproduce within cells.

  • So SARS-COv-2 may think she's that girl.

  • But it's like are you even alive call me when you have your own cells or a metabolism hood.

  • Although maybe we shouldn't be making fun of her because currently she's doing a great job infecting us all.

  • Even though the flu is also an RNA virus, it is different than the current RNA coronavirus that we're all talking about.

  • So to understand what is going to happen to us in the future.

  • It's also worth looking at the corona viruses or colds that infect all of us each year.

  • A new genius study went back to look at blood samples over multiple decades for the seasonal coronavirus 2 to 9 E because this virus is able to infect people repeatedly throughout their lives.

  • But what they realized through the blood samples was that individuals in the eighties had different immune markers than those in the nineties and even more so from those in the two thousands.

  • This makes researchers think coronavirus 2 to 90 might also be mutating throughout these decades.

  • That's maybe what's causing re infection.

  • It's not just fading immune response.

  • So the big question is, when will SARS C.

  • O.

  • V two virus join the other four corona viruses that circulate throughout populations and cause relatively mild colds?

  • How does that happen now?

  • That is the big question.

  • On the one hand, it could become endemic meaning infections stabilized without these unexpected spikes.

  • That would require a low reproduction number.

  • Like our one meaning an infected person is likely to infect only one other person, not like this, a micron variant, which is making graphs of covid cases look like a comedic jokes straight line up.

  • On the other hand, SARS-Cov-2 could become something more threatening, like a bad flu or something even worse.

  • It's a myth to say that viruses only evolved to become more mild, which is a narrative that keeps getting pushed.

  • It's possible, but the reality is far more complex.

  • The RNA inside is a blueprint that needs to get its genetic material into the cytoplasm of your cells.

  • Then the ribosome starts reading the blueprint three nucleic acids at a time and then strings them together and creates the protein, but occasionally the wrong nucleic acid will get added to the chain.

  • This can sometimes lead to changes making an offspring virus different from its parent and these random changes can sometimes be advantageous to the virus.

  • Early genome sequencing of the SARS COv two virus showed that it was picking up around two single letter mutations per month.

  • There are two important ways to think about how mutations affect the virus that we are currently all fleeing from.

  • One is its transmissibility like mutations that make it replicate faster or make it more contagious to others and to is its ability to evade immune response.

  • Like mutations in the spike proteins that make it sneak past our immune system.

  • Gamma and beta had a slew of mutations in the Fame fame spike protein.

  • We're all talking about that made it by more easily to ace two receptors in your body and that made it more easily absorbed into your cells meaning boom, it's more transmissible.

  • It's more likely to gain these effective mutations.

  • The longer it replicates in a host.

  • So the longer you are sick, the more likely these mutations can happen.

  • This is why these mutations are more likely to happen in people who are not vaccinated or in people who are immuno compromised.

  • King delta identified in spring 2021 was 60% more transmissible than any other strain before because of mutations that researchers think caused it to replicate faster in the airways of infected individuals.

  • Outpacing the initial immune response.

  • Especially again in those unvaccinated.

  • So boom, you have increased transmissibility And evading immune response.

  • Delta is more transmissible than the current fluids we deal with or any of those four common colds that we talked about earlier.

  • But it's less transmissible than measles and polio.

  • It's also nice to know that this transmissibility of the virus can't just increase forever.

  • We're dealing with the laws of nature here and there are certain parameters on our biology.

  • The virus needs to toy with the ability to replicate in 19 airways and lungs, but also with making sure we're not so sick.

  • It wants us to be out there and spreading.

  • It doesn't want us to be sick at home in bed, not able to move the virus ponds to infect my family.

  • And when we say want hear a gentle reminder that the virus isn't sentient and doesn't consciously want these things.

  • It's just that the more optimal versions of the virus will spread more effectively out competing other variants that might be too deadly or not transmissible enough omicron came outta left field like she stomped on the scene, this baby has 30 mutations in the spike protein and has evolved to infect people who are immune through vaccination or previous infection to delta, but as gains in transmissibility slow, it needs to figure out ways to continue to overcome immune responses, which is probably what's happening right now, experiments and lab sequencing of variants circulating right now have identified a bunch of mutations in spike proteins that weaken your body's immune response which has been boosted by vaccination or prior infection.

  • But the important thing that we do know is that vaccines continue to protect against severe disease.

  • Your T cell mediated immunity created by the M.

  • R.

  • N.

  • A vaccine is a huge step in speeding up and overcoming this pandemic and that's why getting the world vaccinated is so important.

  • That doesn't mean it will just go away overnight.

  • But being vaccinated continues to make you more resilient to any mutations in SARS Ceo B two over time as it's proven to make you less sick.

  • Perhaps even more important is that it allows you to not contribute to the problem of it becoming even more transmissible or evading immunity.

  • So continued vaccination can build up a wall of immunity that the virus can no longer overcome essentially if the whole world was suddenly vaccinated at once, the overall T cell mediated immunity would be high enough to help us be more resilient to any upcoming changes of the virus and as a result it wouldn't be able to spread as fast and likely become endemic more easily.

  • As of now, there are six scenarios that experts think about our future for covid one, we do a better job vaccinating the world.

  • The overall T cell immunity of humanity increases, making the virus more likely to be endemic, resulting in outbreaks and epidemics of varying sizes.

  • Like other respiratory infections.

  • We already have more like the current coronavirus is and flew.

  • We all deal with two still considered endemic.

  • We have small changes in the spike proteins that open up parts of society to reinfection.

  • The virus continues to evolve, but we combat waning immune responses with annual vaccines like the flu shot.

  • And the only people who are highly susceptible are those who are unvaccinated and Children born without immunity.

  • Three.

  • This one is good but not likely.

  • We invent a vaccine like the measles vaccine that offers lifetime protection and the only people who are susceptible our newborn kids for it ends up like respiratory sensational virus, meaning it's around like maybe forever.

  • But in the far future, most people get infected in the first two years of life.

  • It is mild for most kids, but it does cause high hospitalization rates overall for infants as it spreads or evolves, adults have mild symptoms due to their exposure they already had as a kid.

  • Five, it ends up like influenza A, the whittle bugger that drives global flu each year.

  • This BB has rapid evolution and spreads with new variants that are able to escape the immunity elicited by past strains.

  • This results in seasonal epidemics largely spread by adults who can still have severe illness.

  • Like the flu vaccine, our annual coronavirus vaccine will decrease transmissibility and decrease severe disease.

  • But the quick mutation means that these vaccines aren't always properly designed for the specific strains of the year and will need to continually be updated.

  • Six, it ends up like influenza B evolves more slowly and is driven largely by infection in Children who have less immunity than adults who are more immune from prior infection and vaccines.

  • It's important to remember that how quickly SARS COv two evolves in relation to immune response, will continually explain how often we need to be updating these vaccines.

  • Right now.

  • This coronavirus is evolving faster than other seasonal coronavirus is or influence A but experts do predict that it will slow down to maybe needing an updated vaccine every year, like the flu or potentially every two or five years.

  • But it's equally possible that it could mutate into something worse.

  • We just can't know for sure a lot of people are looking at the UK and the US strategy right now, which is just to sort of let the virus rip and potentially infect almost everyone.

  • And while this might be a high risk, high reward strategy, it's also leaving really fertile ground for SARS COv two to take surprising evolutionary leaps.

  • Only time will tell if that'll breed new strains that can reinfect people at high rates or more effectively evade vaccine immunity.

  • So with that in this year, hey, I guess it kind of depends on what the word end means to you.

  • We may be hearing about this for years to come, even though it's not infecting people as severely as it is right now.

  • Regardless, the future is in our hands in some ways, it is important that we vaccinate the whole world, not just the wealthy nations because as homo SAPIEN sapiens suffering from this disease, it is important that we all have the increased T cell mediated immune responses to help fight against this virus is ability to change or mutate and therefore cause the next wave in the coming future.

  • We hope this video helped what's happening right now seems complicated.

  • But it's not as deep as lots of people are trying to make it seem with conspiracy theories and all these things.

  • It's just about biology, biology and evolution and how all of these things are going to play out with the amazing science that we currently have.

  • Thank you for watching, share this with any friends who might need to hear it.

when is the covid pandemic going to end so many people have been comparing the spanish flu to SARS Cov two for example, the spanish flu took place over two years between 1918 to 1920 consisted of four waves.

Subtitles and vocabulary

Operation of videos Adjust the video here to display the subtitles

B2 immune sars immunity flu sars cov immune response

When Will COVID End?

  • 17 1
    林宜悉 posted on 2022/01/09
Video vocabulary