of the holiday shopping season has been Black Friday.

(crowd screaming)

- [Reporter] In Buffalo, New York,

shoppers stampeded at Target.

- And the crowds just keep getting bigger and bigger.

This place is packed with people

and it has been since five o'clock.

- Not only is it a time of sales,

but it helps people psychologically,

helps those shoppers think,

"Oh yeah, Christmas is coming, Hanukkah is coming.

I'm gonna be with my family.

Let me start buying things."

- [Narrator] Waking up at the crack of dawn

to rush into stores became somewhat

of a holiday tradition for many families.

- These are deadly discounts!

(indistinguishable shouting)

- [Narrator] But this year is shaping up to look different.

- What the pandemic has done is actually accelerate

the trends that we'd seen.

And that is a move to contactless, a move to convenience,

really a move toward digital

instead of traditional shopping experience.

So I think that's gonna be a lasting change

that we see as a result.

- [Narrator] The shopping tradition dates back

to the 1920s and 30s when families would start

buying holiday gifts the day after Thanksgiving.

Traditionally, this was the first day that retailers

would start advertising for Christmas.

But by the 2000s, companies were announcing

Black Friday door buster deals earlier and earlier.

(crowd screams)

- [Reporter] Target stores opened at five this morning

and there were plenty of excited shoppers on hand.

- So there were these few horrific moments

where people were dying or getting seriously injured

because of people rushing into a building.

- [Narrator] Some department stores were opening at midnight

and within a few years,

the deals were creeping into Thanksgiving day.

By the 2010s, the one day event had ballooned

to cover the full holiday weekend.

But around this time, retailers were also launching

more online sales on the Monday after Thanksgiving.

This was known as Cyber Monday and it was growing fast.

In 2016, Cyber Monday sales hit a new record

of nearly three and a half billion dollars.

Digital became much more important to the consumer.

So what we found was Cyber Monday actually started

to take on a heightened importance.

- [Narrator] For many companies, thanksgiving weekend,

starting with Black Friday and stretching into Cyber Monday

is one of the most lucrative times of the year.

But recently appetite for the chaos of Black Friday

has started to fade.

And then in 2020, the retail industry

and how people shopped changed.

- Retailers across the country announcing closures

and shortening their store hours

in the hopes of limiting the outbreak.

- Add in the coronavirus pandemic

and there are retailers that may not survive.

- We've seen massive amounts of retail closings,

accelerated bankruptcies this year.

That means there's probably gonna be fewer stores

and there might be more of a consolidation

in where people go to some of these big box stores

that have been open and operating the whole time.

- [Narrator] During lock downs in March and April,

spending slid off a cliff,

with a record drop in retail sales as people were forced

to stay home due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Between April and October, around five thousand US stores

went out of business.

But even the retailers that had weathered the pandemic

are changing the way they operate.

- This year, retailers for the first time in modern memory,

are saying we're not gonna be open on Thanksgiving.

Black Friday, we'll be open the day afterwards,

but on Thanksgiving, deals are online.

- [Narrator] When stores open, consumers can expect

limited hours and capacity, curbside pickups,

and a much calmer atmosphere than years past.

- When folks go in a store, they're wearing a mask,

they're being counted,

and stores are being cleaned all the time.

- [Narrator] But perhaps the biggest change of them all,

the shift to online shopping.

A recent survey found that 70% of consumers

plan to shop online more than normal

to avoid crowds and exposure to the coronavirus.

But this doesn't mean that brick and mortar stores

will disappear entirely.

- We mostly still shop in stores, even now.

Even in a pandemic.

I know folks have been talking for years

about the fact that stores would just slowly disappear.

Shopping will change, how we discover products will change.

- [Narrator] And how these products get delivered

will change too.

As a result of the shift to online shopping,

eCommerce stores are facing major delivery logistics

and shopping hurdles this year.

During the beginning of the pandemic,

consumers were faced with month-long delays

as ports closed and supply chains broke down.

Now the question is whether shipping companies

can handle the mass influx of online orders

that are expected over the next two months.

- A big reason that retailers are pushing people

to shop online early is to spread out sales

and give a little breathing room

to the eCommerce supply chains.

- [Narrator] But right now,

the numbers don't look too promising.

The shipping industry is expected to be

more than four million packages over capacity

during the peak of the holiday season this year.

- It's gonna be really hard to order something

two days before Christmas and have it arrive.

That literally might not be an option

even if you're willing to pay 50 bucks for shipping.

Because there won't be capacity to get it to you.

Which could push people to stores.

- [Narrator] But at the same time,

many have lost their jobs due to the pandemic this year

and may not have the ability to buy gifts.

- We have around 20 million people on unemployment.

There was a little bit of a false sense of security

that came because we got big stimulus checks in the spring.

There was additional unemployment that people were getting

until the end of July.

A lot of that is gone or up in the air

and hasn't really been resolved.

So, retailers are definitely ready for lots of consumers

not to feel like buying at all or buying a lot less.

And even for folks who have jobs,

I think my sense is talking to retailers and consultants,

those folks are saving a lot more,

which points to a little bit of caution.

- [Narrator] This means that certain retailers

that cater to pandemic living,

like groceries and home improvement,

could continue to see profits

while those that would traditionally see big sales

around Black Friday, such as clothing and toys,

could see bigger losses.

The past year has upended the retail industry

and shaken up what is traditionally

the biggest sales period of the year,

but most notably, 2020 has solidified

the trend towards online shopping as a permanent part

of the retail industries future.