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  • on inflation.

  • Let me say that we do expect that as the couple of things first, as the very low readings of last March and April drop out of the 12 month calculation.

  • As we move forward this year, we expect readings on inflation to move up.

  • That's called base effects.

  • That will be a temporary effect, and it won't really signal anything.

  • More importantly, though, with all the factors we've been discussing, you could see spending pick up pretty substantially in the second half of the year.

  • And that would be a good thing, of course, but it could also put upward pressure on prices.

  • And I would just say, uh, that essentially, uh, it's not.

  • It doesn't seem likely that that would result in very large increases or that they would be persistent.

  • We've all been living in a world for a quarter of a century war where all of the pressures were disinflationary, you know, pushing downward on inflation.

  • We've averaged less than 2% inflation for more than the last 25 years.

  • Inflation dynamics do change over time, but they don't change on a dime.

  • And so we don't really think how see how a burst of of, ah, fiscal support or spending that's not that doesn't last for many years would actually change those inflation dynamics.

  • I will also say there's, uh, forecasters need to be humble and have a great deal to be humble about frankly.

  • But so if if we turn, if it does turn out that unwanted inflation pressures arising their persistent and we have the tools to deal with that and we will you ask about the US economy in the world economy, I do think.

  • And, uh, many forecasters agree that once we get this pandemic under control, um, you know, we could be getting through this work much more quickly than we had feared, and and that would be terrific.

  • But it's not done yet.

  • The job is not done.

  • That's the thing I keep coming back to is we've got to finish the job with the pandemic, getting them to control so that the U.

on inflation.

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B1 inflation persistent dime humble spending economy

Inflation doesn't change on a dime, says Powell

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    林宜悉 posted on 2021/02/25
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