You must stay at home.

England will return to a tiered system of local restrictions.

There have been so many different interventions to try to reduce the spread of co vid.

It's understandable that when cases do fall, politicians point to their measures is doing the trick.

It's easy to credit restrictions when they align with the virus retreating, but it could be harder scientifically to put a finger on what actually happened.

In Liverpool, cases fell sharply after tougher restrictions were introduced, but it turns out that cases had already peaked before the tougher restrictions came in.

More recently, London's positive covert cases started rising three weeks into lock down.

Could it be a Z?

Important as the restrictions are Justus important or how we behave in response to them?

The actual regulations, of course, are important only insofar as they actually changed people's behavior.

That's what's crucial, so whether the virus levels of infection are going up or down is a direct reflection of what people are actually doing.

It doesn't mean that they're not obeying the regulations or indeed that they are.

What it means is that they're behaving overall in a way that allows the virus has spread.

Or it doesn't on bats the whole range of different activities, both within our households, within our workplaces, within our schools that we all have to think about in terms of managing this epidemic, The government has set out a Siris of interventions that scientists say reduce the spread of coronavirus and deaths thes air incorporated into the tears.

They include closure of bars, pubs, cafes and restaurants.

This will have a moderate impact on covert transmission restrictions on outdoor gatherings has a low impact on the closure of schools, also has a moderate impact.

Cases have risen and then fallen at different speeds in different places.

For some, we place too much emphasis on easy to understand.

Restrictions such as eating out are not enough emphasis on many people's living situations.

The things that really matter, how do you get your food?

How do you survive if if you're in debt all the time, how could you possibly isolate who looks after the kids when you goto work so you can keep yourself respect on what happens if that person is age 65 on a bit frail and has had some illnesses.

These side of things have talked about a great deal less as's compared to the middle class aspects of life.

One study prepared for sage found, perhaps counterintuitively that lock down made least difference in reducing contacts in areas that already had the highest restrictions.

Lock down in England on November.

The fifth seems to have resulted in reductions in mean contacts made by individuals who were previously under Tier one or Tier two restrictions, but appears to have made no significant difference to mean contacts reported by individuals in Tier three.

You know clearly if pubs and restaurants are closed them people can't go to them.

But is it this specifically not going to pubs and restaurants that has the effect or to the announcements act more generally as a trigger for people to alter their behavior?

One of the really striking things we've seen in recent weeks has been a decrease in infections amongst people over 70 um, almost irrespective of tears.

So one thing I think that's going on is that the more news you have about tears in them or worried it is about the disease.

Increasing numbers of elderly people are isolating themselves and seeing people less.

So is the idea of Christmas being a complete free for all misplaced majority of people expecting to be very restrained on if they are, Then we should see that reflected in the levels of cases and the number of hospitalizations that accumulate over Christmas and beyond.

It's what people will do that matters.

I think the most useful thing that scientists and public health officials could do.

It's advise people on how to do what they're allowed to do safely.

So with behavior being so important, the question is, how do you encourage people to make the best decisions to keep all safe?

No.