Name: #Budget2020: Rating SA’s Budget 2020, has it done enough to avoid a downgrade?
Uploaded: 2020-03-16T19:52:50.000Z
Duration: 27 min 1 s
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how they welcome to our very last a panel discussion for the day.

A closing with a ratings and a market analysis off the budget speech or eyes were Auntie Don't winning for this budget as investors set on the edge of their seats for the upcoming will.

Basic passive voice

Rather do continue to sit on the edge of their seats for the upcoming Moody's rating, which prior to the budget that was delivered earlier today was suspected to be a downgrade.

And what are the views off other ratings agencies to South African spending and collection plans?

I do have with me Carrie Friend, the CEO of Alfa Wealth, Tonga, Rhys Iki, the sovereign analyst at S and P Emerging Markets and Adrian several, the CEO of Cannon Asset Managers.

But before we get into the conversation, a quick look at the market well, it is.

The question that remains on everybody's lips was the budget speech that was delivered by a finance minister, Diethelm Winnie, enough to avoid a ratings downgrade by Moody's, but not only Moody's to avoid a further ratings downgrade from other ratings agencies like s and P, perhaps.

You join us in studio, and we have to know from a ratings for effective your view on the budget that was delivered by the finance minister.

Thank you for thank you for the opportunity, I think.

We last changed our outlook on South Africa in November 2019 following the presentation off the M, V, P S and M.

To be Pierce Waas, a weaker best line than what we had.

So what the budget is done now is toe ofem, the MTV Pierce best line, however, that information off that broad from Wick is unchanged, but it comes with different dynamics to dynamics.

One is lower economy growth, which is now a reality, as well as the deficits that are higher reality.

But the adjustment process is going to have to come from adjusting wages.

The public sector, which bill which lead us into the politics off the government, the politics of the the politics off the trap, a tight alliance so broadly the framework is unchanged from the empty yes, so what it does is to give time to the government to for a pet for us as well, to see how realistic the government assumptions are going to be.

Can they get what they want from the unions?

If they can do that, maybe that can help the fiscal from weak.

Keeping the outlook for a long appeared so unchanged possibly could not be a bad thing.

Adrian and carry to bring you in here because we weren't only talking about a Moody's downgrade.

We're talking about the possibility of upsetting other ratings agencies.

So if S and P is saying that we're still mutual, a computer opposition there in November.

Adrian, I think the reading is pleasantly surprising and the currency responded with Wow, that was a bit of a rabbit out the hat.

Look, there were some afternoon factors that mattered, but if you look at the rant move, it was more than a market open in the Europe.

In the United States, there was a local factors going on.

Having said that, you know, the real elephant in the room is the 1 60 billion, and it's all good and well to talk about taking 1 60 billion out of the wage bill.

You don't sound confident that would will, but will probe you further on that.

That scary just to bring you in on your views off the budget and also the statement that has just been made by S and P saying that it's pretty neutral.

I mean, I think a CZ both the Sanhedrin have commented.

It's making all the right noises, you know?

Can you balance the needs of us are two and the other unions, you know, because that's gonna be the big trick care and the question still to be answered.

All right, so it's balancing those knees.

I mean, the finance minister saying that their consultations or talks are happening behind closed doors.

The proof will be in the pudding, will wait to see.

I'd just like to get your views on some of the announcements that were made regarding a key affect is in the economy.

And some of the changes they all right, is calm down, get a bailout this time around.

But there was quite a number of new initiatives I put on the table.

They just do a views on the government's plans to push ahead with its plans to restructure its come.

Yeah, I mean, from our perspective, we don't think that they're a lot off initiatives that I knew one escort today, There could have been more.

I think for a while now, if you are looking for more immediate radical reforms on sa Ys, you can see the process that has gone on with S A with the business rescue, they immediately launched the process toe cut roots and also to consider reducing employment.

And in a sense, this is from an independent party that is trying to look at financial sustainability.

I don't think that some of the announcement made today actually go directly to addressing the financial sustainability off esque.

Continue with the UN bundling or putting into functional separation off units so that they can see the course.

So we're still kind off in the same ballpark.

No measures asides to try and make us come better.

So what was reiterated was the fact that the big Window four and renewable energy would be accelerated.

Big Window five given more momentum the i.

R P plan and now it's the national regulator that just needs to give the thumbs up.

And also municipalities who can afford candor by electricity directly from independent power producers.

You're saying that this doesn't move the needle in terms of this comes back on sheet, I think, in terms of escorts Palin City s.

But I think in the near Tim the energy supply situation is still going to be constrained.

But I think it's a welcome issue that you can have more suppliers producing energy, whether it's from the I.

P s or it's from whichever area that can come, that is welcome.

But perhaps what is more, it's not just the production, but also perhaps if other operators can also used different channels at an escort, because all of that production was to rely on Eskom.

It can help all of the new players that are coming onto the greed to help increase the energy supply.

Alright, I must say, Adrian, carry it is gonna take some time to get used to seeing underrated.

I'm so accustomed to seeing him in, um, annual general meetings or delivering statements at the J.

Are did some of the pronouncements made with regards to this company.

So with the S O is more broadly, the thing that worries me is the hole is much bigger than the numbers that they're being put on the table.

And Iskan needs much more money than the number on the table.

Um, and and you know, why don't we know that number's still Eskimo is a real drag on the economy.

We're talking about a better growth environment, but it's hardly enough off a growth environment to get the ratings agencies to change their perspective.

On South Africa, I was gonna say to get us off your backs, but look, it's better, but it's not good enough.

The bailout money proposed over the next three years for S.

S is as much as was granted over the last 10.

So these are big numbers that we're talking about, and it's great that the discipline has been brought to s a.

Now it's time for this great big, single country risk in the form of escape.

I'm wondering if you actually ahead a peek at perhaps how this compounds reacted to some of the pronounce its pronouncements that were made and also your view on, um, the plans for sa Ys is come essay.

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#Budget2020: Rating SA’s Budget 2020, has it done enough to avoid a downgrade?

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