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  • I'm guessing the most stuff.

  • Much awaited panel of the event.

  • This is my third, uh, totally moderating the panel of shipowners.

  • And every year, it's one of the highlights of my one of the highlights of the events, Um, all of our panel members, and very quickly, just to name them.

  • We have Mr Irregulars Muddy Night case, Mr Petros Baba's Mr Jorge Cano Mo and Mr George Procopio.

  • All of our panel members are operating in a multiple of sectors and they have comprehensive view What is really driving the industry across all sectors today we're gonna be talking around supply, demand capital.

  • We're going to touch a little bit upon the regulatory challenges and the environment discussed previously.

  • But just because Mr Brocco Bill will be leaving us in five minutes, I would like him to pick one of those topics and to share his insights.

  • Whether it's managing supply.

  • How can we Where do we expect demand to becoming in the next coming years?

  • Or what are the re sources of capital?

  • If you can share some of your insights?

  • Mr.

  • Barak appeal.

  • I replied with this, but I would like unfortunately Mrs Secretary General left but I'll pass the message that my, my my suggestion is toe try to implement all three solutions scrubbers, low sulphur fuels and low speed, and this can be implemented from day one.

  • So nobody loses face whatever is available and the ones that they want the one solution on the other.

  • But what is achievable route is the reduction off day one off air pollution.

  • So we are not in favor of scrubbers, only not off Arctic.

  • It fuels right fuels only not off slow speed.

  • Only all three together and and ship owners toe have the option toe follow whatever they feed.

  • They think feet best now about the future of shipping.

  • Always.

  • I'm very, very scared to make predictions.

  • But as there is no better way, more efficient way for transporting goods and the prosperity to be passed off the one region to the other than ships, ships always will be around, and Toby successful innovation that is taking creating new ideas is always the secret.

  • I do believe that the last 5000 years of history and shipping in Greece confirms and assures all of us that these is going to thrive in Greece for a long time to get to come.

  • And the villas of ship owners and the medicines from criteria in Santorini or off the lows for firms.

  • These on the best possible way nowadays way have there is off losing our competitive advantage.

  • Virtues are friends from East.

  • We have to join them.

  • We have to show them how we've done it the last 5000 years.

  • And you have to make toe find synergies that we make joint the businesses personally.

  • I followed these model I tried toe find new routes.

  • We made history going through the North Sea route six years ago.

  • Now, this is standard practice, but we have the right equipment to do so.

  • We made a joint venture with Sinotrans and Tiny Lindsay, and we're proud about this.

  • Will do more of same.

  • We believe that the trade will evolve and all players can have part of it.

  • And, uh, I'm not scared at all about the future.

  • Shipping will be strong in Greece and Greeks will excel for the years to come.

  • Thank you so much.

  • See you after two years.

  • Okay?

  • All right.

  • Thank you.

  • Mr Broke appeal.

  • I was on Orner to listen to you, even for a few minutes.

  • Let's continue.

  • As we said, we're gonna be talking around supply and demand and capital raising.

  • The first topic is supply.

  • And we have seen that excessive supply was driven with the new new building orders.

  • And it has been said that this has caused much of the many of the elements that have been inflicted on to this industry.

  • However, we've seen a slow down directing.

  • You speak closer, Mike, because we cannot hear you.

  • Okay?

  • Can you hear me now?

  • All right.

  • Thank you.

  • Sorry.

  • As I was saying, this, um, excessive supply was driven by excessive new building orders.

  • And many have said that this has caused many of ailments inflicting this industry.

  • We saw a slow down in new orders.

  • We've seen Maur layups on increased scrapping taking place over the past few years.

  • The first question is to Mr Muddy Night gaze.

  • So where are we today in terms of order book and managing the supply balance?

  • Okay.

  • As far as the order book was concerned on the dry cargo shy we have, it's almost 10% of the fleet.

  • On the other hand, that's a low figure because you need to take a course.

  • The rescue on the market conditions in the last, then yes, as time passing very quickly have not been favorable for right on dhe off course, we have seen many changes in the dry sector and, of course, the appetite that what's seen in the past with massive ordering has not been the case in the last years.

  • And I think that this is something that is extremely helpful for the market and the if this continues to be the case, I think that we're kidding out before much better times.

  • As for us, the order book in the container again, who had markets that have suffered and again, who have seen tremendous changes in the industry?

  • Ah, in the container sector and for about the year who have seen a change in the market.

  • Uh, even though the order book is as low as 12% who had the massive scrapping and the caption recovered in the market?

  • And also we have seen that prices have gone up between 5200% depending on the size is on dhe.

  • That's about US order book again For the group side, we have seen some massive ordering in Viet sissies in the last years.

  • That off course didn't kill the market on, of course, what's happened with up with that is your production also the, uh who have been used to inventories?

  • And ofcourse, we have seen the market for one year now to be suffering on.

  • On the other hand, this has helped to see a massive scrapping off 11 million tones in here to see versus 20 half 1,000,000 times.

  • That's a modest in 2016 and off course, that is, a number off seeps over 100.

  • Seems that, uh, over the year would become over 15 years old and over the next two years will have another kind of native fantasies which, off course or this is helping the market.

  • And we are optimistic that, uh, with this crap that's taking place and a reduction in the orders again, as off next year, I will be able to see better market.

  • Thank you, Mr Clennam.

  • What sectors do you expect will do well, in which one's main struggle in 2018?

  • That that is a easy question to answer?

  • The tankers will be struggling.

  • They have already been struggling at me with the 2018 has been the worst year since old nine, which is after the credit crisis.

  • The Buckeye carriers are on the rise on DDE.

  • The prospects are good for the next 234 years, with only one provision that China will keep on increasing the importance of iron or like to have in the past.

  • Because I don't know accounts for about 30% of the world transportation needs, both in terms off Don Miles and in actual deadweight tons and ah, 30 30%.

  • These iron ore China accounts for 70% said that 72% off the island or worldwide transportation.

  • The import, so it's very trying related.

  • The rest of the commodities air more evenly spread out cold is about 20% worldwide trade important into China and 20% into India, and the rest is spread.

  • Spread out are the other commodity.

  • So what is interesting to watch is the cape size lessons because it keeps his visit predominantly.

  • Carrie, uh, IRA more the containers.

  • I think they're on the right.

  • You have a load off issues there in what second invest because you have different sizes and they seem to be.

  • The trade seems to be constantly evolving.

  • What used to be five years or 10 years ago, the best size is now not the best.

  • It's probably amongst the worst.

  • And then you will have obviously new sectors like the L N G, which the Greeks have I chose the right time to invest has, uh, bye good prospects with long term employment if you want to have a secure income and hopefully you know, with a spot market that will be developing as time goes by.

  • Thank you, Mr Pepe.

  • We've seen several consolidation moves across the dry bulk and the tanker markets.

  • Is consolidation still a solution for today?

  • Thank you, Sophia.

  • Well, consolidation for public companies is important because it makes it more enticing for institutional investors.

  • But I don't want to talk about public confidence in on that question.

  • In general, I would say that consolidation offers economies of scale on various levels.

  • Companies, um it gives better access toe loans way.

  • We're seeing that banks are easier to lend the bigger companies, and what is very important is that when you have a big company, you can get better human capital and basically what is it?

  • Cos are consisted of our human capital.

  • So the bigger you are, the better people you can have.

  • These are the people that make people make companies.

  • No, but I don't.

  • I'm not sure that consolidation is everything.

  • If you think about it, smaller companies may have some issues with, um, finding loans as easily as big ones.

  • Or maybe they do not purchase as cheap as a company of 100 vessels.

  • Good.

  • However, the sea boner that has 8 10 15 vessels, he can pay particular attention to his vessels himself.

  • And I think this is very important.

  • He can.

  • His vessels are his babies.

  • When you have 820 vessels, this is not possible to do so.

  • I would say consolidations important, but I would not.

  • I do not expect any time soon that smaller companies will be phased out of our business.

  • Thank you.

  • Thank you.

  • So we got a view for this supply its side of the operations.

  • But let's look a little bit around the demand side.

  • And I think Mr Economy, you started off by talking around China in the hole.

  • So China is deemed to have a positive impact in in actually helping the tribal sector.

  • What else is their respective dry bulk?

  • In addition, or besides China on the demand side of the operations for your skin, Mr Economy?

  • I think I covered the basics.

  • You know, the dry bulk is about China, because that is differentiating factor.

  • The rest we grow is it will be the man, you know.

  • Going forward will be on the order of 3% 4% whatever it has been historical.

  • It was only during the super cycle that had 67%.

  • So the only thing that could change on the downside is China.

  • And that's something that everybody that is involved in the Cape sector especially, should be looking at.

  • But don't forget that if one sector suffers, there isn't some ripple effect to the rest.

  • Okay.

  • Thank you, Mr Barba.

  • Again, with respect to the dry bog, there are certain concerns that there's a trend of certain of some of the large producers creating or building their own fleet to transport.

  • Is that a real thing threat?

  • Or is this something that the industry can manage because it's not gonna impact it?

  • Significantly, This is coming later in time.

  • First of all, just to give you a view of my view of the market, I think that the rest of this year's gonna be a good year.

  • I think that was slow in the first half, lower than we expected.

  • But I believe that a lot of cargo has been left behind.

  • That's coming.

  • That's coming on the second part.

  • I think 2019 is maybe slower a bit because there's a lot of supply, but there's going to be good demand as well.

  • And so then where we are scene 2020 coming in where I am afraid I hold a different opinion from most of my colleagues.

  • I think that, um, environmental regulations are going to help sipping in many respects Vance's will, I mean the South for regulation, for example, Andi.

  • As most of the people were not installed, scrappers is going toe.

  • They will be obliged to to burn this a loyal or gas oil that the prices of which are going to go very high in my view and therefore the immediate effect is going to be that message would slow down there, speed everyone not off slowing down the speed of a vessel equals between five and seven per hand percent less supply.

  • This is going to be extremely important, and it's going to be on every type of vessel in the in the high seas.

  • So I think 2020 onwards, whether you elect toe, install scrubbers or whether you decide toe do gas oil is going to be a good year and APS 2021 and longer than that.