Name: Are we heading for a global recession?
Uploaded: 2020-03-09T23:51:38.000Z
Duration: 23 min 42 s
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I'm Katie Martin, the markets editor here at the Financial Times in London, sitting with our economics commentator Martin Sand.

Today we're discussing whether or not the world is heading for a recession will be trying to answer your questions, so please leave them in the comments section.

Some people have already left some great comments and thank you for those.

If you want to read our latest market coverage, click on the story in the description.

This is the question that's become so important because we've seen that some signals indicate we could be on the verge of an economic meltdown.

Global PM eyes showing that cos of contracting and getting nervous Indian, Chinese and European economies are all slowing down.

If we knew the answer to this question would be sitting on a yacht somewhere rather than in this studio.

This is old joke about economists and how economists have predicted nine out of the last five recessions.

It just means that people rarely get this right.

Yeah, alright, it's People predict one and one doesn't happen or they don't predict, and then it does happen.

So you know, with that as a benchmark, we're gonna least try.

So I don't know what there's going to be a recession.

I don't think it's certainly not inevitable, but it could happen.

You could think of it as recessions in sort of segments of the world economy.

So trade is hurting because of the trade war, so trade and some parts of the global trade flows are contracting.

So you could sort of talk over trade, recession, most goods that are traded, our manufacturing goods right.

The goods are traded more than service is, and there is a manufacturing recession in the sense, said manufacturing.

Production is contracting in Europe in the US now.

So for one part of the economy, there is a contraction.

And overall, of course, there's a slowdown.

The world economy and most big economies have been scrolling down for the last year, even Maur and the question is, s load and go all the way to zero and below.

Well, I mean, like you, I don't have a crystal ball.

I don't know the definitive answer, but it's certainly, ah, question that people in markets are asking increasingly often, not least because we've just been in this bull run for such a long time.

Ever since the crisis of 2008 markets have been pretty benign.

They've bean do stop by lots of central bank support, and now we're at the point where people are sort of looking at their watches and thinking we sort of do a bit of a pullback.

So people start casting around and looking for reasons to worry.

Now, clearly, a very big reason to worry is trade.

As you say, the number one thing that comes up in discussions with economists and investors around the city is about what's going on between the U.

Do you think that this is a genuine reason for caution?

Or, I mean, it's clearly reason for caution is a reason for panic.

Or do you think that both sides will back away before they really go All in?

There are lots of people who benefit from trade.

Yeah, there's Ah, there were very few people who are calling for an outright trade war before basically Trump, look President Trump launch one.

He also has a lifelong belief that the US is being ripped off by early was Japan.

It's also Germany, and it could well move to Europe at some point his target.

But you also see his sort of pattern of making a lot of chaos and then striking a deal that sometimes looks very much like what he had before this.

What happened in the trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico, you know, speculatively.

My bet is that when it's politically convenient for him, he will, you know, declare victory.

There will be some changes to the trading relationship between us and China.

Buddy will be back to something more or less similar to what we had before, But I think there's an outside chance outside chance that there are by now enough protectionist forces in the U.

That really want to kind of re bring back these global supply chains that have developed over the last 30 35 years.

S is a big enough economy that he can kind of go it alone.

Ill will be less rich as a result, but it can do it.

It's a huge economy, but that's going to be a big political fight that isn't just about Trump, but also inside the Democratic Party.

There are different opinions about trade with China, so it's It's an open question.

I think the probability is that at some point when it's politically convenient, it will quiet down and we'll get back to know quite the status quo ante, but something that looks pretty much similar to what we used to.

And then we can just stop talking about the whole thing.

Something you've already brought up is manufacturing Andi.

This is obviously first in the line of fire when trade wars really get fired up on dhe.

I think we've got some chance to demonstrate this, that we should be able to get on the screen for you.

Now there's a large part of the world that is showing that manufacturers air getting incredibly nervous.

One of the things that you hear a lot about in this situation is PM eyes purchasing managers indices.

Basically, there are companies that go around calling up companies and saying, Hi, how's business?

What's your hiring schedule Like, what it would do your inventories like, how you feeling about the next few months and that produces these indices called P M Eyes on.

They're a really good indicator of how worried people are.

And so, you know, you have to kind of know what you're doing when you're looking at these payments, what they are telling you and what they're not.

But when you get a number that's under 50 that is their way of saying That's the indices way of saying.

Yet we're now looking at a contraction, and there are lots of spots around the world.

You look a Germany is obviously the big example in Europe.

But there are lots of places around the world where company executives said, say yes, we worried this this is hurting.

I mean, how much of a feed through is that, too?

Well, that's exactly the question, because manufacturing.

It's still important, but it's actually not a very big part.

Yeah, maybe 20% depending on the economy.

Most people don't make stuff they work in.

Service is, you know, shops, cafes, restaurants.

Well, there could be this sort of service is that make the economy go round?

But you don't see them on the high Street on the main street if you're watching in the U.

Accounting legal service is all sorts of expert work.

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Are we heading for a global recession?

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