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  • We've all had enough of this.

  • Getting the Brexit election done.

  • Argh!

  • Too much?

  • No?

  • I'm losing my voice.

  • Right, so Robert, you've got a festive frog in your throat.

  • So I'm going to let you offload the talking.

  • And you can have light felt pen duties today

  • because you're unwell.

  • But anyway, here we are, results day.

  • And a new blue dawn has broken, has it not?

  • It has.

  • Tories have got a majority of 80.

  • It's a bigger win than I think either of us expected.

  • I think, as we showed at the end of the last talk,

  • we both sort of thought the Tories were going to make it.

  • But I certainly didn't think you were

  • going to be anything like as big as that.

  • No.

  • So how did we get here?

  • Have we got any prediction?

  • We have.

  • In fact, I happen to know that people refer

  • to this backdrop as the shed.

  • So I'm going to root around in the shed, where

  • I have some of our old artwork.

  • People have also criticised us for using paper,

  • saying we should be recycling.

  • So I hope they notice that we are recycling...

  • Reusing.

  • ...our drawings.

  • So essentially, everything the Tories tried to do worked.

  • And everything the other sides tried to do to stop them

  • failed.

  • It's really quite as simple as that.

  • So the Tories managed to break through this so-called red wall

  • of Labour heartland seats, not just right across the north

  • of England but into Wales, where large chunks of Wales are now

  • Tory.

  • It's true that the Labour party hung on in a lot of London,

  • which stays red, and in other urban seats.

  • But the Tories also held on in the south of England

  • against the Lib Dems.

  • The Tories' biggest losses were in Scotland, where they

  • lost seven of their 13 seats.

  • Other than that, I think they lost about four seats

  • in the rest of the country.

  • The Liberals took Richmond Park in London.

  • But a lot of their big targets they didn't make.

  • And they didn't unseat.

  • No seats off them.

  • No.

  • And the Lib Dems didn't manage their scalp

  • of the night, which was supposed to be the foreign secretary

  • Dominic Raab in Esher.

  • But instead of Dominic Raab being the Portillo moment,

  • the Portillo moment was Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem

  • leader in Dunbartonshire, decapitated by the SNP.

  • Very sad end.

  • And Nicola Sturgeon barely able to contain her joy.

  • Did you see the video there?

  • It's been a tough fight between the Lib Dems

  • and the SNP in that seat for the last three elections.

  • It's been an awful election for the Liberal Democrats

  • and for poor old Jo Swinson in particular.

  • Right.

  • Let's draw a results map then.

  • Look, I'm going to do one of my absolutely

  • wonderful geographical messes.

  • Maybe a bit simpler than last time.

  • Here we go.

  • And here's Northern Ireland.

  • That's the Isle of Wight.

  • How's that?

  • Is that Okay?

  • That looks like something I put on my dresser, I think.

  • Okay, Okay, so the SNP is just so

  • dominant north of the border, no.

  • And actually, that's really interesting,

  • because even though the Tories did way better than

  • we were all expecting in England and Wales.

  • Actually, we'd begun to expect that the Tories would hold

  • onto some seats in Scotland.

  • But the SNP really did very well indeed.

  • They basically chased the Labour party out of Scotland.

  • They played the grievances of Scottish voters

  • at being forced into a Brexit they didn't vote for.

  • And it has paid off for them in, and it has paid off for them

  • in this election.

  • On top of which, Nicola Sturgeon was easily

  • the most effective political performer

  • on television in the debates.

  • This has obviously raised-...

  • what's going on down there?

  • I don't know.

  • I'm just adding the south-west.

  • Carry on, carry on.

  • This has obviously raised questions

  • about a second Scottish independence

  • referendum and a new push.

  • And the SNP certainly are very emboldened.

  • And this will be something that's weighing heavily

  • on Boris Johnson's mind.

  • But you think that this unexpected majority of 80

  • actually means the story, as it continues from this point,

  • could be much more interesting on Brexit and on the union,

  • right?

  • Because if Boris Johnson had had a much slimmer majority

  • we may have got out of the parliamentary deadlock

  • of the hung parliament.

  • But he, the prime minister, would still have not properly

  • been in control and possibly would

  • have been still under the influence of the European

  • Research Group, the arch-Brexiteers

  • in his own party.

  • The Brexit deadline coming up.

  • He had said he would get the whole trade deal negotiated

  • by the end of 2020.

  • But actually now that he's so powerful

  • and has had such a convincing win,

  • he's got way more room to do more interesting things

  • and to be more flexible, right?

  • And not only has he got a big majority,

  • but the opposition is shattered.

  • The Labour party is down to just over 200 seats.

  • It's going to be fighting itself for the next six months.

  • The Liberal Democrats hammered.

  • Only the SNP are cohesive.

  • So not only has he got a big majority,

  • but he's got it at the time when the opposition is very weak.

  • Brexit is now going to happen.

  • Correct.

  • By the end of January, the UK will

  • have left the European Union.

  • So that uncertainty is gone.

  • So that's happening, he has more room for manoeuvre and also

  • just more authority.

  • He's just won a big election.

  • So that's the biggest Conservative victory

  • since Margaret Thatcher in 1987.

  • So he's got all that authority.

  • We don't know the extent to which he

  • wants to decouple from the ERG.

  • We know some of his advisers have contempt for them.

  • But we're not sure.

  • But I think the point that you're making and which I agree

  • with, is that...

  • what?

  • No, it's fine.

  • Do agree with the point you think

  • I'm making, because it's not the one I'm making.

  • You actually said it.

  • And I was going agree with you.

  • This is most unfair.

  • Because of the threat of Scotland,

  • because of the new seats that he has won,

  • it might change his approach to the Brexit discussions.

  • He's now got to conduct the next stage of talks,

  • the trade talks with a mind to not doing anything that pushes

  • Scotland further away and keeping happy

  • these new seats that they have won,

  • the so-called red wall, the manufacturing

  • heartlands, as were at least, in the north and in the Midlands.

  • All these seats...

  • There are still Labour seats there.

  • Yes, of course there are.

  • But I mean, it is quite striking how much blue

  • there is there now.

  • Those seats have different priorities

  • to the wealthy south.

  • Quite.

  • And they've got MPs who are going

  • to have to be mindful of those things

  • if they want to keep their seats this next election,

  • because as Boris Johnson said, they've been lent these votes.