THOUGH

THOUGH IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY

THOUGH IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY

THOUGH IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS

IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS

IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED,

LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED,

LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED, OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH

THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED, OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH

THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED, OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH INFLATION NEAR TARGET.

OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH INFLATION NEAR TARGET.

OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH INFLATION NEAR TARGET. MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S

INFLATION NEAR TARGET. MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S

INFLATION NEAR TARGET. MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW

MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW

MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN

DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN

DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT

PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT

PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT BE

IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT BE

IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT BE THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A

BE THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A

BE THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3%

THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3%

THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3% IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A

REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3% IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A

REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3% IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT.

IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT.

IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT. SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE

PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT. SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE

PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT. SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE

SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE

SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER

VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER

VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL

2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL

2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED.

PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED.

PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED. IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP

DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED. IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP

DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED. IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS

IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS

IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS REASSURING.

IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS REASSURING.

IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS REASSURING. ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE

REASSURING. ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE

REASSURING. ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME

ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME

ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED

INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED

INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED BY TEMPORARY FACTORS.

GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED BY TEMPORARY FACTORS.

GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED BY TEMPORARY FACTORS. THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON

BY TEMPORARY FACTORS. THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON

BY TEMPORARY FACTORS. THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS

THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS

THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS AND STRIKES.

THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS AND STRIKES.

THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS AND STRIKES. A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT

AND STRIKES. A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT

AND STRIKES. A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS

A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS

A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE

IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE

IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES

INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES

INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST

UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST

UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE

WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE

WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN

HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN

HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA.

ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA.

ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA. COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE

RETAIL SALES DATA. COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE

RETAIL SALES DATA. COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN

COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN

COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE

THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE

THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE CAUTIOUS.

CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE CAUTIOUS.

CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE CAUTIOUS. PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL

CAUTIOUS. PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL

CAUTIOUS. PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR

PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR

PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING

ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING

ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE

LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE

LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE IN CERTAIN PROVINCES.

SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE IN CERTAIN PROVINCES.

SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE IN CERTAIN PROVINCES. NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS

IN CERTAIN PROVINCES. NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS

IN CERTAIN PROVINCES. NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER

NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER

NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE

REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE

REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE FOURTH.

CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE FOURTH.

CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE FOURTH. HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE

FOURTH. HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE

FOURTH. HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT

HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT

HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH.

HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH.

HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH. SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT

CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH. SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT

CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH. SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER

SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER

SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER SLOWDOWN.

TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER SLOWDOWN.

TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER SLOWDOWN. THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST.

SLOWDOWN. THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST.

SLOWDOWN. THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST. BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE

THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST. BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE

THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST. BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE

BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE

BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE RISK IN MIND.

DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE RISK IN MIND.

DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE RISK IN MIND. IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY

RISK IN MIND. IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY

RISK IN MIND. IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER

IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER

IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED

DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED

DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED SOME TIME IN DECEMBER.

CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED SOME TIME IN DECEMBER.

CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED SOME TIME IN DECEMBER. ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN

SOME TIME IN DECEMBER. ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN

SOME TIME IN DECEMBER. ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY,

ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY,

ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS

MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS

MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN

EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN

EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN 2019.

QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN 2019.

QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN 2019. IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED

2019. IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED

2019. IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS

IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS

IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE

WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE

WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO

COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO

COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES.

SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES.

SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES. AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT

LOWER INTEREST RATES. AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT

LOWER INTEREST RATES. AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE NOT.

AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE NOT.

AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE NOT. GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED

THEY WERE NOT. GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED

THEY WERE NOT. GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING

GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING

GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING INCREASED FINANCIAL

AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING INCREASED FINANCIAL

INCREASED FINANCIAL

INCREASED FINANCIAL VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN

VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN

VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN EXERCISE WITH REDUCED DOWN SIDE