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  • Ready or not, 2020 is here- at least politically.

  • It’s important enough that I thought I would wear a tie.

  • This cycle will be consumed by the presidential race, but don’t forget about the fight for

  • Congress.

  • In the Senate, Republicans picked up a couple seats in 2018.

  • But Democrats held their losses to a minimum in the face of a challenging map, keeping

  • a majority within reach in 2020.

  • First of all, we need to be precise about how we talk about the fight for the Senate

  • because the number of seats Democrats need to control the Senate depends on the outcome

  • of the presidential race.

  • Democrats need to gain 4 seats for a majority, but a gain of 3 seats would be enough for

  • control of the Senate if there is a new Democratic vice president to break a 50-50 tie.

  • The 2020 Senate map is a stark contrast to 2018.

  • In 2018, Democrats defended 26 Senate seats while Republican defended just 9.

  • In 2020, Republicans will be defending 22 seats while Democrats defend 12.

  • More targets should be good for the party trying to recapture the majority.

  • But 2016 was the first time in history that all of the senate results matched the presidential

  • outcome.

  • A similar dynamic (and presidential result) in 2020 would produce no net gain for Democrats

  • because they would lose Alabama and Michigan while winning Colorado and Maine.

  • Using the 2012 presidential results as a guide for the 2020 Senate map, Democrats would gain

  • two Senate seats.

  • If the 2008 presidential results applied, Democrats would gain three seats.

  • The initial list of vulnerable senators is fairly short.

  • Just two Democrats are up for re-election in Trump states: Doug Jones and Gary Peters.

  • And two Republicans up for re-election in Clinton states: Cory Gardner and Susan Collins.

  • But Republicans Martha McSally, Thom Tillis, David Perdue, and Joni Ernst should have competitive

  • races and Democrats Tina Smith and Jeanne Shaheen could have competitive races as well.

  • Overall, the presidential race will impact the fight for the Senate in multiple ways.

  • Eight races will take place in competitive presidential states.

  • There are at least two races with incumbent senators contemplating running for president

  • (New Jersey and Oregon), and two states with a potential Senate candidate considering running

  • for president first (Montana, Colorado).

  • Of course it’s too early to tell what the presidential race will look like, how voters

  • will feel about the economy and direction of the country, and whether theyll believe

  • more Democrats are needed in Washington.

  • And it’s too early to determine the final scope and size of the Senate playing field,

  • which will be partially determined by retirements, recruitment, primaries, and how the presidential

  • race plays out.

  • Based on the initial map, Republicans should be viewed as slight favorites to maintain

  • control, but weve got a long way to go, and the margin is close enough that the majority

  • should be regarded as in-play.

Ready or not, 2020 is here- at least politically.

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B2 senate presidential presidential race race gain map

First 2020 Senate race ratings are here

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/03/04
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