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  • Let's be honest, it would make our lives a lot easier if we could predict the

  • future and this is especially true when it comes to currency because we'd really

  • like to know where the Australian dollar is going to go. It could be because

  • you're about to travel overseas or if you want to make transfers for your

  • business or even if you're just interested in foreign exchange in

  • general. Whatever your reason this video will look at whether the Australian

  • dollar could go up, what's impacting it and where it could be by the end of 2019.

  • Let's get into it. Let's find out what the big four banks are actually

  • forecasting by the end of 2019. First up ANZ. Their current forecast see the

  • Australian dollar remaining around the 70 cents mark by the end of 2019. Similar

  • to both negative expectations last year. Westpac has a similar expectation but

  • over the course of 2019 the dollar will slowly decline to 70 cents by the end of

  • the year. CBA and NAB are much more optimistic. Both expect the Australian

  • dollar to rise gradually towards 75 US cents by 2019 and that's more than 5%

  • optimistic than the other banks. The first question is always going to be

  • around whether the Australian dollar is going to go up. Since have spent the

  • latter part of 2018 fall into two year lows it's a fair point. Major Australian

  • banks are pretty pessimistic about the Aussie going up by the end of 2019. Let's

  • have a look at the three circumstances that would mean it won't change that

  • much. Firstly increased interest rates and easing political risk in the USA

  • would support the US dollar making it harder for the Aussie to strengthen.

  • Secondly if interest rates say the same in Australia which is likely if the

  • economy falters or if inflation only grows slowly, the dollar is again

  • unlikely to rise. Finally if economic growth slows in

  • China it would lower the demands for our

  • commodities and in turn our dollar. The banks aren't saying that all three of

  • these things are going to happen they are just the most likely circumstances

  • that would mean the Aussie wouldn't go up. Now in general there is the

  • perception that a lower dollar is a bad thing and in some ways it can be, but

  • there are also a lot of advantages to having a lower dollar. From a consumer

  • point of view it means it's cheaper to transfer money into the country and it's

  • cheaper to exchange foreign currency into Australian dollars and from a

  • bigger picture point of view it's good for a number of industries. For example

  • it becomes cheaper for foreigners to travel to Australia which is good for

  • tourism and it becomes cheaper to export goods which impacts a number of

  • industries like agriculture and mining.

  • The Australian dollar is generally spoken about in regards to the US dollar

  • but if you're specifically interested in another currency we have you covered.

  • Keep an eye on our channel for videos relating to the Pound, the New Zealand

  • Dollar the Euro and the US dollar.

  • If you have any more questions or thoughts about the Australian Dollar you

  • can leave them in the comments below and if you do need to transfer money

  • overseas or into Australia you can use our comparison table to compare large

  • reputable and secure money transfer companies in one place.

Let's be honest, it would make our lives a lot easier if we could predict the

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2019 Australian Dollar Forecast

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/02/25
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