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  • For most of our history, the human population grew slowly,

  • until new discoveries brought us more food,

  • and made us live longer.

  • In just a hundred years, the human population quadrupled.

  • This led to apocalyptic visions of an overcrowded earth.

  • But the population growth rate actually peaked in the 1960s.

  • Since then, fertility rates have crashed as countries industrialize and develop.

  • The world population is now expected to balance out at around 11 billion by the end of the century.

  • But the big picture conceals the details.

  • Let's look at one region in particular.

  • Sub-Saharan Africa.

  • In 2019, it was home to a billion people living in 46 countries.

  • Although its growth rate has slowed down in the last few decades,

  • it's still much higher than in the rest of the world.

  • While some projections expect around 2.6 billion people,

  • others reckon with up to 5 billion by 2100.

  • Such growth would be a huge challenge for any society.

  • But Sub-Saharan Africa is also the poorest region on earth.

  • So, is Sub-Saharan Africa doomed?

  • And, why did the projections vary by 2.4 billion people?

  • As always, it's complicated.

  • Sub-Saharan Africa is a made-up idea,

  • and in many ways, unhelpful one.

  • Botswana is as far away from Sierra Leone,

  • as Ireland is from Kazakhstan.

  • And they have about as much in common.

  • But without generalizing a little bit,

  • this video would be an hour long!

  • We've also talked to many different scientists for this video,

  • and they disagreed on a lot of things.

  • Mainly, on how much fertility matters to poverty.

  • We've done our best to summarize our research and what they told us,

  • but take it with a grain of salt,

  • and check out our sources when we discussed this in more detail.

  • Okay, let's zoom out to the global perspective again.

  • A few decades ago, many countries in Asia were at a similar point to Sub-Saharan Africa today.

  • Large parts of the population were living in extreme poverty,

  • and birth rates were very high.

  • Take Bangladesh.

  • In the 1960s, the average woman had 7 children in her lifetime.

  • 25% of them died before they turned 5,

  • and of the ones that survived,

  • only one of five would learn to read and write.

  • Life expectancy was about 45,

  • and per capita income was among the lowest in the world.

  • So, beginning in the 1960s,

  • Bangladesh started a family planning program,

  • based on three main pillars.

  • 1. Education helped to change women's outlook.

  • Women with a higher education tend to want fewer kids,

  • and become mothers later in life.

  • 2. Better health care lowered child mortality,

  • leading to parents' wanting fewer children,

  • because they could expect them to survive.

  • 3. Field workers brought contraceptives even to the remotest areas,

  • which drove contraceptive use from 8% in 1975,

  • to 76% in 2019.

  • Together, these measures greatly slowed down population growth.

  • In 1960, the average Bangladeshi women had 7 kids.

  • In 1995, 4,

  • and, in 2019, it was down to 2.

  • This also changed the country's demographics and the economy.

  • Before, many children were born,

  • but died before they got to contribute to society.

  • As far fewer kids die and fewer kids are born, things change.

  • Kids get an education,

  • and turn into productive adults.

  • The government was able to shift some of their resources

  • from lowering child mortality to boosting the economy.

  • By 2024, Bangladesh is expected to graduate from the category of least developed countries

  • to the status of a developing economy.

  • Other Asian countries like South Korea, India, Thailand or the Philippines

  • have gone through a similar process,

  • often even faster.

  • Investment in health and education led to lower birth rates,

  • which changed the composition of the population,

  • and enabled governments to boost the economy.

  • Why didn't the same thing happen everywhere in Sub-Saharan Africa?

  • Africa, as a whole, has made considerable progress with childhood mortality.

  • but especially in Sub-Saharan Africa,

  • education has improved slower than in other parts of the world.

  • And, while in total, contraceptive use has doubled in the region since 1990,

  • the unmet need for modern contraception among adolescents is still at about 60%.

  • The reasons for this are complicated,

  • and it's impossible to give a single answer here.

  • Africa is a big place with diverse cultures and people.

  • But there are a few main factors.

  • Many Sub-Saharan Nations have suffered under colonization until only a few decades ago,

  • and had rough transition periods towards independence.

  • The young nations were often ethnically heterogeneous and lacked unity.

  • Some areas have been repeatedly racked by civil wars,

  • military conflicts or suffered under unstable governments,

  • which made it really hard to expand infrastructure and health care.

  • So, Africa had a worse starting point than Asia.

  • Foreign aid and how it was applied, especially during the cold war,

  • is also a contentious issue.

  • But this topic is too complex to summarize in a few sentences,

  • so we'll make a whole new video about it in the future.

  • And lastly, there are cultural aspects that

  • make talking about family plan in the context of Africa difficult.

  • Critics say that trying to bring fertility down is an intrusion into culture and tradition.

  • But not speaking about an issue will not help solve it.

  • Not all of these things apply to every country in the region.

  • We're talking about 46 countries after all,

  • some of them deeply troubled,

  • others already flourishing,

  • all different and facing unique problems.

  • If population growth continues at its present rate,

  • then Sub-Saharan Africa could grow to more than 4 billion people by 2100.

  • Okay. So, what can be done?

  • Actually, a lot!

  • Especially, investment and aid that helped to build systems for education,

  • family planning, and health care.

  • Surprisingly small changes could have an extreme impact.

  • For example, if women get a better education,

  • and have their first child just two years later in life.

  • This tiny gap between this generation and the next one

  • would lead to 400 million fewer people in 2100,

  • with 3.6 billion in total.

  • If education and family planning are made available to every African women,

  • universal access to contraception makes having kids a decision.

  • If families get to choose how many kids they want,

  • birth projections fall by 30%, to 2.8. billion people.

  • This isn't just theory.

  • There are already examples that are reason for optimism.

  • Ethiopia, the African country with the second-biggest population,

  • has made a lot of progress in a relatively short amount of time.

  • Improving health services lead to a drop in child mortality

  • from 20% to 7% since 1990.

  • And up to 30% of the annual budget was invested in education,

  • and the number of schools increased 25-fold over two decades.

  • So, summarizing,

  • there are serious challenges ahead,

  • but they are far from unsolvable.

  • Sub-Saharan Africa does not need pity or gifts,

  • but attention and fair investment.

  • It's a region rich in resources, culture, and potential.

  • If things go right,

  • we'll see a turn-around similar to the one we've seen across most of Asia

  • in the last 30 years.

  • (quack)

For most of our history, the human population grew slowly,

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