Name: Is A Recession Inevitable?
Uploaded: 2019-10-12T00:16:21.000Z
Duration: 10 min 3 s
Description: Thousands of YouTube videos with English-Chinese subtitles! Now you can learn to understand native speakers, expand your vocabulary, and improve your pronunciation...

The second conditional

If I had to pick up a date for the next recession, it would be

Adverbs of degree

So you can certainly make the case that there's a lot of areas where

The fact of the matter is people are looking and saying, I don't feel

like it's any easier to pay my bills this year than it was last year.

The so-called Great Recession ended more than 10 years ago.

Since then, the United States has been in its longest economic

expansion in history. But good times don't last forever.

We're basically in an industrial recession, a global one.

And it does remind me to 2016 to even '98 where the US was OK,

Understanding how the economy tends to evolve, we would put the

number around maybe 25 to 30 percent chance of a recession over, say,

We have to recognize there's a difference between a slowdown and

recession. We're still not in a recession camp.

Short run economic forecasting is a is a black art.

people who are tracking are feeling moderately depressed right now.

And the markets, the bond market is acting as if there's a pretty

good chance of a recession sometime in the next year or so.

There are all kinds of things that could be going wrong.

Europe may very well actually already be in recession.

We probably are suffering the deflation of the tech bubble.

Corporate debt has gotten, it, I've been saying there's no one thing

this is if we're going to have a recession, it's going gonna be a

smorgasbord recessions, it's going to be no one thing, but just a

bunch of different things. Why all the doom and gloom?

Mainly, it's because the bond market recently flashed warning signs

that a recession could be on the horizon.

manufacturing activity, were also lower than analysts expected.

It's been now quite some time since the 2008 recession, so the US

economy has been growing for 10, 11 years is a very long expansion.

We've seen recently, if you just look at the popular press, a bubble,

I would say in discussion about recessions.

Everyone wants to talk about it. Is there one just around the corner?

The fact that the expansion has lasted so long has no predictive

power whatsoever for whether a recession will start tomorrow.

If I had to pick a date for the next recession it would be sometime

in 2020. We're in a self-reinforcing, virtuous cycle.

Lots of jobs, low unemployment, wage growth is accelerating, that's

supporting more consumer spending, which is causing businesses to

hire, which is pushing unemployment down.

That's pretty hard to break, but it can get broken.

And in my view, that probably would occur in 2020.

So the policies, the economic policies that the administration is

And that's going to become increasingly more obvious as we move

And that's why I think 2020 is the day of reckoning — if there is a

day of reckoning, that's when the economic expansion will end and a

recession will ensue. So let's define a recession.

The official designation of a recession comes from a place called the

It defines a recession as the period between a peak and a trough of

economic activity. The organization doesn't give a set definition of

economic activity, but looks to indicators like domestic production,

President Trump hasn't conquered the business cycle.

And it's hard for the Fed to conquer a business cycle, but they can

at least try to smooth it out as they go through time.

There are some other things outside of the country that could come to

infect us. I'm especially worried about Europe.

I think the European Central Bank has conducted a policy that has

hidden some really bad credits, not just in Italy, but elsewhere.

If I come to you and say I'm going to lend you money and by the way,

I'm going to pay you to take it, you're going to make mistakes.

You're going to stretch out on your risk spectrum and you're going to

make some bad decisions. That's human nature.

It's just human nature. Another commonly accepted definition of a

recession is two consecutive quarters or six months of negative GDP

growth. But not everyone agrees that's the best measure.

And it's not the official marker of a recession.

There are many good reasons to care about GDP, but there's a lot of

other things that real human beings, not just economists, also care

about. The first is think about inequality.

GDP tells us how big the size of the pie is.

It doesn't tell us whether people are getting fair slices.

So we should care about the distribution of income, not just how much

of it there is. GDP only tells us how much of it there is.

GDP tells us about the value of all goods and services bought and

But a lot of really important stuff doesn't happen in markets.

We could double GDP tomorrow, it wouldn't be that hard.

What we do is we'd force everyone to stay at work twice as long.

Force everyone to work twice as many hours, we'll probably get

roughly, maybe a little bit less, but nearly twice as much stuff.

GDP would nearly double, but I reckon people would be miserable.

Subtitles ListPlay Video

Is A Recession Inevitable?

period

force

reinforce

conquer