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  • So we're looking at prime age employment to population ratio for women.

  • Prime age just means that they're of working age.

  • Takes care of education decisions.

  • Takes care of retirement decisions.

  • Employment to population ratio means this is people among that age group who are either looking for work or have work.

  • So this takes care of the problem that you have with the standard unemployment measure, where you're only looking at people who happen to be looking for work right now.

  • So we're looking at this measure for three countries over time.

  • Up here we have Sweden.

  • It's not really fair.

  • They're incredibly enlightened in terms of their family leave policies.

  • They've had them since 1900.

  • They've had maternal and paternal leave since 1974.

  • But we have to have them up there because they are the gold standard for this measure.

  • Then you have the United States.

  • We're going to come back to the US in a second.

  • And then down here at the very beginning, you have Canada.

  • As you can see, these measures change over time.

  • Why is it important to take a look at this?

  • First of all, fairness matters.

  • That is a worthy policy goal.

  • Ok. But also overall, particularly in the United States, the share of workers in prime age overall has been falling.

  • Men have been leaving the workforce for a couple of different reasons.

  • But women have not been replacing them at the same rate that they used to.

  • This is a problem for the United States beyond basic fairness.

  • Because if you have more workers, then your potential GDP is higher.

  • It's not just about fairness, it's also about growth.

  • What affects this measure?

  • Some of it is just cultural.

  • In some countries, it is considered more important for women to stay at home with the children.

  • Very difficult to change culture with policy.

  • It is also cyclical.

  • Right here at the height of the euro crisis and at the tail end of the financial crisis.

  • We see that this measure dropped for all three countries.

  • It dropped more precipitously for the United States, but it dropped everywhere.

  • When there are fewer jobs to be had, people make different decisions about whether they want to be in the workforce or not.

  • But it also can be affected by policy.

  • Policy matters.

  • And we'll show you why.

  • In 2000, the United States was seventh in this measure Prime Age Epop for Women.

  • By 2017, United States was 22nd.

  • So something happened.

  • Let's take Canada as an example.

  • In 2001, they changed their family leave policy.

  • So it used to be that women could get 10 weeks off after having a child.

  • After 2001, that was extended to 35 weeks, and it applied to women and men.

  • You can see the difference right here.

  • So there are a couple of other policy measures that will make a difference in Prime Age Epop for Women.

  • So leave policies make a difference.

  • Also, about a third of the countries in the OECD offer the right to negotiate for part-time work.

  • If you can work part time when you have young children, it makes the decision to stay in the workforce a lot easier.

  • Also, the United States spends about a quarter of the OECD average on support for childcare.

  • Obviously, this is incredibly important as well.

  • If the feds are helping you take care of your kids during the day, it definitely changes the decision on childcare.

  • So this measure, working age women in the workforce, is cultural, it is cyclical, but it is also fixable.

  • Disclosure, I have four kids and I have a wife who works and has much nicer hair than what I've drawn here.

  • So I'm invested in this policy outcome.

So we're looking at prime age employment to population ratio for women.

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