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  • As China's economic growth slows, people are looking for the next big driver of growth.

  • And India seems to fit the bill.

  • The IMF estimates that India will be the fastest- growing major economy in the world this year,

  • which is why companies like Walmart are paying top dollar for business deals in India.

  • It's projected to expand by 7.4%, putting it ahead of China.

  • So, what's driving India's growth?

  • India has a population of 1.3 billion, making it the second most populous country in the world.

  • It's on track to grow faster, even surpassing China's population by 2024.

  • And that big population is also really young.

  • India is on track to reap a handsome demographic dividend.

  • This effect happens when a country's working age population

  • is larger than the non-working age population.

  • By 2050, India is expected to have a working population of more than one billion.

  • While many Asian countries are aging, India's population has a median age

  • of only 27.3 years, compared to China's 37.6 and Japan's 47.1.

  • Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came into power in 2014,

  • his government has attracted record foreign direct investment.

  • Modi has been credited for his strong reform agenda to improve India's business environment.

  • The World Bank gave a nod to his efforts, improving India's ranking

  • in its Ease of Doing Business ranking from 130 to 100.

  • But India's growth is like my cricket gamefull of promise, but it hasn't quite delivered yet.

  • India grew faster than China between 2014 and 2016,

  • but lost its fastest-growing major economy title last year.

  • Within the country, domestic investment has fallen as businesses have been hesitant to invest.

  • India's exports have also dropped since Modi came into power, despite his

  • Made in India campaign meant to fire up the country's manufacturing industry.

  • Economists say that domestic developments are to blame.

  • In November 2016, the government's withdrawal of 500 and 1,000 rupee notes shocked the country.

  • 86% of the country's currency could no longer be used in shops.

  • Then, while businesses were trying to recover from that policy,

  • the government implemented the goods and services tax in July 2017.

  • It's the biggest tax reform since India's independence,

  • consolidating India's many taxes into a single structure.

  • But it's also baffling businesses.

  • For instance, should coconut oil be taxed as a cooking product, or a hair product?

  • Is a chocolate coated biscuit a chocolate or a biscuit?

  • The two policies on tax and demonetization hit consumption and investment hard,

  • despite most economists agreeing that the goods and services tax

  • will bring long-term benefits for India.

  • This year, India is likely to keep its title as the world's fastest growing major economy.

  • But is fastest fast enough?

  • Former IMF chief economist and India's former central bank governor,

  • Raghuram Rajan has said that India needs to grow much faster.

  • India has about one million people entering the labor force every month.

  • So that's a big number that has to be absorbed which means we need

  • significantly more growth to get them good jobs.

  • But India's growth this year faces serious challenges.

  • Top ratings agencies like Moody's and Goldman Sachs

  • have cut their growth projections for India.

  • Why is that?

  • One reason is rising oil prices.

  • That could mean higher import costs and higher inflation.

  • India is the world's third biggest oil consumer, after China and the United States.

  • Because of low oil prices, which fell to about $40 per barrel in 2016,

  • Modi's government could put taxes on petrol and diesel.

  • India has become dependant on these taxes,

  • which made up 17% of India's total revenue last year.

  • The Indian rupee is also the worst performing currency in Asia this year,

  • and it's expected to weaken further.

  • This may look like just a humble pakora, but this Indian street snack

  • has ignited a huge debate about jobs in India.

  • This year, Modi was asked about the perception that he failed to create more jobs for young Indians.

  • His response?

  • "Official statistics do not capture the true number of people working."

  • Such as pakora sellers.

  • His comments caused outrage in India, because there is a lot of anxiety for stable, salaried jobs.

  • More than 25 million people, a number greater than Australia's population,

  • applied for less than 90,000 jobs on India's state-run railways.

  • For the most junior role in Mumbai police force,

  • 200,000 people applied for 1,137 openings.

  • Many multi-national companies are excited about India, dreaming about

  • selling fast food, smartphones and fast fashion to a rapidly growing middle class.

  • But right now, that middle class with income levels of similar populations in cities like

  • Hong Kong and Singapore is extremely tiny, estimated to be just about 1% of India's population.

  • The double whammy of a weaker currency and growing oil prices are going to hit India hard.

  • Despite its challenges, India continues to grow quickly.

  • But will it be it fast enough to benefit its people?

  • Hey everyone, it's Xin En. Thanks for watching!

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As China's economic growth slows, people are looking for the next big driver of growth.

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