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  • I'm going to talk about your mindset.

  • Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?

  • (Laughter)

  • If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?

  • When I talk to my students about global issues,

  • and I listen to them in the coffee break,

  • they always talk about "we" and "them."

  • And when they come back into the lecture room

  • I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"?

  • "Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say.

  • "We learned it in college."

  • And what is the definition then? "The definition?

  • Everyone knows," they say.

  • But then you know, I press them like this.

  • So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy.

  • Western world is a long life in a small family.

  • Developing world is a short life in a large family."

  • And I like that definition, because it enabled me

  • to transfer their mindset

  • into the dataset.

  • And here you have the dataset.

  • So, you can see that what we have on this axis here

  • is size of family. One, two, three, four, five

  • children per woman on this axis.

  • And here, length of life, life expectancy,

  • 30, 40, 50.

  • Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.

  • And really this is about the bedroom.

  • Whether the man and woman decide to have small family,

  • and take care of their kids, and how long they will live.

  • It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know,

  • you can live long.

  • And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted --

  • the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here,

  • which had large families and short life. Developing world.

  • And we had one set of countries up there

  • which was the western world.

  • They had small families and long life.

  • And you are going to see here

  • the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime.

  • Then the developing countries applied

  • soap and water, vaccination.

  • And all the developing world started to apply family planning.

  • And partly to USA who help to provide

  • technical advice and investment.

  • And you see all the world moves over to a two child family,

  • and a life with 60 to 70 years.

  • But some countries remain back in this area here.

  • And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here.

  • We have Liberia. We have Congo.

  • So we have countries living there.

  • So the problem I had

  • is that the worldview that my students had

  • corresponds to reality in the world

  • the year their teachers were born.

  • (Laughter)

  • (Applause)

  • And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world.

  • I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week,

  • and I could see the wrong concept

  • even active people in United States had,

  • that they didn't realize the improvement

  • of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States.

  • Look here when I move them forward.

  • Here we go.

  • They catch up. There's Mexico.

  • It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions.

  • There was less than five percent

  • of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this.

  • This great nation, Mexico,

  • has the problem that arms are coming from North,

  • across the borders, so they had to stop that,

  • because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.

  • But if I would change this axis here,

  • I would instead put income per person.

  • Income per person. I can put that here.

  • And we will then see

  • a completely different picture.

  • By the way, I'm teaching you

  • how to use our website, Gapminder World,

  • while I'm correcting this,

  • because this is a free utility on the net.

  • And when I now finally got it right,

  • I can go back 200 years in history.

  • And I can find United States up there.

  • And I can let the other countries be shown.

  • And now I have income per person on this axis.

  • And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time.

  • And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years,

  • on par with Afghanistan today.

  • And what has happened in the world, I will show now.

  • This is instead of studying history

  • for one year at university.

  • You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing.

  • (Laughter)

  • You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe,

  • and the yellow one, which is the United States,

  • they get richer and richer and also

  • start to get healthier and healthier.

  • And this is now 100 years ago,

  • where the rest of the world remains behind.

  • Here we come. And that was the influenza.

  • That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it?

  • It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy.

  • And then we come up. Not until

  • independence started.

  • Look here You have China over there,

  • you have India over there,

  • and this is what has happened.

  • Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there?

  • Mexico is not at all on par with the United States,

  • but they are quite close.

  • And especially, it's interesting to see

  • China and the United States

  • during 200 years,

  • because I have my oldest son now working for Google,

  • after Google acquired this software.

  • Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet

  • for many years and developed this.

  • And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing.

  • So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know?

  • And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing,

  • in China, he got a long-term perspective.

  • Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google,

  • he should develop by quarter, or by half-year.

  • Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.

  • But in China they look generation after generation

  • because they remember

  • the very embarrassing period, for 100 years,

  • when they went backwards.

  • And then they would remember the first part

  • of last century, which was really bad,

  • and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward.

  • But this was 1963.

  • Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China,

  • and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started

  • this amazing move forward.

  • Isn't it strange to see that the United States

  • first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich?

  • Whereas China could get healthy much earlier,

  • because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition,

  • and then also benefits of penicillin

  • and vaccines and family planning.

  • And Asia could have social development

  • before they got the economic development.

  • So to me, as a public health professor,

  • it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.

  • Because what you see here, what you see here

  • is the flat world of Thomas Friedman,

  • isn't it.

  • It's not really, really flat.

  • But the middle income countries --

  • and this is where I suggest to my students,

  • stop using the concept "developing world."

  • Because after all, talking about the developing world

  • is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.

  • The last chapter is about present, and president Obama,

  • and the other is about the past,

  • where you cover everything from Washington

  • to Eisenhower.

  • Because Washington to Eisenhower,

  • that is what we find in the developing world.

  • We could actually go to Mayflower

  • to Eisenhower,

  • and that would be put together into a developing world,

  • which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way,

  • which have great entrepreneurs,

  • but also have the collapsing countries.

  • So, how could we make better sense about this?

  • Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could

  • look at income distribution.

  • This is the income distribution of peoples in the world,

  • from $1. This is where you have food to eat.

  • These people go to bed hungry.

  • And this is the number of people.

  • This is $10, whether you have a public or a private

  • health service system. This is where you can

  • provide health service for your family and school for your children,

  • and this is OECD countries:

  • Green, Latin America, East Europe.

  • This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.

  • And this is how the world changed.

  • It changed like this.

  • Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions

  • and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia?

  • And it goes over here?

  • And I come now, into projections,

  • but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because --

  • (Laughter)

  • that's where the projections are not valid any longer.

  • Probably the world will do this.

  • and then it will continue forward like this.

  • But more or less, this is what will happen,

  • and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.

  • We have the high income countries here,

  • with the United States as a leading power;

  • we have the emerging economies in the middle,

  • which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout;

  • and we have the low income countries here.

  • Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes,

  • they have been saving, you know, over the last decade.

  • And here we have the low income countries

  • where entrepreneurs are.

  • And here we have the countries in collapse and war,

  • like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur.

  • We have all this at the same time.

  • That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened

  • in the developing world.

  • Because it's so different, what has happened there.

  • And that's why I suggest

  • a slightly different approach of what you would call it.

  • And you have huge differences within countries also.

  • I heard that your departments here were by regions.

  • Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia,

  • East Asia, Arab states,

  • East Europe, Latin America, and OECD.

  • And on this axis, GDP.

  • And on this, heath, child survival,

  • and it doesn't come as a surprise

  • that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.

  • But when I split it, when I split it

  • into country bubbles,

  • the size of the bubbles here is the population.

  • Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different.

  • There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa.

  • And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian,

  • Arab world.

  • Now all your different departments.

  • East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries.

  • And here were are. We have a continuum in the world.

  • We cannot put it into two parts.

  • It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here,

  • building, building countries.

  • It's Lincoln here, advancing them.

  • It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries.

  • And then it's United States today, up here.

  • And we have countries all this way.

  • Now, this is the important thing

  • of understanding how the world has changed.

  • At this point I decided to make a pause.

  • (Laughter)

  • And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world,

  • to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers,

  • for Demographic Health Survey.

  • Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke.

  • This is very serious.

  • It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring

  • during 25 years of the very good methodology

  • for measuring child mortality

  • that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world.

  • (Applause)

  • And it is U.S. government at its best,

  • without advocacy, providing facts,

  • that it's useful for the society.

  • And providing data free of charge

  • on the internet, for the