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  • I told you three things last year.

  • I told you that the statistics of the world

  • have not been made properly available.

  • Because of that, we still have the old mindset

  • of developing in industrialized countries, which is wrong.

  • And that animated graphics can make a difference.

  • Things are changing

  • and today, on the United Nations Statistic Division Home Page,

  • it says, by first of May, full access to the databases.

  • (Applause)

  • And if I could share the image with you on the screen.

  • So three things have happened.

  • U.N. opened their statistic databases,

  • and we have a new version of the software

  • up working as a beta on the net,

  • so you don't have to download it any longer.

  • And let me repeat what you saw last year.

  • The bubbles are the countries.

  • Here you have the fertility rate -- the number of children per woman --

  • and there you have the length of life in years.

  • This is 1950 -- those were the industrialized countries,

  • those were developing countries.

  • At that time there was a "we" and "them."

  • There was a huge difference in the world.

  • But then it changed, and it went on quite well.

  • And this is what happens.

  • You can see how China is the red, big bubble.

  • The blue there is India.

  • And they go over all this -- I'm going to try to be

  • a little more serious this year in showing you

  • how things really changed.

  • And it's Africa that stands out as the problem down here, doesn't it?

  • Large families still, and the HIV epidemic

  • brought down the countries like this.

  • This is more or less what we saw last year,

  • and this is how it will go on into the future.

  • And I will talk on, is this possible?

  • Because you see now, I presented statistics that don't exist.

  • Because this is where we are.

  • Will it be possible that this will happen?

  • I cover my lifetime here, you know?

  • I expect to live 100 years.

  • And this is where we are today.

  • Now could we look here instead at the economic situation in the world?

  • And I would like to show that against child survival.

  • We'll swap the axis.

  • Here you have child mortality -- that is, survival --

  • four kids dying there, 200 dying there.

  • And this is GDP per capita on this axis.

  • And this was 2007.

  • And if I go back in time, I've added some historical statistics --

  • here we go, here we go, here we go -- not so much statistics 100 years ago.

  • Some countries still had statistics.

  • We are looking down in the archive,

  • and when we are down into 1820,

  • there is only Austria and Sweden that can produce numbers.

  • (Laughter)

  • But they were down here. They had 1,000 dollars per person per year.

  • And they lost one-fifth of their kids before their first birthday.

  • So this is what happens in the world, if we play the entire world.

  • How they got slowly richer and richer,

  • and they add statistics.

  • Isn't it beautiful when they get statistics?

  • You see the importance of that?

  • And here, children don't live longer.

  • The last century, 1870, was bad for the kids in Europe,

  • because most of this statistics is Europe.

  • It was only by the turn of the century

  • that more than 90 percent of the children survived their first year.

  • This is India coming up, with the first data from India.

  • And this is the United States moving away here, earning more money.

  • And we will soon see China coming up in the very far end corner here.

  • And it moves up with Mao Tse-Tung getting health,

  • not getting so rich.

  • There he died, then Deng Xiaoping brings money.

  • It moves this way over here.

  • And the bubbles keep moving up there,

  • and this is what the world looks like today.

  • (Applause)

  • Let us have a look at the United States.

  • We have a function here -- I can tell the world, "Stay where you are."

  • And I take the United States -- we still want to see the background --

  • I put them up like this, and now we go backwards.

  • And we can see that the United States

  • goes to the right of the mainstream.

  • They are on the money side all the time.

  • And down in 1915, the United States was a neighbor of India --

  • present, contemporary India.

  • And that means United States was richer,

  • but lost more kids than India is doing today, proportionally.

  • And look here -- compare to the Philippines of today.

  • The Philippines of today has almost the same economy

  • as the United States during the First World War.

  • But we have to bring United States forward quite a while

  • to find the same health of the United States

  • as we have in the Philippines.

  • About 1957 here, the health of the United States

  • is the same as the Philippines.

  • And this is the drama of this world which many call globalized,

  • is that Asia, Arabic countries, Latin America,

  • are much more ahead in being healthy, educated,

  • having human resources than they are economically.

  • There's a discrepancy in what's happening today

  • in the emerging economies.

  • There now, social benefits, social progress,

  • are going ahead of economical progress.

  • And 1957 -- the United States had the same economy as Chile has today.

  • And how long do we have to bring United States

  • to get the same health as Chile has today?

  • I think we have to go, there -- we have 2001, or 2002 --

  • the United States has the same health as Chile.

  • Chile's catching up!

  • Within some years Chile may have better child survival

  • than the United States.

  • This is really a change, that you have this lag

  • of more or less 30, 40 years' difference on the health.

  • And behind the health is the educational level.

  • And there's a lot of infrastructure things,

  • and general human resources are there.

  • Now we can take away this --

  • and I would like to show you the rate of speed,

  • the rate of change, how fast they have gone.

  • And we go back to 1920, and I want to look at Japan.

  • And I want to look at Sweden and the United States.

  • And I'm going to stage a race here

  • between this sort of yellowish Ford here

  • and the red Toyota down there,

  • and the brownish Volvo.

  • (Laughter)

  • And here we go. Here we go.

  • The Toyota has a very bad start down here, you can see,

  • and the United States Ford is going off-road there.

  • And the Volvo is doing quite fine.

  • This is the war. The Toyota got off track, and now

  • the Toyota is coming on the healthier side of Sweden --

  • can you see that?

  • And they are taking over Sweden,

  • and they are now healthier than Sweden.

  • That's the part where I sold the Volvo and bought the Toyota.

  • (Laughter)

  • And now we can see that the rate of change was enormous in Japan.

  • They really caught up.

  • And this changes gradually.

  • We have to look over generations to understand it.

  • And let me show you my own sort of family history --

  • we made these graphs here.

  • And this is the same thing, money down there, and health, you know?

  • And this is my family.

  • This is Sweden, 1830, when my great-great-grandma was born.

  • Sweden was like Sierra Leone today.

  • And this is when great-grandma was born, 1863.

  • And Sweden was like Mozambique.

  • And this is when my grandma was born, 1891.

  • She took care of me as a child,

  • so I'm not talking about statistic now --

  • now it's oral history in my family.

  • That's when I believe statistics,

  • when it's grandma-verified statistics.

  • (Laughter)

  • I think it's the best way of verifying historical statistics.

  • Sweden was like Ghana.

  • It's interesting to see the enormous diversity

  • within sub-Saharan Africa.

  • I told you last year, I'll tell you again,

  • my mother was born in Egypt, and I -- who am I?

  • I'm the Mexican in the family.

  • And my daughter, she was born in Chile,

  • and the grand-daughter was born in Singapore,

  • now the healthiest country on this Earth.

  • It bypassed Sweden about two to three years ago,

  • with better child survival.

  • But they're very small, you know?

  • They're so close to the hospital we can never

  • beat them out in these forests.

  • (Laughter)

  • But homage to Singapore.

  • Singapore is the best one.

  • Now this looks also like a very good story.

  • But it's not really that easy, that it's all a good story.

  • Because I have to show you one of the other facilities.

  • We can also make the color here represent the variable --

  • and what am I choosing here?

  • Carbon-dioxide emission, metric ton per capita.

  • This is 1962, and United States was emitting 16 tons per person.

  • And China was emitting 0.6,

  • and India was emitting 0.32 tons per capita.

  • And what happens when we moved on?

  • Well, you see the nice story of getting richer

  • and getting healthier --

  • everyone did it at the cost of emission of carbon dioxide.

  • There is no one who has done it so far.

  • And we don't have all the updated data

  • any longer, because this is really hot data today.

  • And there we are, 2001.

  • And in the discussion I attended with global leaders, you know,

  • many say now the problem is that the emerging economies,

  • they are getting out too much carbon dioxide.

  • The Minister of the Environment of India said,

  • "Well, you were the one who caused the problem."

  • The OECD countries -- the high-income countries --

  • they were the ones who caused the climate change.

  • "But we forgive you, because you didn't know it.

  • But from now on, we count per capita.

  • From now on we count per capita.

  • And everyone is responsible for the per capita emission."

  • This really shows you, we have not seen good economic

  • and health progress anywhere in the world

  • without destroying the climate.

  • And this is really what has to be changed.

  • I've been criticized for showing you a too positive image of the world,

  • but I don't think it's like this.

  • The world is quite a messy place.

  • This we can call Dollar Street.

  • Everyone lives on this street here.

  • What they earn here -- what number they live on --

  • is how much they earn per day.

  • This family earns about one dollar per day.

  • We drive up the street here,

  • we find a family here which earns about two to three dollars a day.

  • And we drive away here -- we find the first garden in the street,

  • and they earn 10 to 50 dollars a day.

  • And how do they live?

  • If we look at the bed here, we can see

  • that they sleep on a rug on the floor.

  • This is what poverty line is --

  • 80 percent of the family income is just to cover the energy needs,

  • the food for the day.

  • This is two to five dollars. You have a bed.

  • And here it's a much nicer bedroom, you can see.

  • I lectured on this for Ikea, and they wanted to see

  • the sofa immediately here.

  • (Laughter)

  • And this is the sofa, how it will emerge from there.

  • And the interesting thing, when you go around here in the photo panorama,

  • you see the family still sitting on the floor there.

  • Although there is a sofa,

  • if you watch in the kitchen, you can see that

  • the great difference for women does not come between one to 10 dollars.

  • It comes beyond here, when you really can get

  • good working conditions in the family.

  • And if you really want to see the difference,

  • you look at the toilet over here.

  • This can change. This can change.

  • These are all pictures and images from Africa,

  • and it can become much better.

  • We can get out of poverty.

  • My own research has not been in IT or anything like this.

  • I spent 20 years in interviews with African farmers

  • who were on the verge of famine.

  • And this is the result of the farmers-needs research.

  • The nice thing here is that you can't see

  • who are the researchers in this picture.

  • That's when research functions in poor societies --