Since the global financial crisis, the US Fed , the European Central Bank,

the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England have printed money,

and bought assets worth $12 trillion dollars.

That's huge and unprecedented.

Can we return monetary policy to something like normal?

With interest rates closer to 5%, rather than 0.

And central bank balance shrank back to about $3 trillion dollars.

The short answer is: not in the near future.

The US Fed has come closest to the great unwind.

It plans to shrink its balance sheet later this year.

This will probably start in the autumn with a monthly reduction

in the assets held by the central bank of $6 billion dollars,

rising gradually to a maximum of $30 billion dollars a month.

Compared with the $4.5 trillion dollars it holds,

this is just dipping its toe in the water.

No other major central bank is anywhere near.

Those in the Eurozone and the Bank of Japan are still printing money

and buying more assets.

The Bank of England faces huge resident certainties.

And all the while, interest rates will remain very low.

Partly because aging populations, low productivity growth,

and a saving glut have reduced the attractiveness of capital spending,

lower interest rate and needed to balance desired savings

and desired investment.

Partly because of public and private debt burdens have risen so far,

borrowers will struggle to cope with more expensive money.

So monetary policy isn't going anywhere fast.