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  • It is never fun to arrive at a party to discover that it has already ended.

  • Excited investors who have been looking to a wager on the rebound in the US energy sector may start to feel a little bit deflated

  • when they check the share prices of the once bombed-out oil services companies.

  • Shares in Halliburton have almost doubled over the last 12 months as higher oil has,

  • in the words of Halliburton's chief executive this week, meant that the animal spirits have broken free and they are running.

  • But for those who feel left behind, there is still a bit of hope,

  • but it will require digging around some of the more obscure parts of the US stock market.

  • A number of smaller American oil services companies entered into chapter 11 bankruptcy over the last three years,

  • having run up too much debt when the energy market took a tumble.

  • Some of these are now quietly re-emerging from bankruptcy and relisting on the New York Stock Exchange, having re-structured their debts.

  • They're barely followed by any Wall Street analyst and they trade at the deep discounts to peers,

  • and in some ways can be seen to offer a way to bet on the recovery in US domestic drilling

  • whilst avoiding being swept up in the irrational exuberance on display in the wider oil services sector.

  • One of these companies, which is the Huston-based Key Energy, entered into chapter 11 in October,

  • and re-emerged from the process just over a month ago.

  • It was one of the largest US onshore, rig-based well services companies,

  • And Key's re-structuring involved all about wiping out the shareholders and slashing its net debt, from a previous 868 million dollars to now 142 million dollars.

  • Since getting out of chapter 11 in mid-December, its equity has traded at a total value of around 700 million dollars,

  • giving it an enterprise value of 840 million dollars.

  • If Key Energy Services business recovers to anywhere near where it was before the oil slump,

  • so for example in 2012, it made over 400 million dollars and earnings before interest taxation depreciation and amortization,

  • then, that would imply the share's trade today on an implied future enterprise value over EBITDA of just about two times.

  • So if you then assign Key a fairly conservative multiple of five times EBITDA , we have to remember that Halliburton, a far far larger peer,

  • trades on a two year forward multiple of 10 times, so more than double, then Key share price more than doubles itself.

  • A return like that would certainly help ease any disappointment at missing out on last year's recovery.

It is never fun to arrive at a party to discover that it has already ended.

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