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  • STOCKS CLOSING LOWER,

  • SLIPPING FROM ALL-TIME HIGHS.

  • JOE: "WHAT'D YOU MISS?"

  • THE TAKE ON THE

  • ELECTION, FISCAL STIMULUS, AND

  • THE FED'S NEXT MOVE.

  • WAYS IN ON MAGNUS

  • THE ECONOMY AND TRADE AFTER THE

  • BREXIT VOTE.

  • WASHINGTONPDATE FROM

  • , GOING DARK IN COLORADO AND

  • PENNSYLVANIA.

  • SCARLET: WE BEGIN WITH MARKET

  • MINUTES.

  • STOCKS RETREATING FROM RECORD

  • HIGHS.

  • HOUSING STARTS BEAT ESTIMATES,

  • , BUT ITER THAN EXPECTED

  • IS THE COMMENTARY FROM FED

  • OFFICIALS THAT MAY HAVE CHANGED

  • THE TONE IN THE MARKET.

  • JOE: SOME OF THOSE SAFETY YIELD

  • PLACE LEADING THE WAY DOWN

  • TODAY.

  • OLIVER: I'M GOING TO START WITH

  • THAT.

  • TO EMERGE,LEAR STORY

  • LOSSES IN UTILITIES AND

  • TELECOMMUNICATIONS STOCKS.

  • GROUPS THAT HAD

  • SUPPORTED THE MARKET FOR SO

  • LONG.

  • WHEN THE EXPECTATION FOR

  • RATE HIKES ARE NOT CHANGING TOO

  • MUCH, WE SAW A BUMP UP IN NEXT

  • BREAK, BUT NOT A HUGE AMOUNT.

  • LOOK AT THE HEALTH CARE SECTOR,

  • , ONLY FOR STOCKS IN

  • THE INDEX WERE OF, MANY LOSING

  • 2%.

  • OIL VERSUS THE ENERGY STOCK

  • INDEX, A BIT OF DIVERSIONS.

  • -- OF DIVERGENCE.

  • TWO HAVEEE WHERE THE

  • SEPARATED, A BIG JUMP IN OIL

  • TODAY, NOT QUITE AS BIG IN THE

  • ENERGY STOCKS, PRETTY FLAT

  • DESPITE THE GAINS.

  • ON THE GOVERNMENT BOND

  • MARKET FRONT, THE SPREAD TO

  • BETWEEN THE TWO-YEAR AND THE 10

  • YEAR, DROPPING A LITTLE BIT.

  • SOME INTERESTING STUFF WITH THAT

  • PRINT,Y WEAKER CPI

  • CAUSING SOME FLATTENING, THEN

  • THE FEDS DUDLEY CAME OUT AND

  • SAID A SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE IS

  • STILL ON THE TABLE.

  • DIP WAS THE KEY EVENT OF

  • THE DAY.

  • SCARLET: THE YEN STRENGTHENING

  • PAST 100 FOR THE FIRST TIME

  • BREXIT.AGG SAID --

  • AS JOE MENTIONED, LOTS OF

  • QUESTIONS OVER WHAT THE FED DOES

  • NEXT, WITH THE BOJ DOES NEXT,

  • WHEN IT COMES TO MONETARY

  • POLICY.

  • POUND RECOVERING FROM A

  • ONE-MONTH LOW.

  • YOU CAN SEE THE SLIGHT MOVE

  • HIGHER.

  • THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN

  • CONSUMER PRICES, AND WHAT

  • INTERPRETATION THE IS THAT THERE

  • IS LESS JUSTIFICATION FOR THE

  • BOE TO EASE.

  • CHANGE.A CHART OF DAILY

  • BIG OUTFLOWS ON FRIDAY,

  • SIGNS THE ENTHUSIASM FOR GOLD IS

  • FIZZLING.

  • WE HAVE SEEN A BIG RALLY AND

  • OIL LATELY.

  • NEARLY 2% TODAY.

  • THAT CHART EXPLAINS A LOT.

  • SCARLET: THOSE ARE TODAY'S

  • MARKET MINUTES.

  • JOINS US NOW.MAN

  • QUOTE AND GET A

  • RIGHT INTO THE BIGGEST STORY IN

  • THE WORLD, THE ELECTION, WHAT IT

  • MEANS FOR THE ECONOMY, DONALD

  • TRUMP WAS RECENTLY QUOTED IN AN

  • ARTICLE IN THE NEW YORK TIMES.

  • WE HAVE THE QUOTE HERE.

  • IF WE CAN BRING IT UP, THIS IS

  • IT.

  • SAYING WE NEEDY

  • TO SPEND MORE.

  • POP. CALLED PRIMING THE PROMPT

  • TO SOMETIMES YOU HAVE TO DO THAT

  • A LITTLE BIT TO GET THINGS

  • GOING.

  • WE HAVE NO CHOICE -- OTHERWISE,

  • WE ARE GOING TO DIE ON THE VINE.

  • THIS, HE IS RIGHT.

  • IT IS PRETTY MUCH BY ACCIDENT.

  • IT IS TRUE.

  • I THINK I UNDERSTAND.

  • MY STRONG GUESS IS THAT

  • HILLARY'S ECONOMIC ADVISERS

  • WOULD LIKE TO PROPOSE MORE

  • DEFICIT SPENDING, BUT THEY

  • FIGURE IT IS PROBABLY NOT A GOOD

  • THING TO SAY BECAUSE THE PUBLIC

  • DOES NOT LIKE THAT, AND SO SHE

  • IS BEING CAUTIOUS.

  • SPENDING,FRASTRUCTURE

  • WE NEED MORE.

  • >> HOW DO YOU COME TO THIS

  • HE CAME TO THIS

  • WITHOUT THE RIGHT REASONS?

  • ECONOMICS, HE HATES CHINA

  • AND TRADE.

  • EVERYTHING ELSE, HE IS FOR TAX

  • CUTS FOR THE RICH, INCREASES FOR

  • THE RICH, HE IS ON ALL SIDES OF

  • IT.

  • THIS WEEK, HE IS SAYING THAT'S

  • WHAT HE WANTS TO DO, BUT THERE

  • IS NO ACTUAL PLAN.

  • WHAT DOES HIS HISTORY

  • OF BORROWING AND SPENDING TO

  • BUILD HIS EMPIRE TELL YOU ABOUT

  • HOW HE WOULD APPROACH THE

  • NATIONAL ECONOMY?

  • >> WE HAVE THIS ILLUSION THAT

  • BUSINESS EXPERIENCE HAS A LOT TO

  • POLICY,RUNNING ECONOMIC

  • BUT THEY ARE BOTH DIFFERENT

  • DOMAINS.

  • IT DOESN'T TELL US MUCH ABOUT

  • WHAT HE WOULD DO.

  • AND PARTICULAR, THE TRUMP STYLE,

  • BAR A LOT OF MONEY, THEN WALK

  • AWAY FROM IT.

  • THAT ISN'T GOING TO WORK FOR THE

  • UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, SO NOT

  • USEFUL.

  • OF WHETHER HES

  • STUMBLED INTO THIS BY ACCIDENT,

  • HIS ECONOMIC VIEWPOINT DOES NOT

  • SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH THE

  • CLASSIC AM CONSERVATIVE,

  • REPUBLICAN VIEWS WE HAVE HEARD

  • LATELY.

  • REASON ISU THINK THE

  • THAT YOU HAVE CONSERVATIVE

  • VOICES GETTING BEHIND HIM.

  • SUSPECTS.AL

  • THE SAME OLD GANG.

  • THEY ARE MAKING A JUDGMENT THAT

  • WHAT HE WOULD ACTUALLY DO ARE

  • THE ONES THEY WANT.

  • ALSO, THEIR THING HAS ALWAYS

  • BEEN LET'S BE WHERE POWER IS,

  • AND THEY THINK THIS IS THEIR

  • BEST CHANCE.

  • OBVIOUSLY THERE WILL BE NO ROOM

  • FOR THEM, NO ONE WILL BE

  • LISTENING TO THEM IF HILLARY

  • CLINTON WINS.

  • THE IMPORTANT THING IS THEY

  • NEVER REALLY CARED ABOUT

  • DEFICITS.

  • EXCEPT WITH WHICH A STICK TO

  • BEAT PRESIDENT OBAMA.

  • CAMPAIGN RHETORIC.

  • WHAT THEY DO BELIEVE IN OUR TAX

  • CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY, AND TRUMP

  • IS PROMISING THAT.

  • HAS HIS BACKGROUND, BUT HE'S

  • WHONG TO TARGET AMERICANS

  • ARE LOOKING TO HIM TO BRING THEM

  • UP.

  • , CHIP THAT ECONOMIC MALAISE IN

  • THE U.S. IS CONTRIBUTING TO HIS

  • SUPPORT BASE?

  • -- HOW MUCH IS THAT ECONOMIC

  • MALAISE IN THE U.S. CONTRIBUTING

  • TO HIS SUPPORT BASE?

  • >> ECONOMIC ANXIETY IS NOT A

  • AOD PREDICT OR OF WHO IS

  • TRUMP SUPPORTER.

  • MAYBE IF THE COUNTRY WAS

  • LOOMING, WAGES RISING, AND

  • MANUFACTURING STRONG, ALL OF

  • THAT ANXIETY WOULD BE ON HOLD,

  • BUT I'M NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THAT.

  • THE IDEA THAT THIS IS WHAT IT IS

  • ABOUT.

  • TRADE, ALL OF

  • THESE SUBTERRANEAN AND PULSES

  • DRIVING THE REPUBLICAN VOTE ARE

  • NOW COMING TO THE SURFACE.

  • TALK ABOUTT'S

  • HILLARY CLINTON.

  • YOU HAVE WRITTEN THAT HER VISION

  • IS NOTABLE FOR ITS LACK OF

  • OUTLANDISH ASSUMPTIONS.

  • SHE IS NOT JUSTIFYING HER

  • PROPOSALS THAT THEY WOULD CAUSE

  • A RADICAL QUICKENING OF THE U.S.

  • ECONOMY.

  • STRENGTHENING THE SOCIAL

  • SECURITY SAFETY NET BY TAXING

  • HIGH-INCOME EARNERS.

  • IT IS CENTER-LEFT GOVERNANCE,

  • AN OBAMA THIRD TERM.

  • A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE ORBIT

  • THINK THAT CLINTON-TYPE POLICY

  • WITH MORE INFRASTRUCTURE

  • SPENDING MIGHT HAVE A BIGGER

  • IMPACT ON GROWTH THAN SHE IS

  • WILLING TO ASSUME.

  • ASSUMINGSENTIALLY

  • NOTHING IN TERMS OF GROWTH

  • IMPACT, BUT THEY ARE NOT WILLING

  • TO BET THE FARM ON IT.

  • OFIS PARTLY A QUESTION

  • WHETHER WE WILL SEE MORE.

  • ARE SIGNIFICANT TAX

  • INCREASES AT THE TOP END, FAIRLY

  • SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONS TO

  • ITMACARE, SO IT'S NOT THAT

  • IS MINOR, BUT IT IS A

  • CONTINUATION OF THE SAME KIND OF

  • GOVERNANCE WE HAVE HAD.

  • FISCAL THE TIME FOR

  • STIMULUS OVER?

  • 2-3 YEARS AGO, THE U.S.

  • ECONOMY WAS WELL BELOW CAPACITY.

  • THE FED WAS NOT THAT EFFECTIVE.

  • QUANTITATIVE EASING IS MARGINAL

  • TOOL AT BEST.

  • NOW THE ECONOMY MIGHT BE AT FULL

  • EMPLOYMENT, BUT WE DON'T KNOW

  • THAT.

  • SUPPOSE THERE IS TROUBLE IN

  • EUROPE OR CHINA.

  • SUPPOSE THERE ARE MORE PROBLEMS

  • OUT OF HOUSING.

  • WE HAVE VERY LITTLE ROOM TO

  • MANEUVER.

  • THE FED CAN'T DO MUCH MORE THAN

  • IT IS DOING.

  • FISCAL POLICY WOULD BE USEFUL AS

  • INSURANCE, AN ADDITIONAL SORT OF

  • DEMAND, AND WE KNOW IT CAN'T THE

  • STARTED ON SHORT NOTICE.

  • IS A PRECAUTIONARY CASE

  • FOR BUSINESS STIMULUS RATHER

  • THAN WE NEED IT RIGHT NOW.

  • OF COURSE, WE CAN BORROW VERY

  • CHEAPLY AND WE NEED

  • INFRASTRUCTURE.

  • WANT TO BRING IN

  • SOMETHING CARL ICAHN SAID.

  • ARE THINK TRUMP'S POLICIES

  • POSSIBLY THE ONLY THING THAT

  • WILL SAVE US FROM GOING DOWN

  • THIS DECLINE WE ARE IN ON

  • PRODUCTIVITY.

  • SCARLET: THE LATEST PRODUCTIVITY

  • NUMBERS WERE DISAPPOINTING.

  • INVESTORS, BIG BUSINESS,

  • POLICYMAKERS MISUNDERSTAND THE

  • MOST ABOUT PRODUCTIVITY?

  • I'M NOT SURE THAT INVESTORS

  • MISUNDERSTAND, BUT I THINK WHAT

  • CARL ICAHN IS PRETENDING TO

  • MISUNDERSTAND IS THAT THE

  • PRESIDENT HAS A LOT TO DO WITH

  • THAT.

  • THE PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN IS A

  • GLOBAL PHENOMENON.

  • LL AND IN A LU

  • TECHNOLOGY.

  • THERE IS NOTHING A PRESIDENT CAN

  • DO ABOUT THAT.

  • >> WE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO

  • DISCERN IF THERE IS SOME KIND OF

  • MARKET REACTION TO A CLINTON OR

  • TRUMP PRESIDENCY, AND IT'S HARD

  • TO FIGURE OUT AT THIS POINT.

  • IT SHOULD INVESTORS BE

  • CONCERNED?

  • HOW ARE PEOPLE TRADING IN MAKING

  • MONEY AND MARKETS THE THINKING

  • ABOUT IT?

  • >> WE DON'T KNOW WHAT HE WOULD

  • DO.

  • THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE HE

  • WOULD STAY IN THE BOUNDS OF

  • ANYBODY'S NOTION OF

  • RESPONSIBILITY.

  • ONE NUCLEAR WAR CAN SPOIL YOUR

  • WHOLE DAY.

  • NEVER MIND MY INVESTMENTS, HOW

  • ABOUT MY LIFE?

  • SCARLET: STICK WITH US.

  • WE WILL DISCUSS MORE AFTER THE

  • BREAK ON WHETHER IT IS TIME FOR

  • CENTRAL BANKS TO CHANGE COURSE

  • AND MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR CURRENT

  • MO.

  • THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

  • SCARLET: WE ARE HERE WITH PAUL

  • KRUGMAN.

  • RESERVETHE FEDERAL

  • THINKING ABOUT A RETHINK OF

  • MONETARY POLICY.

  • FEDERAL RESERVE

  • KNOW WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO IT?

  • MUCH.

  • THERE IS AN ACCUMULATION OF

  • EVIDENCE THAT MONETARY POLICY IS

  • PRETTY INEFFECTIVE.

  • WE CAME INTO THIS THINKING

  • MONETARY POLICY AT ZERO RATES

  • WAS INEFFECTIVE, THEN QE, THEN

  • NEGATIVE RATES, WHICH I HAVE TO

  • ADMIT I DID NOT THINK WAS

  • POSSIBLE, BUT IT IS NOT ACTUALLY

  • DOING VERY MUCH.

  • YOU HAVE NEGATIVE RATES IN

  • EUROPE AND THEY STILL CAN'T MOVE

  • INFLATION.

  • MASSIVE QE, HOW MUCH GOOD DID

  • THAT DO?

  • SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE ARE

  • GOING BACK TO SQUARE ONE.

  • IT WAS THAT THE ONLY THING YOU

  • COULD DO TO CREDIBLY PROMISE

  • HIGHER INFLATION, AND ONLY BY

  • CHANGING, CREATING THE

  • IMPRESSION OF A REGIME CHANGE

  • EVEN AFTER RECOVERY, THAT WAS HE

  • ONLY WAY MONETARY POLICY WAS

  • GOING TO GET TRACTION, AND WE

  • ARE MOST OF THE WAY BACK TO THAT

  • VIEW RIGHT NOW.

  • SCARLET: WAS THE PRESIDENT OF

  • THE SAN FRANCISCO FED CORRECT IN

  • SAYING WISHES AT HIGHER

  • INFLATION TARGETS.

  • THAT FOR AEEN FOR

  • WHILE.

  • I WENT TO THE ECB RESEARCH

  • CONFERENCE AND SAID THAT.

  • THEY WERE ALL POLITE AND IGNORED

  • ME.

  • THAT'S WHERE I CAME IN AND 19 98

  • TALKING ABOUT JAPAN, THE SAME

  • THING.

  • JOE: WE GOT THIS NOTE FROM JOHN

  • WILLIAMS WHERE HE LAID OUT

  • POSSIBILITY FOR RETHINKING,

  • COMMITTED TO HIGHER INFLATION,

  • STABILIZERS, AND

  • WHEN I READ IT, I THOUGHT THIS

  • IS STUFF PEOPLE HAVE THEM

  • TALKING ABOUT FOR YEARS.

  • I GUESS THE REAL STORY IS THAT

  • IT'S COMING FROM SOMEONE SO

  • CENTRAL AT THE FED.

  • >> A LOT OF IT IS HISTORY.

  • THERE WAS BLOOD, SWEAT, TEARS,

  • AND TOYA TO GET INFLATION DOWN,

  • AND THE ALL SETTLED ON THIS 2%

  • TARGET, AND VERY HARD TO SAY

  • THAT MAYBE THAT WAS SET TO LOW.

  • THAT IS SOMETHING THEY HAVE BEEN

  • RELUCTANT TO RETHINK, AND EVEN

  • NOW.

  • THE FAT THAT ANYONE AT

  • IS WILLING TO ENTERTAIN THAT

  • FED IS WILLINGE

  • TO ENTERTAIN THAT NOTION --

  • SEE NEXTYOU WANT TO

  • WEEK?

  • INTERESTED INORE

  • READING RESEARCH PAPERS.

  • RADICAL RETHINK IS GOING TO

  • HAPPEN, IT WILL NOT HAPPEN IN

  • OPEN DISCUSSION ON THE FLOOR.

  • IT WILL HAPPEN BEHIND CLOSED

  • DOORS.

  • BLACKBALLEDVE BEEN

  • FROM JACKSON HOLE SINCE I

  • CRITICIZE ALAN GREENSPAN YEARS

  • AGO.

  • THE VALUE IS TO HAVE THE CENTRAL

  • BANKERS EXPOSED TO SMART

  • ACADEMICS.

  • >> WE WILL LOOK INTO THE

  • BLACKLISTING.

  • JOE: YOU WERE IN JAPAN AND MET

  • , I'M MINISTER SHINZO ABE

  • CURIOUS WHAT YOUR PRESCRIPTION

  • IS FOR JAPAN, AND HAVING SEEN

  • THE ABENOMICS EXPERIENCE OVER

  • THE LAST COUPLE YEARS WITH MIXED

  • RESULTS, WHAT IS YOUR TAKE AWAY?

  • WHAT DID YOU LEARN?

  • >> WE ARE SEEING THE LIMITS OF

  • MONETARY POLICY.

  • ABENOMICS WAS THE SUPPOSED TO BE

  • UNORTHODOXNSION,

  • MONETARY POLICY, AND FISCAL

  • REFORM.

  • THE SECOND ERROR NEVER CAME

  • ALONG.

  • THERE HAS BEEN NOTE NET FISCAL

  • STIMULUS.

  • WAS A CONSUMPTION TAX

  • HIKE, A BIG MISTAKE.

  • I WAS ONE OF THE PEOPLE WHO HELP

  • E NOT TO DO AB

  • ANOTHER ROUND.

  • I AM AN ADMIRER OF GOVERNOR

  • KURODA.

  • I THINK THE CENTRAL BANK OF

  • JAPAN HAS DONE WONDERS THINGS

  • GIVING ITS HISTORY AND

  • CONSTRAINTS, BUT HAS NOT HAD THE

  • BACKING OF AN EXPANSIONIST

  • MONETARY POLICY.

  • SCARLET: CAN THE BOJ GET DONE

  • WHAT IT NEEDS TO DO?

  • >> I THINK SO.

  • JAPAN NEEDS A HIGHER INFLATION

  • TARGET.

  • THEY NEED TO GO FURTHER.

  • SCARLET: ARE THEY AS CONSTRAINED

  • AS THE FED IS?

  • CONSTRAINED IN THE

  • SAME WAY?

  • >> I DON'T THINK SO.

  • CAN DO STUFF IN A WAY

  • THAT THE U.S. PRESIDENT CANNOT.

  • THEY HAVE DECADES OF STAGNATION.

  • THEY HAVE BECOME THE MOST

  • ADVENTUROUS POLICYMAKERS IN THE

  • ADVANCED WORLD.

  • MORE WITH PAUL KRUGMAN

  • AND THE STATE OF MACRO ECONOMIC

  • STILL AHEAD.

  • THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

  • JOE:JOE: I AM HERE WITH PAUL

  • KRUGMAN.

  • TAKE, A LOT OF

  • DEBATE LATELY ON THE STATE OF

  • MACRO ECONOMICS.

  • YOU HAVE WRITTEN ABOUT IT.

  • PEOPLE COMPLAIN THE MAINSTREAM

  • HAS GONE OFF IN A BAD DIRECTION.

  • WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON IT?

  • 1970'S, A STRONG CRITIQUE OF

  • KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS, STAGFLATION

  • WAS A BIG SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM,

  • AND IN RESPONSE, EVERYBODY MOVED

  • OFF TOWARDS MODELS WHERE PEOPLE

  • RATIONAL, RUSSIAN

  • EXPECTATIONS, LIMITED ROLE FOR

  • GOVERNMENT POLICY, AND A BIG

  • MATHING UP.

  • IT HAS TURNED OUT THAT ALL OF

  • THOSE MODELS HAVE BEHAVED BADLY

  • SINCE 2007.

  • THEY HAVE NOT HANDLED THE EVENTS

  • WELL.

  • , OLD-FASHIONED WAYS

  • HAVE WORKED BETTER.

  • JOE: YOU HEAR TALK ABOUT

  • MMT SCHOOL,THE

  • WHERE YOU FALL ON THIS DEBATE?

  • >> NEITHER.

  • -- MACRO AS WE DID

  • IT FROM 1936-1970 TURNS OUT TO

  • HAVE A LOT OF INSIGHT TO THE

  • CURRENT SITUATION.

  • THERE ARE PLACES WHERE I AGREE

  • WITH THEM, BUT I DON'T NEED

  • THEIR APPROACH TO GET THERE.

  • COLLECTIVE, FOR A

  • USING STUFF THAT SEEMS TO WORK,

  • KEEPING AN OPEN MIND, KNOWING

  • YOUR OLD BOOKS, AND EMPIRICAL

  • WORK.

  • OF GOODEEING A LOT

  • EMPIRICAL WORK FROM YOUNGER

  • ECONOMISTS.

  • IN THE PRIMARY, YOU WERE

  • CRITICAL -- OF THE ECONOMISTS

  • WERE PROVIDING THE FODDER FOR

  • SANDERS.

  • WAS THAT AN UNUSUAL SITUATION

  • FOR YOU?

  • , I DID NOT OBJECT IN

  • PRINCIPLE TO MORE SPENDING, BUT

  • I DO BELIEVE IN STAYING HONEST

  • WITH YOUR MODELING.

  • I DON'T THINK IT WAS

  • DELIBERATELY DECEPTIVE.

  • I JUST DON'T THINK IT WAS

  • COMPETENT.

  • THERE WERE ASSUMPTIONS MADE THAT

  • WERE WILDLY IMPLAUSIBLE, NAMELY

  • BECAUSE THE PEOPLE DOING THEM

  • DID NOT KNOW THEIR STUFF.

  • KRUGMAN, THANK YOU FOR

  • JOINING US, FASCINATING

  • DISCUSSIONS ON THIS.

  • THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

  • SCARLET: COMING UP, FROM ONE

  • NOTED ECONOMIST TO ANOTHER,

  • AROUND THE WORLD WITH GEORGE

  • MAGNUS OF UBS, DISCUSSING

  • CHINA'S ECONOMY.

  • THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

  • "WHAT'D YOU MISS?"

  • FIRST WORD NEWS.

  • NOT SURE WHY DONALD

  • TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN IS STRUGGLING

  • TO STAY ON MESSAGE, BUT STILL

  • BELIEVES THAT DONALD TRUMP IS

  • AMERICA'S BEST OPTION FOR THE

  • WHITE HOUSE.

  • HE SPOKE IN AN EXCLUSIVE

  • INTERVIEW WITH BLOOMBERG >>.

  • >>I WOULD LIKE TO SEE TRUMP WIN

  • THIS BECAUSE HE'S THE ONLY HOPE

  • TO SAVE AMERICA IS THE WAY WE

  • KNOW IT.

  • MARK: HE ALSO SAID HE'S

  • CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF

  • FORMING A SUPER PAC, BUT

  • CAUTIONED IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

  • THE UNITED NATIONS IS "GRAVELY

  • CONCERNED ABOUT THE SAFETY OF

  • CIVILIANS, INCLUDING THOUSANDS

  • OF CHILDREN AND ALEPPO."

  • SYRIAN OPPOSITION

  • MONITORING GROUP SAID AIRSTRIKES

  • ON REBEL HELD PARTS OF THE CITY

  • LEFT 15 CIVILIANS DEAD AND MANY

  • OTHERS WOUNDED.

  • THE EUROPEAN AVIATION SAFETY

  • AGENCY IS PROPOSING MEDICAL

  • , WANTING PILOTS

  • RESULTS FROM DRUG AND ALCOHOL

  • SCREENINGS INCLUDED IN MENTAL

  • HEALTH ASSESSMENTS AND A BETTER

  • SYSTEM ON KEEPING TABS ON PILOTS

  • WITH MENTAL ISSUES.

  • A GERMANWINGS PILOT CRASHED THE

  • PLANE INTO A MOUNTAIN IN THE

  • FRENCH ALPS, KILLING 150 PEOPLE

  • ON BOARD.

  • FEWER PEOPLE IN THE UNITED

  • STATES ARE GETTING FOOD STAMPS.

  • ENROLLMENT IS DOWN 9% FROM ITS

  • THAN 43 MILLION.

  • ONE REASON, SEVEN STATES ARE

  • ENDING BENEFITS EARLIER THAN

  • THEY HAVE TO.

  • ARE ALMOST TWICE AS MANY

  • AMERICANS GETTING FOOD STAMPS AS

  • THERE WERE BEFORE THE RECESSION.

  • GLOBAL NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY

  • POWERED BY MORE THAN 2600

  • JOURNALISTS AND ANALYSTS IN MORE

  • THAN 120 COUNTRIES.

  • THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

  • SCARLET: THANK YOU.

  • U.S. STOCKS, LET'S GET A RECAP.

  • FALLING, DOLLAR DID PAIR

  • OFFICIAL COMMENT

  • SPURRING SPECULATION ON HIRING

  • BORROWING COSTS AS THE DATA

  • TODAY SHOW THE RECOVERY IS

  • UNEVEN.

  • THE INDEXES DECLINED FROM RECORD

  • HIGHS.

  • UNDER 13.S STILL

  • "WHAT'D YOU MISS?"

  • VOLATILITY IN THE YUAN HAS

  • DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL.

  • NATION CENTRAL BANK IN

  • CONTROL?

  • JOINING ME NOW FROM LONDON IS

  • GEORGE MAGNUS.

  • THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

  • CHINA'SATER, IS

  • MONETARY POLICY AND CURRENCY

  • POLICY ON A MORE SOUND FOOTING?

  • KEEL IS ON AN EVEN

  • COMPARED WITH THIS TIME LAST

  • YEAR.

  • AT THE TURN OF THE YEAR, WE HAD

  • PANIC FOR MUCHOF

  • THE SAME REASON IN DECEMBER AND

  • JANUARY.

  • THE PBOC INTRODUCED A BASKET,

  • TRYING TO MANAGE THE THE

  • CURRENCY, AND DECEMBER, CAPITAL

  • CONTROLS OF BEEN TIGHTENED, THE

  • ECONOMY IS LOOKING MORE STABLE

  • THANKS TO ROBUST STIMULUS

  • , SO FOR THEODUCED

  • TIME BEING, THINGS CERTAINLY

  • MORE CALM.

  • ARE YOU OF THE OPINION

  • THAT WE SHOULD BE PAYING CLOSER

  • ATTENTION TO THE SIGNALING OF

  • THE UNDERLYING CHINESE ECONOMY

  • OR ARE THINGS THAT STRONG THAT

  • WE CAN MOVE ON AND MOVE PAST THE

  • DEPRECIATION?

  • >> MY FEELING IS THAT IF GLOBAL

  • WERE GUILTY OF

  • OVERREACTING IN AUGUST LAST YEAR

  • AND JANUARY THIS YEAR, THEN I

  • THINK AT THE MOMENT THAT THEY

  • ARE BEING A LITTLE COMPLACENT.

  • MAYBE MARKETS HAVE HAD JUST TOO

  • MANY THINGS TO THINK ABOUT, FED

  • EXIT.Y, BR

  • AT THINGS HAVEIN

  • LMED IN THE CHINESE MARKET

  • IS BECAUSE OF AN EXTERNAL GROWTH

  • IN CREDIT AND A BIG FISCAL BOOST

  • WITH THE SHARE OF GOVERNMENT

  • SPENDING RISING THREE PERCENTAGE

  • POINTS OF GDP AND LAST 18

  • MONTHS.

  • A LOT OF INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING

  • , COMPENSATING FOR THE DECLINE

  • IN PRIVATE INVESTMENT FOR THE

  • FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN,

  • SO THE PROBLEM IS THAT THESE

  • THINGS WON'T BE ABLE TO

  • CONTINUE.

  • THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT WON'T BE

  • ABLE TO SUSTAIN THESE THINGS.

  • DISSENSIONSME GREAT

  • GOING ON WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT

  • AS TO WHETHER THEY SHOULD BE

  • PURSUING THESE POLICIES IN THE

  • FIRST PLACE, SO MY HUNCH IS THAT

  • THINGS WILL START TO SLOW DOWN

  • DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE

  • YEAR IN THE ECONOMY, AND THE

  • RENMINBI WILL WEAKEN AGAIN.

  • WHAT IS THE COST OF

  • CHINA MAINTAINING STABILITY AT

  • ALL COSTS?

  • COST IS THAT IN THE SHORT

  • RUN, WHICH IS TO SAY FOR THE

  • FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WE HAVE

  • EXACTLY THIS KIND OF SITUATION

  • WHERE NOBODY REALLY PAYS A HUGE

  • AMOUNT OF ATTENTION TO WHAT IS

  • BUT AS MOST ECONOMISTS

  • WOULD PROBABLY RECOGNIZE OR

  • CONCEDE, AND THE LONGER THE

  • AND POLICY STANCE

  • CONTINUES WITH CREDIT GROWING TO

  • TIMES OR THREE TIMES THE AMOUNT

  • OF NOMINAL GDP AND WITH FISCAL

  • STIMULUS AS WELL, THE BIGGER THE

  • AND THEIRADJUSTMENT

  • RISK OF A FINANCIAL INSTABILITY

  • IS GOING TO BE, PERHAPS AT A

  • TIME WHEN THE CHINESE WOULD NOT

  • BEOSE IT, AND THE YEAR WILL

  • REALLY IMPORTANT BECAUSE AT THE

  • END OF 2017, THE 19TH CONGRESS,

  • TO PUTE PRESIDENT

  • IT BEFORE HIS PEOPLE.

  • THE LONGER YOU DON'T ROCK THE

  • BOAT, THE ROUGHER IT IS LIKELY

  • TO BECOME.

  • THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVE SEEN

  • AND OUR OWN EXPERIENCE, AND

  • CHINA IS LOOKING TO BE HEADED IN

  • THE SAME WAY.

  • SOMETHING YOU SAID ABOUT

  • THE NARRATIVE ON CHINA STABILITY

  • GETTING STALE, THE CITY'S

  • SURPRISE INDEX FOR

  • CHINA TOOK A SHARP LEG DOWN

  • AFTER MEDIOCRE RETAIL SALES,

  • , SO WE ARE ALREADY

  • SEEING THE INABILITY FOR CHINA

  • TO HOLD UP THAT CREDIT AND

  • FISCAL DRIVEN STABILITY THAT WAS

  • A STORY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF

  • THE YEAR?

  • >> YES, THAT IS RIGHT.

  • THE SECONDARY STORY AWAY FROM

  • THE HEADLINES IS THAT THE MORE

  • THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO SEVCON

  • CENTCOM

  • DO NEXT THEY GOING TO

  • TIME?

  • WILL THEY INCREASE FISCAL

  • SPENDING FURTHER, CUT INTEREST

  • RATES AT A TIME WHEN THE ECONOMY

  • DOES NOT NEED IT?

  • ARE THEY GOING TO ALLOW CREDIT

  • TO GROW?

  • THESE ARE ISSUES WHICH WERE

  • A SO-CALLED AUTHORITY

  • OF SOURCE THAT EVERYBODY

  • UNDERSTANDS AS CLOSE TO THE

  • PRESIDENT IN MAY, AND NOTHING

  • HAS HAPPENED.

  • THIS IS THE ISSUE REALLY.

  • IT IS JUST NOT SUSTAINABLE, AND

  • THE LONGER THE GOVERNMENT TRIES

  • TO STICK TO THIS OLD MODEL OF

  • KEEPING THE ECONOMY GOING AT ANY

  • 6.5%, SUBSCRIBING TO THE

  • TO 7% GDP TARGET, THE MORE

  • DAMAGING IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME.

  • ONLY PREDICT WITH

  • CERTAINTY THAT IT HAS A LIFESPAN

  • OF THREE MONTH'S OR FOUR MONTHS,

  • THAT WOULD BE SO MUCH EASIER AS

  • AN INVESTOR, BUT YOU CAN'T DO

  • THAT.

  • IT IS LIABLE TO ERUPT AT SOME

  • POINT AND COULD BE WITHIN THREE

  • MONTH'S OR 13 MONTHS, VERY

  • DIFFICULT TO SAY.

  • SCARLET: IT IS KICKING THE CAN

  • DOWN THE ROAD.

  • GEORGE MAGNUS OF UBS WILL STAY

  • WITH US.

  • VOTE WITHPOST-BREXIT

  • A SPOTLIGHT ON TRADE.

  • THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

  • OLIVER: IT IS TIME FOR THE

  • BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH, SOME

  • OF THE BIGGEST BUSINESS STORIES

  • IN THE NEWS.

  • VOLUME, AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE

  • BY FORD IN 2021, SKIPPING

  • INTERIM STEPS OF DRIVER ASSISTED

  • AND MATCH BMW.

  • THE SECOND-BIGGEST U.S.

  • AUTOMAKER IS WORKING WITH 40

  • STARTUPS IN ADDITION TO

  • EXPANDING ITS SILICON VALLEY

  • OPERATIONS.

  • MORPH INTO A TO

  • MULTIPURPOSE TRIP PLANNER.

  • TESTING A NEW MOBILE APP

  • TENTATIVELY NAMED AIRBNB TRIPS,

  • PERSONAL ITINERARIES,

  • INFORMATION ABOUT RENTALS,

  • DINING, AND HAPPY HOUR EVEN'S.

  • ITSE PLANNING TO INCREASE

  • CHINA INVESTMENTS AND

  • PARTICIPATE IN THE COUNTRIES

  • INTERNET PLUS STRATEGY.

  • TIM COOK MADE THE ANNOUNCEMENT

  • TODAY DURING A MEETING WITH THE

  • CHINESE VICE PREMIER.

  • REPORTS THAT APPLE IS SETTING UP

  • AN INDEPENDENT RESEARCH AND

  • DEVELOPMENT CENTER IN CHINA

  • BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.

  • THAT IS THE BLOOMBERG BUSINESS

  • FLASH.

  • SCARLET: I AM SCARLET FU.

  • "WHAT'D YOU MISS?"

  • U.K. INFLATION ACCELERATED

  • FASTER THAN FORECAST.

  • TWO SIGNS THAT THE POUND'S

  • POST-REFERENDUM DECLINE IS

  • PUSHING UP PRICES.

  • FOR MORE NOW, WE ARE BACK WITH

  • THE GEORGE MAGNUS.

  • WE ARE GETTING THESE DATA POINTS

  • INDICATING THE VOTE AND

  • A RESULTE HIT THAT WAS

  • AFFECTING THE U.K. ECONOMY.

  • MEANTIME, THE TIMETABLE TO

  • NEGOTIATE IS GETTING LONGER,

  • MORE PROTRACTED AND COMPLEX.

  • WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE

  • LIKELIHOOD OF A BREXIT FROM THE

  • EU?

  • HAS THAT DECREASED?

  • ANSWER THATCOULD

  • QUESTION.

  • IT'S THE SAME QUESTION ALL 65

  • MILLION OF US ARE ASKING, NOT TO

  • MENTION EUROPE.

  • IF YOU CAST YOUR MIND BACK

  • BRIEFLY BEFORE THE REFERENDUM,

  • POLITICIANS SAYING THAT IF THE

  • VOTE IS NO, WE WILL HAVE TO GIVE

  • NOTION OF OUR INTENTION TO QUIT

  • THE DAY AFTER THE REFERENDUM

  • , AND THAT DIDN'T

  • HAPPEN.

  • IN JULY, PEOPLE WERE TALKING

  • ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF

  • TRIGGERING THE SO-CALLED ARTICLE

  • YEAR,ORE THE END OF THE

  • AND THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN

  • NOW BECAUSE THERESA MAY HAS SAID

  • IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME IN

  • 2017.

  • NOW WE ARE SEEING ALL SORTS OF

  • THEUSSIONS GOING ON WITH

  • GOVERNMENT OF SCOTLAND,

  • GOVERNMENT OF NORTHERN IRELAND,

  • THE GERMANS AND FRENCH HAVE

  • ELECTIONS IN 2017 IN MARCH AND

  • SEPTEMBER, SO THERE IS A

  • SPORTING CHANCE THAT THE

  • NEGOTIATIONS WON'T GET GOING

  • UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT YEAR,

  • AND MAYBE NOT UNTIL THE END OF

  • NEXT YEAR, IF AT ALL, SO PEOPLE

  • ARE BEGINNING TO UNDERSTAND A

  • LITTLE BIT MORE NOW.

  • ARGUABLY THEY SHOULD HAVE DONE

  • SO BEFORE THE REFERENDUM TOOK

  • LACE, BUT PEOPLE ARE BEGINNING

  • TO UNDERSTAND ABOUT HOW IN NORMS

  • THE COMPLEX AND TIME-CONSUMING

  • THIS IS ALL GOING TO BE.

  • WE JUST FLASHED THE

  • LINEUP OF DATA IN THE U.K.,

  • UNEMPLOYMENT, RETAIL, AND

  • LARGELY THE MARKET IS LOOKING AT

  • THESE NUMBERS TO FIGURE OUT WHAT

  • IS GOING TO GO WRONG AND HOW BAD

  • BREXIT WILL BE, BUT WHEN YOU SEE

  • , IS THERES DOING WELL

  • A CHANCE HERE THAT PERHAPS THERE

  • WILL BE A CERTAIN POINT THAT WE

  • CAN SAY THE DATA IS NOT CROPPING

  • UP YET AND MAY BE THE FALLOUT IS

  • NOT AS BAD AS WE EXPECTED?

  • >> THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION, AND

  • B ANSWER.A AND

  • VOTE AFFECTS THE

  • POTENTIAL LEVEL OF DEMAND IN THE

  • ECONOMY.

  • WE HAVE NOT HAD ANYTHING OTHER

  • THAN ANECDOTE ABOUT WHAT IS

  • ,OING ON IN THE REAL ECONOMY

  • AND IT IS ONLY A MONTHS WORTH OF

  • DATA, SO WE WON'T GET A REAL

  • FEEL FOR THIS UNTIL OCTOBER.

  • THE DOE CONCERN IN THE

  • GOVERNMENT'S CONCERN HERE IS

  • THAT WE COULD GET TIPPED INTO A

  • RECESSION IF INVESTMENT SPENDING

  • AND EMPLOYMENT HIRES, IF THESE

  • THINGS DRY UP, THEN WE WILL GO

  • OVER THE EDGE.

  • THAT IS A POSSIBILITY.

  • IT IS BY NO MEANS A SHOE IN.

  • I DON'T WANT TO DIMINISH THIS OR

  • SAY THAT IT IS NOT IMPORTANT,

  • BUT IF WE DID HAVE A RECESSION,

  • IT WOULD NOT BE A 2008-2009 KIND

  • OF DOWNTURN, BECAUSE THE BANKING

  • SYSTEM IS FUNDAMENTALLY OK, SO

  • WE WERE NOT HAVE CREDIT

  • KIND OFN, THAT

  • DOWNTURN, AND WE WOULD RECOVER

  • FROM A BUSINESS DOWNTURN WITHIN

  • A REASONABLE TIME.

  • IN MY VIEW IS MUCH MORE

  • IMPORTANT, THE ECONOMY'S

  • POTENTIAL TO GROW OVER THE NEXT

  • 5-10 YEARS.

  • IF WE SCREW UP AND MAKE A MESS

  • , BOTHDE AND INVESTMENT

  • BRITISH COMPANIES AND FOREIGN

  • COMPANIES THAT WANT TO SET UP IN

  • THE U.K., IF WE RESTRICT THE

  • IMPORTED SKILLED LABOR, THESE

  • ARE THE THINGS THAT WILL REALLY

  • IMPACT THE BRITISH ECONOMY'S

  • SATISFACTORILY,

  • AND THAT WOULD BE MUCH MORE

  • DANGEROUS THAN SIX MONTHS OF A

  • RECESSION.

  • JOE: SOME OF THE PRO-BREXIT

  • CAMPAIGNERS SAID IT IS OK IF WE

  • LEAVE OF THE COMMON MARKET

  • BECAUSE COUNTRIES WILL BE

  • BEATING DOWN OUR DOOR AND WE

  • WILL SIGN ALL THESE BILATERAL

  • TRADE AS WE WEREN'T ALLOWED TO

  • SIGN WHEN WE WERE PART OF THE

  • EU.

  • WHAT DO YOU THINK THE U.K.

  • TRADING RELATIONSHIP WITH THE

  • REST OF THE WORLD WILL LOOK LIKE

  • AFTER IT LEAVES THE EU?

  • DILUDED.K THAT IS ALL

  • PEOPLE HAVE THE IDEA THAT

  • THE WORLD IS A WONDERFUL PLACE

  • ,O DO BUSINESS AND TRADE

  • SEVERAL BRITISH MINISTERS AND

  • POLITICIANS HAVE SAID THE WORLD

  • IS LINING UP TO DO TRADE DEALS

  • WITH BRITAIN, BUT THE REALITY IS

  • QUITE DIFFERENT.

  • AND WORLD FUNK,

  • EXPORT CLAIMS ARE 15% BELOW THE

  • TREND LINE WE WOULD HAVE SEEN IF

  • THE FINANCIAL CRISIS HAD NOT

  • HAPPENED.

  • THAT IS NUMBER ONE.

  • NUMBER TWO, IS PROTECTIONISM IS

  • RISING IN WAYS THAT MOST PEOPLE

  • DON'T SEE, AND THE REASON THEY

  • DON'T SEE IT IS NOT BECAUSE OF

  • TERRORISTS, BUT BECAUSE OF

  • THAT ISFF BARRIERS

  • GATHERING MOMENTUM THROUGHOUT

  • THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

  • OF THE PERPETRATORS ARE

  • G-20 ECONOMIES THAT WE WANT TO

  • DO OUR TRADING WITH.

  • THE THIRD THING IS THAT THE

  • BRITISH ECONOMY DEPENDS A LOT ON

  • SERVICES EXPORTS.

  • SERVICES TO OF OUR

  • THE EU, THE UNITED STATES, AND

  • JAPAN.

  • WE WILL NOT BE SELLING A LOT OF

  • SERVICES TO THE CHINESE COME THE

  • INDIANS, AND EMERGING COUNTRIES.

  • IF THESE NONTARIFF BARRIERS COME

  • INTO EFFECT, THEY WILL BE A BIG

  • PRICE TO PAY.

  • JOE: GEORGE MAGNUS, THANK YOU

  • VERY MUCH.

  • SCARLET: COMING UP, A NEW POLL

  • SHOWS DONALD TRUMP TRAILING

  • HILLARY CLINTON BY WIDE MARGINS

  • IN VIRGINIA AND FLORIDA.

  • IS IT TOO LATE FOR DONALD TRUMP

  • TO TURN IT ALL AROUND?

  • THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

  • HILLARY CLINTON IS

  • EXPANDING HER LEAD INTO HE

  • BATTLED GROUND STATES.

  • A WASHINGTON POST POLL SHOWS

  • CLINTON WITH A 14 POINT LEAD

  • OVER TRUMP AND VIRGINIA.

  • A NEW POLL HAS THE DEMOCRAT UP

  • BY NINE POINTS IN FLORIDA.

  • LET'S FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING

  • ON.

  • WELCOME.

  • WHAT GIVES ON THE LATEST POLL?

  • ANYTHING HAPPENED BETWEEN LAST

  • TIME AND NOW?

  • IS GETTING WORSE FOR

  • TRUMP.

  • VIRGINIA IS STARTING TO LOOK OUT

  • OF REACH.

  • I THINK HIS CAMPAIGN IS MORE

  • WORRIED ABOUT THE POLLS IN

  • FLORIDA.

  • OLIVER: TRUMP THROUGH THE

  • PRIMARIES WAS ALL ABOUT THE

  • POLLING, BUT NOW HE'S NOT

  • TALKING ABOUT IT SO MUCH.

  • IS HE GIVING ANY COMMENTARY ON

  • THE LATEST NUMBERS?

  • LIKE HE IS

  • RECONCILING HIMSELF TO THE IDEA

  • THAT HE MIGHT JUST LOSE.

  • A COUPLE OFONED

  • TIMES THAT IF HE LOSES, HE WILL

  • TAKE A LONG VACATION.

  • IT'S INTERESTING THAT SOME OF

  • HIS SUPPORTERS ARE DISMISSING A

  • LOT OF THESE POLLS AND INSISTING

  • THAT RALLY ATTENDANCE IS A

  • BETTER MEASURE OF SUPPORT FOR

  • EVENANDIDATE THAN POLLING,

  • THOUGH THE POLLING WAS QUITE

  • ACCURATE DURING THE PRIMARIES

  • WHEN IT SAID HE WOULD WIN, AND

  • HE DID.

  • JOE: YOU SOUND A LITTLE

  • SKEPTICAL OF THE RALLY MEASURES.

  • THERE HAS BEEN TALK OF THE

  • PEOPLE URGING THE RNC TO CUT AND

  • RUN TO AVOID A DOWN BALLOT

  • BLOODBATH.

  • DO YOU SEE ANY CHANCE OF THAT

  • HAPPENING?

  • IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO ME.

  • THAT WOULD BE A MAJOR DEPARTURE

  • FOR THENDARDS AND NORMS

  • PARTY COMMITTEE TO ABANDON THE

  • PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE AND

  • TIREDLY.

  • -- CANDIDATE ENTIRELY.

  • THERE WAS SOME REPORTING THAT

  • THE CHAIRMAN WOULD DO THAT

  • UNLESS HE ENDORSED PAUL RYAN,

  • AND THEN DONALD TRUMP CAME OUT

  • AND ENDORSED HIM.

  • I THINK HE WILL HAVE THE PARTY

  • SUPPORT THROUGH THE ELECTION.

  • FOR DONALDAT IS NEXT

  • TRUMP, I FOREIGN POLICY SPEECH,

  • AND ECONOMIC POLICY SPEECH.

  • TO BE PUTTING A

  • LOT OF STOCK INTO CAMPAIGNING IN

  • PLACES LIKE VIRGINIA, SO HOW

  • DOES HE TURN THE MOMENTUM

  • AROUND?

  • TONIGHT HE IS IN WISCONSIN,

  • ANOTHER STATE MOVING RAPIDLY OUT

  • OF REACH FOR HIM, SO HE'S NOT

  • ABANDONING THE CHANCE TO WIN IN

  • THESE PLACES.

  • THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE

  • UPCOMING DEBATES AS THE NEXT KEY

  • TURNING POINT IN THIS CAMPAIGN.

  • HE HAS TO WIN THE DEBATES ARE

  • PROBABLY HIS CAMPAIGN IS OVER.

  • JOE: THANK YOU FOR THE UPDATE.

  • SCARLET: COMING UP, WHICH YOU

  • NEED TO KNOW TO CARE OF FOR

  • TOMORROW'S TRADING DAY.

  • THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

  • SCARLET: DON'T MISS THIS.

  • U.K. UNEMPLOYMENT AND AVERAGE

  • WEEKLY EARNINGS TOMORROW

  • MORNING.

  • OLIVER: TARGET EARNINGS TOMORROW

  • AT 8:00 A.M.

  • JOE: I WILL BE LOOKING AT FED

  • MINUTES OUT TOMORROW AT 2:00

  • P.M..

  • THE ODDS OF A SEPTEMBER HIKE

  • LOW, THE ODDS OF A HIKE THIS

  • YEAR DIMINISH, BUT WE WILL GET A

  • SENSE OF HOW THEY SEE RISKS TO

  • THE ECONOMY AND THE OUTLOOK.

  • SCARLET: A LOT HAS CHANGED SINCE

  • THEN.

  • JOE: WE HAD STRONG DATA, RETAIL

  • SALES DATA, QUESTIONABLE CPI

  • DATA THIS MORNING, SO A LOT TO

  • GO THROUGH.

  • ISVER: EVEN THOUGH SENTIMENT

  • NOTHING WILL HAPPEN, THE

  • LIKELIHOOD OF A RATE HIKE HAS

  • GONE UP SCARLET: A LITTLE BIT.

  • THAT IS IT FOR "WHAT'D YOU

  • MISS?"

  • .

  • JOE: HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

  • THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

STOCKS CLOSING LOWER,

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