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  • Hello and welcome to the Week Ahead from the Financial Times in London.

  • Here are some of the big stories we'll have our eyes on this week.

  • The UN Tribunal plans to make a ruling on disputes in the South China Sea between China and the Philipines.

  • The aluminum giant ALCOA which is undergoing a major restructuring opens the US earning season.

  • And the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee

  • meets for the first time since the UK voted to leave the EU to discuss how to support the British economy.

  • First, geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea have ratcheted up in recent years,

  • and this week should see the first international ruling on the much contested claims made by China in the region.

  • The UN Tribunal will decide on a case brought by the Philipines in 2013 to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea based in The Hague

  • Although the case revolves around technical aspect of maritime law,

  • the ruling could be of great significance by clarifying several issues at the heart of the area's territorial disputes.

  • However, China's Foreign Ministry has said it doesn't recognize the court's authority.

  • Experts expect the court to rule against China on a number of the cases

  • and while the Tribunal has no powers of enforcement if the ruling favors the Philippines,

  • China's reputation is likely to be further damaged if it continues to pursue its claims.

  • The Obama Administration is already framing the ruling as a test of China's respect for international law.

  • so the verdict could aggravate tensions between those two countries which were involved in a broader contest of influence in the region.

  • ALCOA, the US aluminum group that's been working to split itself in two, opens the earnings reporting season on Monday.

  • By the end of the year, it will have divided into a commodity business

  • and a company making specialized metals and components for industries such as cars and aircraft.

  • The breakup plan has been welcomed by some investors

  • although ALCOA's share price has continued to track closely to the aluminum price, hitting a low in January but recovering somewhat since then.

  • And as our US energy editor Ed Krooks explains, the commodity price remains one of the biggest challenges for the company.

  • "The whole group is still very much affected by the price of aluminum and that's gonna be a dominant feature of these latest results.

  • The price of aluminum is down about 15% since the last year,

  • it's actually recovered a bit in 2016 but it's still bit down compared to what it was a year ago

  • and as a result of that we're gonna see lower earnings for ALCOA group, in the second quarter of 2016.

  • Analysts think they are gonna make about, they will have made about 9 cents in earnings per share during the second quarter of 2016

  • and that's down from 19 cents per share which they reported as underlying earnings for the second quarter of 2015.

  • And finally this week we'll see the first meeting of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee since the UK's vote for Brexit

  • roiled markets and raced the specter of recession for the British economy.

  • Signs from Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, that he's willing to prop up a faltering economy,

  • have seen future's markets point to an almost 80% probability of an interest rate cut this week.

  • And just over 20% chance of rates going to 0 at the bank's next meeting in August.

  • Economics reporter Emily Cadman has more.

  • Governor Mark Carney has already said that in his view, monetary policy easing is going to be needed over the summer.

  • Now the bank won't get its new forecast of the UK economy until August.

  • But there's a mood of expectation growing in the city that the bank is going to want to act sooner.

  • That could mean interest rate cuts as soon as Thursday.

  • The bank does have other options of things that it could do.

  • For example, it could restart its quantitive easing program where it buys assets.

  • But most people are expecting it to wait until it has more information before doing that.

  • That's what the week ahead looks like from the Financial Times in London.

  • See you again next time.

Hello and welcome to the Week Ahead from the Financial Times in London.

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