A2 Basic UK 63 Folder Collection
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Hello, and welcome back to The Note.
And it's been another rather miserable day on, well, stock markets both in Europe and the US,
more less all Friday's gains that came after the bank of Japan told us that
it was moving to next * have now been canceled out.
Japan has lost some of its gains since then.
If you also take a look at the oil prices, it's fallen once more,
but perhaps most concerning is what's going on in the bond market.
If you take a look at the 10-year treasury yield, you can see that it has dropped very sharply today.
It's below 1.9%. Okay, it has been lower than that in various times over the last few years,
but it's really quite remarkable that we are seeing a 10-year yield that low,
given the Fed has now actually started raising rates and told us that it's gonna keep doing so.
The people planning on buying the 10-year treasury are forcing its yield down
because there are negative yields elsewhere, but it's still a startling development.
If we now take a look at the bond market from another perspective and take a look at the yield's curve,
in other words, the gap between the yields on the 10-year and the yields on the 2-year treasury,
often seems very complicated but the basic intuition is wider.
That gap is, the greater the optimism is into the future,
the greater the belief is that you'll see growth and inflation and higher rates into the future.
Therefore, when you see narrowing as we've seen now,
we've got the flattest yield's curve since the crisis year of 2008.
That's a very negative sign.
It suggests that people are getting much more concerned about the risk of a recession here in the US.
Even if at least for the time being, the yields on the 2 and the 10-year treasury
haven't inverted in what is a very classic recession indicator.
Now, this is a big development.
Only a month ago, it was taken almost exactly * whatever else happened in the rest of the world,
the US would keep growing.
We've now seen a lot of research reports in the last few days from various brokerages
looking at what recession risk might look like here in the US.
They all come down on the notion, I think correctly that the US isn't in recession yet, but the risks of it are rising.
You can see that's in the very concerning ISM manufacturing date, which is still very mediocre.
You can also see that's in the Fed's senior loan officer survey, which came out this week,
and which show that standards of loans to companies are tightening.
If this proves merely to be a growth , if as still seems likely we can avert a recession
than presumably there should be value from the kind of levels we are at now.
If not, there is further for the stock markets of all.
Ever greater interest therefore, on the nonfarm payroll date, will be getting at the end of this week.
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US recession risk | Authers' Note

63 Folder Collection
Kristi Yang published on February 4, 2016    Mandy Lin translated    Kristi Yang reviewed
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