B1 Intermediate UK 820 Folder Collection
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The commodities complex is having
a good day today
Lifted by the rising oil prices of
the geopolitical
tension took off in the middle East.
But today's bias aside 's been
a miserable year for anyone
exposed to the industrial metals.
Slow down in Chinese demand
trashes the price of everything from
iron, copper and nickel.
Here we got one measure of the effect
of China weakening industrial methods
here in red.
You can see just how appallingly badly
they done.
And the Brazilian rial, the blue line
of both done appallingly.
And more recently Brazil had a little bit of
rebound that's come as fears
about emerging markets of receded
somewhat
but the broad ______ clear,
Brazil is a major exporter commodities
suffers when commodity prices fall.
Really shouldn't be a surprise.
But questions since the summer
has been how far this reflects the reality
of what's underway in China.
Of the equity bubble popped
in the currency was devalued a little
those who believe that China headed for
painful hard landing gain the upper hand
Those prices stabilized investors' notice
that the Chinese are still going to
work and buy iPhones. Hopes for
soft landing returned in emerging market
as a whole.
rallied in October outpacing developed
markets.
This month's been rather more mixed
not least because the renminbi has resumed
its weakening like not particularly
dramatically.
And merging market stocks have pulled
back even as their currencies the
renminbi aside but mostly held up
Third option starting to looking
increasingly appealing though.
As I discussed in August China could have
something of a ________ in economy
Hard on the outside and soft on the inside.
On here I put the main Chinese survey
of manufacturing and services
and fifty her is the dividing line
between growth expansion here
and contraction are down below.
Manufacture shrinking has been for
a little while.
That the growth of services has slowed
as come down a bit recently
I should tell this is
Both of these lines are three- month
moving averages. Because it's quite
a volatile series. Uh well...
That growth has slowed somewhat
it is still growing.
For the moment, looks as though
China's efforts to rebalance its
economy away from exports and
heavy industry and towards consumption
are working.
Problems for investors is to find
something with that idea is
already fully priced in
It's possible that the industrial metals
would fall even further as the
manufacturing side and the heavy
industry in China's economy
continues to shrink.
After all, in real terms price of many
industrial metals still more than double
where they were before China's imports
really took off in the early 2000.
That was tot happen you see
sharp falls hurting both emerging market
reliant on commodity production
and of course the share prices of miner
who already bombed out.
After fall in prices of more than a third
in the past year for industrial metals
and even more than many mining stocks
better on further price drop does
need very strong conviction.
That's probably pretty hard to get
anything that relates to China and
particularly the lack of trust in data.
In other side, companies exposed to
Chinese consumers into mystic growth
quite hard to find out outside China
Those inside China already look
extremely expensive compared to
the state- owned Bahamas which
dominate the country's old-line
industries. Try to grappling with some
very severe debt problems trying to
follow a route which other developing
countries failed to navigate smoothly
may if all this goes wrong, still
ended a much broader crisis.
This moment, it looks as though
the market are betting on
being reasonably likely to have a
successful transformation.
But at the same time,
markets are beginning to recognize
even achieving such a difficult economic
______ would be tough for those who
prospered by supplying the old China.
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Few investment options for ‘new’ China | Short View

820 Folder Collection
Janet Chang published on November 25, 2015
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