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  • Coming up on Market to Market - Wildfires leave

  • more than burned timber and towns in their wake.

  • Government scientists search for foodborne

  • illnesses at the molecular level.

  • And a journey from field crops to vineyards through

  • the bottling of hopes and dreams.

  • Those stories and market analysis with Naomi Blohm,

  • next.

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  • This is the Friday, August 21 edition of Market to

  • Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural America.

  • Hello, I'm Mike Pearson.

  • Next month the federal government could run out

  • of money and the Federal Reserve might raise

  • interest rates.

  • But this week the stock market stole the show

  • despite positive economic indicators.

  • According to the Commerce Department, housing starts

  • rose 0.2 percent in August - the strongest showing in

  • more than 7 years.

  • Data released by the Labor Department revealed the

  • Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in July.

  • When volatile factors like food and energy prices are

  • removed, Core CPI matched the increase.

  • But low inflation and declining foreign markets

  • may sidetrack efforts by the Fed to raise interest

  • rates.

  • Even with positive economic news, plunging

  • overseas markets pushed Wall Street dramatically

  • lower.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500

  • had their worst finishes since October of 2014 with

  • the Dow sinking 528 points at Friday's close.

  • While the market appears to be cooling off, the

  • west continues to burn.

  • To date, this fire season has charred more acres

  • than any year in the past decade.

  • The U.S.

  • Forest Service has been spending $150 million a

  • week on the task and will likely devour its entire

  • firefighting budget by the end of the month.

  • Bone dry conditions present a clear and

  • present danger.

  • And this week, a few who "walk where the devil

  • dances" lost their own battle in this year's epic

  • war to protect towns and timber.

  • The battle against the western wildfires took a

  • deadly turn this week as three firefighters died

  • after a vehicle crash trapped them in what was

  • described as a "hellstorm" of flames.

  • This brings the death toll to 13 for the year.

  • The trio were members of the U.S.

  • Forest Service.

  • Four other firefighters were injured near the

  • north-central Washington town of Twisp.

  • Local officials have urged people in the

  • outdoor-recreation area to evacuate as wildfires

  • advanced through the region.

  • Tinder-dry conditions, high temperatures and

  • winds combined to fuel the inferno in the Evergreen

  • State.

  • One of the biggest fires is near the scenic Cascade

  • Mountain town of Chelan.

  • More than 155 square miles in central Washington have

  • been charred.

  • Nearly 3,000 people were ordered to evacuate the

  • area this week.

  • A major fruit-packer's warehouse in Chelan was

  • destroyed by fire which contained nearly 2 million

  • pounds of apples.

  • Washington is by far the nation's biggest apple

  • producer.

  • The amount of fires across the West is taxing crews

  • as the U.S.

  • military is being sent in to assist.

  • Rob Allen, Deputy Incident Commander: "Nationally,

  • the system is pretty tapped, there is a lot of

  • fires going on not only here, but in Washington,

  • in Oregon, Northern California still burning

  • up.

  • And things have started to pick up in Idaho, Montana

  • and Colorado.

  • Nationally we are at planning level 5.

  • Everything is being used right now, so competition

  • for resources is fierce." And the 29,000 fire

  • fighters in the west could get help from other

  • countries as they work to contain the nearly 1,000

  • fires ...

  • Cooler and calmer weather has given firefighters a

  • break in California and Idaho.

  • The massive 443-square mile Soda fire near the

  • Oregon/Idaho border is nearly contained.

  • At one point this week, almost 900 firefighters

  • were battling the blaze over.

  • Much of the scorched land was used by cattle and

  • sage grouse.

  • At least one farmer was seen herding about 200

  • head of cattle down the road to safety.

  • The U.S.

  • has the most abundant and affordable food supply on

  • earth.

  • Between the field and the table, the USDA has put

  • rules in place to protect that bounty.

  • Occasionally, that supply gets contaminated with

  • unwanted pathogens that make people ill.

  • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are

  • responsible for notifying the public when tainted

  • products make it to grocery store shelves.

  • According to the CDC, foodborne illness costs

  • the U.S.

  • economy nearly $16 billion annually.

  • But agency scientists are always on the lookout for

  • new weapons to prevent, find and reduce the size

  • of the outbreaks.

  • The nation's top disease detectives are betting

  • genetic clues could help combat food poisoning

  • outbreaks.

  • The Centers for Disease Control says of the

  • roughly 48 million Americans infected every

  • year, about three-thousand die of foodborne

  • illnesses.

  • Jill Pollack/Silver Spring, Maryland: "I'm

  • normally very confident in the safety of the food I

  • am buying.

  • Certainly if I hear about something in the news I

  • might be more aware about a particular outbreak."

  • In the wake of last spring's bacterial

  • contamination of Blue Bell Creameries ice cream in

  • Texas, the CDC is expanding a pilot program

  • to ten states that fights back against potentially

  • deadly bacteria and viruses by decoding their

  • DNA.

  • Listeria, the third-leading cause of

  • death by food poisoning, and the culprit in the

  • Lone Star State contamination, is now a

  • top target in germ fighters' crosshairs.

  • Dr. Robert Tauxe/Deputy Director - Division of

  • Foodborne, Waterborne, and Environmental Diseases -

  • Centers For Disease Control and Prevention:

  • "By testing the DNA of the bacteria from people all

  • over the country we may find that people in

  • totally different places are infected with exactly

  • the same bacteria.

  • If we can figure out what it is that they have in

  • common, and show that yes that was the source of the

  • infection, we can find an outbreak even when it's

  • very small."

  • Armed with $30 million from Congress, the CDC is

  • taking advantage of faster and cheaper genome

  • sequencing technology.

  • In the future, government scientists hope to use the

  • game-changing approach across the nation to fight

  • more common bacteria like Salmonella and E.

  • Coli.

  • By identifying pathogens early, officials will be

  • able to warn consumers before widespread

  • outbreaks develop.

  • Those suffering under the drought in the West may

  • receive a reprieve if the predicted El Nino weather

  • system comes to pass.

  • And despite the fact that fruit and vegetable

  • producers continue to worry about where their

  • next drops of water will come from California wine

  • grape growers worry a little less.

  • Production of the specialty crop has been a

  • source of income since the ancient Greek's began

  • fermenting grapes.

  • Today, California vintners produce $24 billion of

  • product annually.

  • But Midwestern growers, once a powerhouse of

  • production, have been getting back into the act.

  • For some producers, the journey to the vineyard

  • has been a long one that has its roots in other

  • commodities.

  • Delaney Howell explains.

  • Headquartered just south of Sacramento, California,

  • is Lange Twins Family Winery and Vineyard.

  • Dating back 4 generations, the original vineyard was

  • planted just prior to the beginning of Prohibition,

  • in 1917.

  • The first generation of these Central Valley

  • vintners began with Lange's great-grandfather

  • who actually started with 135 acres of watermelons

  • in the Lodi area.

  • After success in the watermelon industry the

  • Lange family purchased a ranch nearby that came

  • with grapevines.

  • The decision was made to try both crops.

  • For many years, the family planted watermelons in

  • between the rows of grapes as they worked on

  • mastering the art of viticulture.

  • Since then, the farm has grown to approximately

  • 8,000 acres of wine grapes.

  • The 4.5 million vines produce 55,000 tons of

  • grapes annually.

  • Brad Lange, Co-Owner of LangeTwins: "So it is a

  • family run enterprise.

  • We were wine grape growers right up to about 2005,

  • 2006.

  • We made a decision to build our winery and so

  • it's a relatively new winery built over the last

  • nine years, by vertically integrating we are

  • ensuring, with that success, a

  • multi-generational farm family."

  • LangeTwins has three vineyards stretched across

  • two Central Valley counties.

  • The diverse locations have helped them in their four

  • year battle against the drought.

  • Brad Lange, Co-Owner of LangeTwins: "...the last

  • few years, three years, we have not had those heavy

  • spring rains that we typically have so there

  • isn't as much available rain water for the vine to

  • grow.

  • And so in the springtime, depending on the rainfall,

  • we just have to sit back and wait for the vine to

  • start running out of water.

  • Then we can start spoon feeding it with our drip

  • irrigation system.

  • So in that respect, we have an opportunity to

  • bring that vine into balance more quickly than

  • in a rainy year, like 1998, to where it was

  • raining heavily in June.

  • And so we have the opportunity to really

  • control the water that, the amount of water that

  • the vine will give.

  • So in that respect, the drought actually helps

  • us."

  • According to a study by the University of

  • California-Davis, the drought has already

  • rung-up $2.7 billion in damages due to lost crops,

  • livestock deaths, and increased payments for

  • pumping groundwater.

  • The whitepaper reveals an estimated 565,000 acres of

  • farmland will be fallowed due to severe drought, but

  • many viticulturists are thriving despite the harsh

  • conditions.

  • The Golden State ranks 1st in the nation for grape

  • production and 4th in the world for wine production,

  • behind Italy, France, and Spain.

  • But in the past few decades, California

  • winemakers have begun to see vintners in other

  • states bring out their own award winning vintages.

  • In the early 19th & 20th centuries many Midwestern

  • states dominated the grape industry with Iowa ranking

  • 6th in production.

  • The soaring success of wine production in the

  • Midwest was quickly stifled with the onset of

  • prohibition.

  • Farmers turned to growing grains and oil seeds to

  • make ends meet, leaving California the stand alone

  • source for grape growing.

  • Ardon Creek Vineyard and Winery located in Letts,

  • Iowa sprang from old family roots as well, but

  • like LangeTwins, this endeavor started with

  • different origins.

  • Mike Furlong, Owner of Ardon Creek: When I was

  • younger my father raised tomatoes for Heinz's when

  • they made Heinz's 57 Ketchup.

  • And so this farm was alive with people in the summer

  • and I just thought that was pretty neat.

  • And so, wine is an interesting endeavor and I

  • thought this is a little bit different than row

  • crop you know the proverbial corn and

  • soybeans, which are important certainly to the

  • Midwest but grapes were unique in wine making so

  • that's the road we followed.

  • Mike and Diane Furlong, majority owners of Ardon

  • Creek, planted their first set of vines back in 2004.

  • The couple finally finished their 4.1 acres

  • in 2008 and opened their winery doors in 2009.

  • This smaller scale operation reigns on the

  • 160 year old family farm that has been in Mike's

  • family for 5 generations.

  • Both Furlongs worked off the farm for years prior

  • to their interest in the wine industry taking root.

  • Ardon Creek has expanded into retail outlets

  • throughout Iowa and is licensed to ship product

  • to more than 20 states.

  • But no matter how successful, competition is

  • always present.

  • With approximately 100 wineries in Iowa alone,

  • competition can be a concern to owners.

  • To compete with wineries both state and nationwide,

  • wine producers such as Ardon Creek often enter

  • various competitions to gain credentials for their

  • wines.

  • Mike Furlong, Owner of Ardon Creek: "We won best

  • dry red in Ankeny, Iowa at the Mid-America wine

  • contest and even though we sell a lot of sweet to

  • people in Iowa, it's sort've the holy grail is

  • to have a good dry red and we won best.

  • And there were 80 wineries and 12 states involved in

  • that.

  • But I think it's important and it helps our wine

  • maker get feedback from professional judges and

  • we're very pleased with the direction we're going

  • and some of the results we're finding."

  • In addition to competition both nationally and

  • statewide, Iowa vintners are constantly fighting

  • misconceptions and stereotypes about what

  • their flavors produce.

  • Mike Furlong, Owner of Ardon Creek: "25 years ago

  • I was a wine snob, I got over it.

  • I though you needed to drink merlot, cabernet

  • sauvignon, or Chardonnay, and there are some people

  • you'll never dissuade from that position and that's

  • ok.

  • However, if you're a little bit more open

  • minded there are some great dry reds, dry whites

  • and certainly some sweet wines that are very

  • drinkable, you just gotta realize it doesn't taste

  • like a Malbec, Merlot, or Cabernet Sauvignon."

  • And as the heartland continues to move at full

  • steam, vintners like Lange are more than welcoming

  • towards Midwest competition.

  • Brad Lange, LangeTwins Winery: "We see them

  • introducing wine to people that never have had wine

  • before.

  • And over time they're just helping not only

  • themselves, but they're us.

  • So we embrace the development of the wine

  • industry throughout the states and we absolutely

  • don't see them as competitors but as

  • enhancing and enabling us to have success in the

  • marketplace.

  • For Market to Market, I'm Delaney Howell.

  • Next, the Market to Market report.

  • Worries over a stronger dollar, a weakening

  • Chinese market and cheap energy resulted in mostly

  • lower prices.

  • For the week, September wheat lost 7 cents.

  • The nearby corn contract was only a penny higher.

  • Soybean prices were volatile again this week

  • adding to the strong market reaction from the

  • August WASDE report.

  • The nearby soybean contract was 20 cents

  • lower.

  • December meal prices went sideways gaining only 40

  • cents per ton.

  • In the softs, December cotton continued its rally

  • rising nearly $1 per hundred weight.

  • Over in the dairy parlor, September Class III milk

  • futures gained 31 cents.

  • The livestock sector fell back this week with the

  • October cattle contract declining $3.

  • October feeders dropped $10.05.

  • And the October lean hog contract lost $2.52.

  • In the currency markets, the U.S.

  • Dollar Index fell more than 1.5%.

  • Oil slumped $2.66 for the week ending the trading

  • session at a six and a half year low.

  • COMEX Gold gained $46.90 per ounce.

  • And the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index lost

  • nearly 18 points to settle at 348.35.

  • Pearson: Here now to lend us her insight on these

  • and other trends is one of regular market analysts,

  • Naomi Blohm.

  • Naomi, welcome back.

  • Blohm: Hi.

  • Thanks, Mike.

  • Pearson: It was a very volatile week both in the

  • commodities and the equity markets.

  • When we see a 1,000 point drop like we've seen so

  • far in August in the Dow Jones, is that an

  • indication to you that maybe money would come out

  • of that and move into some of these other

  • commodities?

  • Or what does that tell you about the commodity

  • markets?

  • Blohm: We are hoping that the money that is coming

  • out of the stock market goes to the commodities.

  • If you look at how that Goldman Sachs Index had

  • been trading, it was inverse to the stock

  • market for the past year.

  • So now with the money coming out of stocks

  • usually it does come to the commodities and then

  • we'll hopefully see things at least maybe start to

  • materialize and hold firm and then as soon as we get

  • some friendly news maybe we'll really get some

  • market momentum behind it.

  • Pearson: Once we can get a story going maybe get some

  • of this money on the buy side.

  • Blohm: Right.

  • Pearson: Well, now speaking of getting a

  • story going, it seems like we've been waiting for

  • quite some time to get an export story going in this

  • wheat market.

  • Is one starting to develop?

  • Blohm: Not really yet.

  • We just haven't had the news to justify it by any

  • means.

  • The bigger thing with wheat right now is that

  • the spring wheat harvest is coming along just fine,

  • it's ahead of schedule, not any big quality issues

  • there.

  • And then also around the world still not any big

  • stories yet.

  • What we are keeping an eye on though is in Argentina.

  • They had a really wet planting season and so

  • their crop is expected to be a little lower.

  • And then of course we're keeping an eye on El Nino,

  • which continues to develop and be strong.

  • So maybe later in the year it makes a story for dry

  • conditions in Australia or India.

  • However, there's just nothing to talk about.

  • And because of that, the Chicago market might see

  • the price range, at the lowest my opinion would be

  • $4.75 and then to $5 but I think we start to see the

  • market just slowly trudge a little lower and we sit

  • and wait for some news.

  • Pearson: So generally a tight range that we're

  • pretty close to the top of here at $4.99 and change.

  • Blohm: Right.

  • Pearson: Okay.

  • Now as we jump down into the corn market, we did

  • see some stability this week.

  • We've had two weeks now of relative stability.

  • What does that tell you about the corn market?

  • What should producers be looking for?

  • Blohm: Corn has done a great job of saying we

  • don't believe what the USDA is telling us as far

  • as the yield goes and it showed that this week.

  • The one bit of caution would be that today on the

  • market charts it posted a bearish reversal and so to

  • me it means that prices might work a little bit

  • lower here.

  • I would say in the next two to three weeks we see

  • the corn price for December futures stay

  • between $3.60 and $3.75, real quiet, tight range.

  • Pro Farmer did come out though with their final

  • numbers and they put that corn yield at 164.3, which

  • is lower than that USDA number of 168 and I think

  • more realistic.

  • And just keep in mind that with corn when that market

  • price hit $4.50 on the December futures earlier

  • in the summer that is when the market was trading 163

  • yield.

  • So I feel really strongly that the market is going

  • to probably just trade sideways, a little bit

  • lower, sometimes it grinds lower throughout

  • September.

  • But there still is enough unknown out there that

  • we're going to probably see it not fall too much

  • lower.

  • Pearson: Until we start to see what the combines are

  • bringing in, do you think there's opportunity

  • post-harvest for some sales at hopefully a

  • little better pricing?

  • Blohm: I do.

  • I'm still optimistic.

  • Earlier this spring I thought we would see that

  • market bounce.

  • Now we're at the point where we had the

  • opportunity and now it's going to take a little bit

  • of time again but I think it's coming.

  • Something to keep in mind though with corn is that

  • the exports are really behind as far as the new

  • crop goes.

  • We're only at 12% and we should be at 25% for this

  • time of year.

  • So if we don't see that pick up at harvest then

  • that's one thing where the USDA might be comfortable

  • saying, oh you're right, the yield is lower but now

  • we have this export demand out there and keeps the

  • ending stocks at a wash.

  • Pearson: Okay.

  • Now let's jump into the soybean market, second big

  • down week in a row, 20 cents this week.

  • Are we getting close to a bottom?

  • Blohm: No.

  • No.

  • It's kind of unfortunate.

  • Pro Farmer did confirm the USDA yields that that 46

  • number is probably accurate.

  • The one silver lining that might come out of this is

  • that the planted acres, as far as the prevent plant

  • and all of that, probably still does need to come

  • down.

  • But, as we know, the USDA it might take them a year

  • to admit it.

  • So, with that in mind, with the market closing

  • below $9 support levels the shorter-term downtrend

  • I'd say the next two weeks maybe $8.75.

  • You could argue $8.50 but, again, it's just a little

  • too premature for the market to really crash.

  • We've got harvest coming up pretty soon in the

  • southern states so we'll want to wait and see what

  • that does before the market price really

  • tumbles, but probably see it just a little bit

  • negative over the next couple of weeks.

  • Pearson: With the downside risk that really sounds

  • like is apparent here to listen to you, should

  • producers be out in front of this thing making some

  • sales up in here close to $9 if they can get it?

  • Blohm: I would say so now, just again because the Pro

  • Farmer Tour did confirm that the yields are likely

  • there and we haven't had a lot of weather stress to

  • justify it or signify otherwise.

  • So I think I would, especially if you're in a

  • position where you need the cash flow and you

  • can't store it, I think I would use this as an

  • opportunity to sell.

  • Pearson: Okay.

  • Well now as our native Wisconsonian here with us

  • I'd like to take the chance to discuss the

  • dairy markets.

  • We did see a little bit of an upside, 31 cents to the

  • upside in Class III milk.

  • What is causing that to buck the bearish trend?

  • Are we getting some good news?

  • Blohm: Yes, finally.

  • This week we had good news from the global dairy

  • trade auction and they increased their index

  • number by 14.9 percentage points, which was the

  • first increase that they had shown since March.

  • And that's a big deal because finally they were

  • able to say that demand had picked up for the

  • powder market, for the cheddar markets, the

  • butter markets and so that is what pushed the market

  • price higher.

  • And then we actually had confirmation of increased

  • cash sales for the butter and for the powder and

  • then the futures markets in those rallied as well.

  • So market to me is now done going lower and we

  • see milk stabilize between $16.50 and $17.50 for a

  • little while.

  • But we did have another report with milk this

  • week.

  • The July production numbers came out and said

  • that production is up 1.2% from a year ago.

  • So even though the California production is

  • lower, Michigan and other states made up for it, so

  • we have, again, no supply issue but finally demand

  • is picking up.

  • Pearson: U.S.

  • producers are still making those cows milk,

  • gangbusters.

  • Blohm: Yes they are.

  • Pearson: Well now let's jump into the livestock

  • markets.

  • We saw a pretty broad step back here on both live and

  • feeder cattle futures.

  • Let's talk this live market first.

  • Are we getting close to finding a bottom?

  • Or is this another grind lower situation?

  • Blohm: I think we're at the bottom now.

  • October futures have really solid support at

  • $143 and the perception, I think we've traded, we

  • were importing so much more and the exports are

  • down, I think that is old news.

  • So going forward though we're looking for an

  • increase in demand heading into fourth quarter.

  • So that's probably going to keep that

  • October/December contract firm overall.

  • And the cattle on feed report today was actually

  • neutral, so not any big issues one way or the

  • other as expected and just need to make sure that we

  • can see the demand pick up like we're anticipating.

  • I would say though if we have rallies it probably

  • is an opportunity to be making sales.

  • Pearson: And would you, again, be a pretty far out

  • in the deferred month's seller?

  • Blohm: I think I would just again because that

  • longer term perception is changing.

  • So this is your equivalent of the $8 corn, $7 corn

  • slide and make sure you capitalize on it.

  • Pearson: Okay.

  • Now same question as we look at the feeder cattle

  • market.

  • $10 selloff this week.

  • What does this look like in the short-term?

  • Blohm: Still negative actually.

  • And the perception there too is that with the live

  • cattle being lower, the feeder cattle are going to

  • grind lower and that there's going to be

  • increases in supply coming.

  • So obviously we know it's a slow increase.

  • But, again, that perception is all that

  • matters.

  • Technically speaking in the past two weeks the

  • feeder cattle futures broke their short-term

  • uptrend and then they were sitting on that like 200

  • even support level which failed.

  • So now technically the downside is $180 but that

  • is the long-term uptrend.

  • I do though think that we'll probably see that

  • market drift lower in the coming months.

  • Nothing quick but just a slow grind lower because

  • the fundamentals have just shifted enough.

  • Pearson: Okay.

  • A lot of calves being held back, a lot of cows being

  • retained.

  • Blohm: Mm-hmm.

  • Pearson: Now, as we jump into the hog market, we

  • ended the week down $2.52 and livestock slaughter

  • said July was the highest pork production month in

  • history.

  • So we clearly have growing numbers.

  • Where can this market find some stability?

  • Blohm: I think it is actually finding the

  • stability now.

  • Earlier in August we had some strong demand and

  • that was evident in the cutouts and that's why

  • that August contract was so strong.

  • But now the October market and the December

  • contracts, they were appropriately holding back

  • on the perception that fourth quarter production

  • was going to be increasing.

  • And so it is already priced into the market.

  • Seasonally also demand starts to pick up a little

  • bit too.

  • And what we have to really watch for with the hogs

  • right now for the October/December contract,

  • we need to make sure that that market can stay over

  • 60 and what we have to watch is the hams and how

  • the ham movement goes.

  • That is the bigger factor right now.

  • And this afternoon's cold storage report showed that

  • the ham inventories were actually large.

  • So it wasn't quite the information we were hoping

  • for.

  • However, we still have a lot of time to work that

  • through the pipeline and system.

  • I'm kind of curious with turkeys being so expensive

  • this year maybe people won't' do as much for

  • Thanksgiving and do some other proteins.

  • So something to keep in mind.

  • Pearson: Well, great.

  • Naomi Blohm, thank you so much.

  • Blohm: Thank you.

  • Pearson: That wraps up this edition of Market to

  • Market.

  • But Naomi and I will continue our discussion

  • and answer some of your questions in our Market

  • Plus segment available on our website.

  • You'll also find audio podcasts of our discussion

  • as well as streaming video of our program exclusively

  • at that Market to Market website.

  • You can also interact with us through our Twitter and

  • Facebook feeds.

  • And join us again when we'll check in on a

  • growing industry that's all up in the air.

  • So until next time, thanks for watching.

  • I'm Mike Pearson.

  • Have a great week.

  • ♪♪

  • Market to Market is a production of Iowa

  • Public Television which is solely responsible for its

  • content.

  • Funding for Market to Market is provided by

  • Grinnell Mutual.

  • You think differently about a customer when you

  • stand in the middle of his dreams.

  • We work to make sure you get covered right.

  • Grinnell Mutual -- a policy of working

  • together.

  • Information on finding an agent near you is

  • available at grinnellmutual.com.

  • And by Sukup Manufacturing Company.

  • Offering a full line of grain drying and storage

  • equipment and steel buildings, Sukup

  • Manufacturing is on a mission to protect and

  • preserve your crop and the tools that produce it.

Coming up on Market to Market - Wildfires leave

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