Name: If Hormuz stays shut, who really wins? | DW News
Uploaded: 2026-03-31T17:00:09.000Z
Duration: 15 min 50 s
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I find myself yet again thinking about the Strait of Hormuz.

What if the United States could end this war with Iran without reopening the most important oil chokepoint on Earth?

There seems to be a striking shift in Washington's strategy.

The Wall Street Journal suggests Donald Trump is now willing to wind down the conflict with Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz stays partially closed.

Again, the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil.

The waterway Iran effectively shut down after the U.S. and Israel started this war.

Is this a sign the war has achieved its real objectives, or that those objectives have quietly changed?

forces are still building up in the region,

and military options, from seizing islands to clearing mines, remain very much on the table.

And if Hormuz stays shut, who really wins?

Before we get there, a quick reminder to ourselves of the geography here, because it's key to what's going on now and what might happen later.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with Iran to the north.

And at its narrowest point, it's only around 33 kilometers wide.

Unless you've been living under a rock for the last month, you know this is now a central flashpoint in the conflict because 20 percent of the world's oil normally flows right through there.

But that's not happening right now because Iran has effectively closed Hormuz.

Check out all those colored symbols gathered together just to the left of that high bend there.

And according to the International Maritime Organization, somewhere between 2,000 and 3,200 vessels are trapped in the Gulf to the west of the strait.

The knock-on effect, the growing global energy shock that's now impacting the markets and the cost of gas for so many around the world, including in the U.S.

Malcolm Davis, senior military analyst at ASPI, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, who's going to help us unpack what this moment tells us about how this war might actually end.

First, let's talk about how the Strait of Hormuz is operating right now.

If you had a 24/7 bird's-eye view of the strait, how would you describe the comings and goings?

If you looked at your map on the Persian Gulf side of the strait, all those ships are bottled up.

On the Gulf of Oman side, likewise, you have ships that can't get through the strait.

The Iranians are allowing the occasional ship to go through from countries that are friendly to Iran, such as China.

And as a result, 20 percent of the world's oil supplies have been cut off.

And that's creating economic chaos around the world.

According to the Iranian news agency, Iran's parliament has approved plans to charge a toll to ships passing through the strait.

Is this war making Iran stronger and richer?

Well, that toll is being charged in Chinese yuan.

But certainly, Iran would benefit economically if countries were prepared to pay that toll.

And I think it basically boils down to extortion.

So the international community should not accept paying a toll in Chinese yuan to go through the Strait of Hormuz, which, after all, is international waters.

I wonder, at this point, is military action the only option to open the strait?

Certainly, there's no indication whatsoever that diplomacy is succeeding.

The Trump administration is saying that it is having very successful diplomatic negotiations with the Iranians.

But there's no evidence to the effect that that is actually the case.

And certainly, both the United States and Iran have put forward positions that are equally unacceptable to either side.

So, unfortunately, the way I see it is that we are locked in for military action to force open the strait.

That'll take a very long time, probably weeks, if not months, to actually achieve that.

And part of that could involve the deployment of ground forces.

If Hormuz is no longer a benchmark, an objective for the U.S., what does winning actually look like in this war?

Are we seeing objectives quietly being rewritten mid-conflict?

Unfortunately, the reality is that I don't see how the Trump administration can somehow justify or claim victory when the Strait of Hormuz is shut.

Because, after all, that still would see Iran with a chokehold on international oil, an ability to effectively coerce countries around the world by cutting off their oil.

I don't see how that equates to a U.S. victory.

After all, what you now have is not regime change in Tehran, but

an intensified, increasingly rigid and extremist regime that have come to power in Tehran.

You have Iran still possessing significant portions of missile capabilities.

Yes, the Americans have destroyed the Iranian Air Force and Navy.

But the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy is still largely in existence.

And there's the real concern about Iranian acquisition of enriched uranium that could give them nuclear weapons.

So all these factors, together with the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, does not equate to a U.S.

pulls out at this point and tries to claim victory effectively, they're accepting that their Operation Epic Fury has, in fact, failed.

There's been so much talk about the U.S.'s objectives because, well, I mean, it's war.

And the public usually demands clearly articulated reasons that will allow them to support the war.

But it's also because people are trying to make sense of the mixed messaging from the White House.

On Monday, Trump posted this on Truth Social: "If for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and

if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately open for business, we will conclude our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells, and

cargo and possibly all desalination plants, which we have purposely not yet touched." Aggressive words about the reopening of the strait.

But here's his White House spokesperson just hours later briefing the media about U.S. objectives.

With respect to the timeline, again, the president, commander in chief, the Pentagon has always stated four to six weeks estimated timeline for Operation Epic Fury.

So, again, you do the math on how much longer the Pentagon needs to fully achieve the objectives of Operation Epic Fury, which I will reiterate: destroy the Iranian Navy, destroy their ballistic missiles, dismantle their missile and drone production infrastructure, significantly weaken their proxies throughout the course of this operation,

and then, of course, preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.

No mention about ending Tehran's stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

Whatever the goals are for this White House, Malcolm, if the U.S.

ends the war before the strait is reopened, who really wins?

If that happens, then I would argue that Iran wins because they have effectively kept hold of the Strait of Hormuz, denied it to the rest of the world.

Yes, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed.

But his son has now been put into his place.

And the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, really now runs the show in Tehran.

I think that, yes, the Americans have destroyed the Iranian Navy and the Iranian Air Force.

And they've destroyed a substantial portion of Iranian missile and drone capabilities.

They've been building missiles and drones for years.

And so I would argue that it's likely that the Iranians still have substantial missile and drone stockpiles.

And finally, there's that nuclear question, that enriched uranium, up to 600 kilograms of enriched uranium, potentially that could be easily converted into nuclear weapons.

So I'm struggling to see how the Americans claim this as a win, and

particularly if the Iranians keep the Strait of Hormuz closed after the Americans withdraw.

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If Hormuz stays shut, who really wins? | DW News

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