Name: United Airlines CEO on Demand, Oil Prices and TSA Lines
Uploaded: 2026-03-25T21:33:37.000Z
Duration: 10 min 18 s
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I am here in Los Angeles with the CEO of United Airlines, Scott Kirby.

There is an incredible airline behind us, there are incredible exhibits here.

Past simple

We would be talking about all these new planes that United just bought,

but instead the world has sent some other things.

I really want to start with this question of how you plan for the future, with a backdrop that is probably the most uncertain for airlines in particular since COVID.

Well, thanks for having me, Lisa, and I love the United blue, but.

You know, really the way we plan is being prepared in advance.

And when we came out of COVID, I made a commitment to our employees.

I was going to do everything possible to put United in a position where we never again furlough employees, which has happened over decades multiple times at United.

And to do that, we knew there was some industry crisis to come.

I didn't know what it was that would eventually come,

but we're carrying triple the cash on the balance sheet that we had pre-COVID.

We've moved to the top of the industry in terms of margins,

and we have the best credit rating that we've had in over 30 years.

And what that does is give us the financial resources to look to the other side of the crisis, to continue investing in airplanes like this, to continue a full-speed investing in the future while we make tactical adjustments in the short term,

but have the financial resources that we can look through the crisis to the recovery on the other side.

Last week we heard from American, we heard from Delta.

They were talking about even upgrading their forecasts for the year, saying that consumer demand was so strong it could overcome whatever short-term shock this is.

Why do you think it's not going to be that short-term and not that moderate?

So first, I have to say I say exactly the same thing about demand.

The top ten booking weeks of the year have all been in 2026 so far.

So demand is incredibly strong right now.

But I do think that oil prices are I think they're higher for longer.

It's reasonable for us to plan for that regardless, because the downside is pretty limited.

We leave a little bit of demand on the table by not flying quite as much this summer.

But it gives us more optionality on the other side for the recovery.

And so we're really focused on what the recovery is going to look like.

And I think our forecast of oil going to 175 and staying through up to 100 through the end of next year is reasonable.

I hope it's better, and there's a good chance it's better.

And planning and preparing for that really lets us come out stronger as we go through it and on the other side.

You've talked about how you're cutting about 5% of capacity, in particular in the Middle East and some of the routes there, in order to reduce capacity, preserve margins.

Or if prices go even higher, do you expect that to actually be an even bigger cut to capacity?

We'll watch and see what happens, particularly with demand.

If our forecast of fuel prices is correct, then my guess is there's going to be an impact to the economy as well.

And I hope not, but we'll watch that as it goes along.

But what we're doing right now really is taking out flying that is pretty marginal, even in good times.

And when oil prices double, it would lose money.

And so there's just no point in flying flights that are going to lose money that can't cover the cost of fuel.

We'll be nimble and see what happens with prices and demand.

The Middle East has been an area of expansion for a while.

I know that a number of the airlines have really been moving heavily into the region.

Are you adjusting any of your thinking longer term as a result of the conflict and potentially how long it could go on?

But I would guess that when this is over, that places like Dubai come back 100%.

But I would bet on Dubai for the long term.

Going forward, you've talked about how you want to take advantage of this time, how you see this as a crisis not unlike what we saw during the pandemic,

and that you'd be even interested in potentially picking up some assets.

So first, I don't think it's a crisis like COVID, but it's going to be a stress event.

That's the word I use more, is stress event for the industry if our fuel forecast is right.

But it's nowhere near the magnitude of what happened in COVID.

And in a stress event like that, I want us to be we start in the strongest position.

I want us to be consistently ahead of the curve.

Every time there's something happening, I want us to be first, let everyone else follow.

And if we when we're doing that, you know, it's and others take longer to adjust, it is going to amp up the stress on them.

Many of them start with weak income statements, weak balance sheets.

And we'll be there to pick up some of those assets,

But we'll be there to pick up some of those assets as we go through the crisis.

Wholesale acquisition of a company or just piece by piece?

Going forward, I'm curious also, there's been questions about hedging against oil prices.

I know a lot of the airlines have really moved away from that because it hasn't been profitable.

Delta has a refinery investment that has helped somewhat to offset some of these costs.

Do you have any plans around that in any capacity?

You know, it's we're so big, it's hard to effectively hedge.

It's really hard to hedge the crack spread.

You know, oil prices have gone up, the crack spread has gone up even more.

I actually tried to do a deal with Adnoc years ago when I was at American,

and it foundered over a force majeure clause where they wanted for it would have just been a swap.

Foundered over a force majeure where they said, well, we need a force majeure.

And I said, well, that's the whole point.

That's when I want your hedge, and you can't get out of it.

So it's just really hard for us to hedge.

Meanwhile, if this were the only crisis you'd be dealing with, probably you'd be watching this clearly,

There is also this question around all of the scenes that we see in social media, etc., of TSA lines getting longer and longer.

Have you noticed people missing their flights?