Name: Iran attacks on Gulf states part of ‘strategy of chaos’ to pressure US into ceasefire: Analyst
Uploaded: 2026-03-12T21:32:35.000Z
Duration: 6 min 2 s
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Let's discuss the latest developments now with Bob Gates Pinfold, who's a lecturer in International Security at King's College London.

Thank you, Rob, for being with us once again.

Let's start with the message from the new Supreme Leader of Iran, the first one since he was appointed.

It was a defiant one, a defiant tone, especially on the Strait of Hormuz, which he says will remain closed.

What do you make of that and what does it indicate about the direction in which Iran wants to take this conflict?

Words that stood out for me were ones like revenge, destroy, for example.

It was very much a reiteration of Iran's existing messages.

There was, to be frank, very, very little new under the sun here.

Iran has already announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed.

The new Supreme Leader said that it will continue to be closed.

He continued to parrot the line that Iran seeks friendly relations with GCC states and it's not targeting civilian assets there, only US military bases.

And of course we know, as you discussed with your previous guest, that the GCC state specifically asked the US not to use those bases to attack Iran.

The Iranians are saying, including the guests I had previously, that attacks are being launched from, from, you know, bases in this region, from U.S.

We do know the GCC countries demanded before the war that the US not use their bases to, to attack Iran.

There was an evacuation of US personnel, for example, from the Al Udeid base in Qatar.

That wasn't just because they were expecting retaliation.

It's out of expectation that they couldn't use that base to attack Iran.

So the GCC states really stuck their necks out here in trying to not give Iran any legitimacy or any excuse to attack them.

And nevertheless, Iran did still attack them.

It not only attacked countries with whom it's long had difficult relations, for example, Saudi Arabia, it attacked every single GCC state, including those that really tried to mediate until the very last minute, including Oman, including Qatar, for example.

So this is all part of Iran's broader strategy of chaos.

It's basically trying to push for a ceasefire by causing so much chaos, so much instability, that the US has perceives this conflict as no longer in its interests and it's willing to burn its bridges with any and all Gulf states in order to pursue that very high risk strategy.

And looking at the battlefield today, Rob, is there, is either side, you think, closer to achieving a decisive outcome, or are we entering a phase of this conflict that's going to be basically a deadlock?

I mean, we don't know exactly what the ultimate goal is for the US but what does it say about where we are at this time of the conflict?

Well, we of course, do not know what is going on behind the scenes.

Shortly before the new Supreme Leader's recorded speech, we heard Anwar Gargashi, influential UAE presidential adviser, saying that a breakthrough was in reach.

Well, there's quite a disconnect between that optimistic projection and the speech by the new supreme leader which is around.

Could it be that breakthrough between Gulf countries and Iran?

Because again, we've heard the Iranian supreme leader say that, you know, these are brothers, these are regional countries, we want good relations with them.

we've heard that time and time again, we've heard Iranian, the Iranian president say that they apologize for attacking the Gulf states whilst Iran continued to attack the Gulf states.

We've heard the Iranian foreign minister claim that it was wrong to do so and to apologize.

We've heard Iranian claims that Mossad cells have been arrested in these Gulf states, when in fact Iraq IRGC cells have been arrested within these Gulf states.

We heard today Iran deny that it had attacked Oman, despite the fact that shahed drones landed in Oman or were sent towards Oman.

So, frankly, none of this is plausible anymore.

One is that the Iranian regime has lost control over its own forces, or that it's complicit in this strategy of chaos and is simply lying through its teeth.

Neither of those potential explanations are promising for Iran's continued relations with the Gulf states.

It's fair to say, yeah, and Iran said it wants good relations with the Gulf states.

Do you, do you see those relations getting back to where they were when this conflict ends?

Well, the Gulf states know they have no choice but to have some kind of dialogue with Iran.

This is normally any kind of situation like this.

For example, you know, looking at the Israeli front, you saw that Israel pass messages between themselves and Hezbollah, between themselves and Hamas before the recent confrontation.

So we'll probably have a similar scenario where there are still channels open between the Gulf states and Iran, though I think it's fair to say, and

you guys in Doha will probably know better than I, that there is now very much no love lost between the Gulf states and Iran, not just Gulf leaders, but

There is a real feeling that this is not their war.

They are not legitimate targets, and particularly their civilians are not legitimate targets.

But Iran continues to pound and target GCC cities from Riyadh to Doha and everything in between.

Rob Gay Spinfoil joining us there from London.