Name: Kornacki explains how Georgia special election led to runoff
Uploaded: 2026-03-11T23:04:16.000Z
Duration: 4 min 57 s
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I want to bring in NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki over at the big board.

Steve, this, this is a lot of, a lot of buildup, a lot of computing.

And then all of a sudden we have a result very, very quickly.

Are you surprised at the numbers that we're seeing so far?

I think a little bit for, for two reasons.

Look, I mean, Clay Fuller, the Trump endorsed candidate here, I think there was an expectation certainly he was the favorite among Republicans to be the top Republican vote getter.

But I think the distance between Fuller and the other republic here, you know, Colton Moore was sort of seen as the top rival to Fuller.

It's not even close between the two of them.

I mean, you can see here Fuller, you know, about 34% of the vote, more barely over 10% here district wide.

So I think the power of that Trump endorsement to really unify the Republicans around Clay Fuller.

Again, Fuller had run for this seat a couple years ago, no Trump endorsement.

Turns around, now gets the Trump endorsement.

I mean, it's the power of that Trump endorsement here.

I think again, looking here, Sean Harris, the distinct possibility, Sean Harris, a Democrat, finishes tonight with the most votes.

He will be the prohibitive underdog in the runoff.

This is a district Trump won by 37 points, but Harris really consolidating the Democratic vote.

And there are some places in this district where in particular Harris has dramatically.

And Democrats, I think, have dramatically overperformed.

I think that's in line with a story we've been talking about here in this second Trump term, Gotti, where the Democratic base, Democratic voters are, are very energized.

And I would say that the results are still incomplete from this county up here, Whitfield county, where Dalton is.

But this county is interesting because it has one of the highest shares of Hispanic voters of any county in Georgia.

And currently at least Harris is overperforming.

Harris, the Democrat, is overperforming more here than in any other county in this district relative to 2024.

Again, there are still some results to come, but

these numbers have been getting our attention from Whitfield county tonight.

Yeah, it's, it's tough to know what's going on because as you said, 2024, 37 points is, I mean, you could make some gains, but

are you making 37 points worth of gains is the big question.

And for those that aren't, you know, into the, into the weeds with the numbers, they're going to be tuning in and they're going to be like, wait a minute, Sean Harris, 39%.

Can you just explain like the craziness of the jungle primary for those that don't live in a jungle primary state here?

Yeah, I mean, it's a special election to Congress, so it's a little bit different here.

But everybody, Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Independent, they all run on the same ballot.

If nobody gets a majority, 50% plus one, top two advance.

And so I think the easiest way to think about this is there were a couple of Democratic candidates who ran, but

Harris is getting about 95% of the Democratic vote.

Okay, so Democrats are outnumbered in this district in a big way.

But Harris is getting almost all of the Democrats who voted in today's election.

Meanwhile, Fuller, the Trump backed candidate, who's going to be the other candidate in this runoff?

He's getting the most Republican votes of any of these Republicans.

He's getting about 60% of the Republican votes.

Fuller's only getting 60% of them tonight.

So that could be enough for Harris to finish first.

But if all those Republicans, not even all of them, but

if just most of those Republicans unify around Fuller in the runoff, he's the clear favorite.

Although what so far, based on the numbers that you've seen, do you think that this is somewhat of a referendum on, on the president right now?

I think it's telling you two things though, right?

It's telling you that the Republican base still, you know, that Trump endorsement decisive in this race, I think clearly decisive.

So among, you know, Republican voters in that Republican universe, you know, that clout that Trump has very much this result, I think is very much telling you it's still very much a thing.

But we're also seeing, this has been another story since Trump came back to the White House.

Energy among Democratic voters, interest in elections, participation in elections.

We're seeing evidence here in these results.

We're seeing Democratic energy there too.

So I think it's telling you something about the nature of both party bases right now.

Elevated public engagement, political engagement all around.

Steve Kornacki at the Big Board, our favorite place.

And remember, stay updated on breaking news and top stories on the NBC News app or watch live on our YouTube channel.