Name: Kornacki: Race to fill fmr. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat likely going to a runoff
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If it's Tuesday, voters are voting somewhere and today those somewheres are Mississippi and Georgia, where there's a very crowded special election to fill former Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene seat.

Meanwhile, in Mississippi, incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde Smith is facing a challenger in her primary.

And on the Democratic side, it's a generational battle as incumbent Congressman Bennie Thompson, who recently turned 78, faces a primary challenge from 34 year old Evan Turn, a former Senate aide.

Joining me now is NBC chief data analyst Steve Kornacki.

And Aaron Gilchrist is on the ground in Georgia.

Steve, it is quite the field of candidates.

So is it even possible to avoid a runoff here?

Yeah, it's possible, but certainly not likely.

Look, this is a top two primary, they call it, right?

You see the three sort of leading names right here.

But we could keep scrolling down and go all the way down to 17 different names, 17 active candidates here.

And the way this works is they're all in the ballot, Republicans, Democrats, there's Libertarians, Independents.

Whoever finishes in the top two slots advances to a runoff in April.

Unless somebody gets 50% plus one, an outright majority wins tonight.

I think the dynamics to keep an eye on as the results come in.

First thing to remember, of course, this is an overwhelmingly Republican district.

Marjorie Taylor Greene had won by nearly 30 points in her final election.

Donald Trump won this district by 37 points.

Now, this Democrat right here, Sean Harris, he was the opponent that Greene faced in 2024.

He's got, he's raised a ton of money nationally for this race.

And it seems like he's probably largely consolidated the Democratic vote in this district.

So while this is overwhelmingly a Republican district, if Harris can sort of monopolize the Democratic vote in the incredibly crowded race like that, he could get one of those two runoff spots.

There's even a world tonight where maybe Harris could finish with the most votes of any candidate tonight.

But again, something to keep in mind, part of that is because he may consolidate the Democratic vote, whereas the Republican vote is going to be split up.

And I think the suspense and the drama when it comes to that Republican vote is around these two candidates right here, Clay Fuller and Colton Moore.

Clay Fuller is the candidate endorsed by Donald Trump.

He barely registered in the Republican primary, but he's got Trump's endorsement.

And sometimes that's all it takes in one of these primaries and then there's Colton Moore.

He certainly had some very provocative antics.

He's been aligned with a lot of MAGA figures.

I think he was certainly thinking he would get the Trump endorsement in this campaign, but

So can his sort of MAGA style work without the ultimate MAGA endorsement from Donald Trump?

But I think those two Republicans here vying for maybe one of those spots.

But again, whoever emerges overwhelmingly Republican district still, big day for the big board.

Thank you so much, Steve, for breaking it down.

Erin, I want to turn to you since you are in former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene's district today.

She hasn't weighed in right on the race to replace her, but

the president did endorse Clay Fuller, as Steve just pointed out.

You know, I think Steve laid the foundation here very nicely, Monica.

Clay Fuller believes that this endorsement from President Trump is really going to be helpful, very helpful in helping him to get to a place where he is closer to winning this election.

Steve laid out why we think that a runoff is very likely here.

Just the math seems to suggest that that's going to happen, given that there are so many people on the ballot in this district right now.

But Clay Fuller told me that he does feel like he is the one with the wind behind him, helping him to get to a good place after tonight.

I want you to hear part of our exchange a little earlier today.

I feel like I'm the most dangerous candidate in the race with the president's endorsement.

So we're just making sure that we're driving out the boat here today, trying to contact as many voters as we can.

Let me ask you, since you brought up the president's endorsement, how significant do you feel like that is?

How much do you feel like that's been helpful for you?

Not only is it the honor of my lifetime because I worked for President Trump in the first Trump administration as a Trump appointee, but

I know going out and talking to voters across the district, one of the main things that they were concerned about when this race first started was where the president was going to be.

Now, I can tell you that the people here that we've spoken to already today have seemed to indicate that Clay Fuller is their choice because he's gotten this Trump endorsement.

And also, if you sort of listen to him talk, people like him because he's not like Donald Trump.

So there's definitely a clear desire to have Trump policies.

But the temperament, maybe, Monica, is something that some voters in this area have indicated they're not necessarily wanting to see in the person that they choose.

That's why they backed Fuller in this case.

But of course, Colton Moore is a contender and somebody that folks are voting for.

We've spoken to some people here who did vote for him, and

we're going to get a chance to talk to him in just a couple of minutes here.

Aaron, tell me more about those voter conversations.

What issues are they saying that are driving them to the polls today?

And is the war against Iran weighing on their decision at all?

Yes, it's a conversation that we've had with a few people that we've spoken to here.

Folks who have been supporting Republicans do support President Trump in a big way, and

they've spoken about their support for what he's doing in Iran.

There's been some conversation with folks who are a bit uncomfortable with the reality of needing to take that action in Iran, but

they do feel as though the president has made the case for why that need, that action is needed.

Listen to some of the voters we talked to a little while ago.

I heard that he was trying to make the bomb and he's trying to stop that.

If you get picked on enough in school, sooner or later you get mad.

And I just sort of feel like we've been picked on enough and I guess our president decided he'd had enough.

I would just like there to be some return on investment for our time if we do anything in another nation.

That would be my primary hopes because it's not really a moral or an ethical question.

It's an ROI question, unfortunately for the taxpayer.

And I think it's worth mentioning that we're seeing that support for President Trump from voters.

And each of the 12 Republicans that are in this race have indicated that they are essentially aligned with the president too, saying that they support an America first agenda.

And so, Monica, it could very well come down to style when we see who the Republican is that rises to the top today.

Fascinating and always important to get those voter voices.

And remember, stay updated on breaking news and top stories on the NBC News app or watch live on our YouTube channel.