Name: How is the Iran war affecting Ukraine? | DW News
Uploaded: 2026-03-05T17:12:22.000Z
Duration: 8 min 11 s
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What does this attack on Bahrain have to do with this attack on Kyiv?

It's about Iran's attack drones, the shaheds.

They're being used by Iran against its neighbors and Russia against Ukraine.

Iran created these cheap, effective drones and has long been selling them to Russia.

Russia has launched tens of thousands of Iranian supplied shahed attack drones since its full scale invasion began four years ago, raining them down on Ukrainian cities.

Now Iran is using shaheds to hit places like Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, even sending them as far as Cyprus.

So if Iran is now using its drones against its neighbors instead of sending them to Russia, that'll be a problem from Moscow and good for Ukraine, right?

I think that would have been a bigger problem earlier on in this war when Russia was getting most of its shahed drones either directly from Iran or if they were being manufactured in Russia, it was basically with kit that it all come in from Iran.

Now basically there is a copy and a Russian version of this technology.

Most of the spare parts they do come from outside, come from China.

So I think Russia is unlikely to notice much of a difference there.

They've really been able to ramp up production.

Russia was also receiving smaller parties deliveries of ballistic missiles for shorter ranges, but

those were kind of in the low hundreds compared to what Russia has in terms of domestic production.

So I think Russia will basically be able to carry on pretty much irrespective.

Right now, the Shahad drones that are pitting places like Kyiv, where I am now, are basically a Russian product.

But it's not only about whether Russia needs Iran to supply its drones.

The war in Iran actually poses real risks to Ukraine in its defense against Russia.

Spiking energy prices are one real source of concern.

Iran has attacked oil and natural gas facilities in neighboring countries.

Qatar has shut down a plant that produces much of the liquefied natural gas used in Europe.

About one fifth of the world's oil travels through it from producers to consumers.

That helps Russia, whose economy is heavily dependent on its oil exports.

Prices had been low enough to hit the Kremlin, where it hurts in the pocketbook, but.

But now that looks set to change in a significant way.

This couldn't have come at a better time for Vladimir Putin.

The Russian budget was really struggling.

The central government was going after Ordinary people who weren't paying enough taxes.

You had local government saying they were unable to meet their social obligations, government companies unable to service their debt, all because oil was basically just much too cheap.

The Russian budget was expecting to get about $59, $60 per barrel of Russian oil this year.

But given all the discounts that Russia has to offer to get people to risk all the sanctions and other problems associated with doing business with Russia during its war here in Ukraine, it was selling that oil for about $20 or $15 less per barrel.

Right now, all the uncertainty means that lots of those buyers like India, who had been pressured in recent months to stop buying as much oil from Russia, might now be a lot more willing to take that risk.

And Russia might actually end up getting closer to that target of $16 a barrel in the next few weeks, at least if this carries on.

And that is really crucial because there'd been real hope here in Ukraine that that financial stress Putin to think twice about continuing this war extending for another year or more.

And now it seems like that financial pressure is going to be taken off.

The war against Iran could pose an even greater danger to Ukraine.

The US May, in effect, simply forget about it.

Four days after launching the war on Iran, US President Donald Trump said that wouldn't happen.

And as far as Russia, Ukraine, where is it on my priority list?

I thought it was going to be one of the easier ones, but

went on to say, not in that it affects the United States so much because it's very far away.

Keeping Trump's attention and the resources that only the US can provide for Ukraine may be a challenge.

The CIA and other intelligence services have been crucial to the Ukrainians in battlefield targeting and other key combat tasks.

But it's also about munitions, missiles, artillery, launchers that the US Sells to European countries who then deliver them to Ukraine.

That includes air defense systems like the Patriot, which helps Ukraine protect Kyiv and other cities.

So what would happen if the US Decided it had more urgent things to do or buyers willing to pay a higher price and cut off the flow?

I think the real crucial system here is the Patriot missile defense system.

That is basically the only game in town here in Ukraine to protect Ukrainian cities from Russian ballistic missiles, the European equivalents.

SAMT hasn't shown itself able to really stand up and to intercept those Russian ballistic missiles.

And if you just look at the production, it is tiny.

Right now, the US is producing about 600 of the PAC3.

That's the most modern version of that interceptor missile a year 600.

Just to give you a comparison, Iran has fired about upwards of 150 ballistic missiles just at the UAE over the last few days.

The figure 90 missiles in a month at Ukraine.

So if you've got a worldwide production in the hundreds and simply more than that being fired in a very short space of time, that shows you quite how big the competition is for these interceptor missiles.

Just recently, you had the German defense minister saying that Germany would find another five interceptor missiles for Ukraine as a kind of emergency measure and was hoping that other European countries would send a fused dozen.

And to intercept one ballistic missile, you're often firing several interceptors to do that job.

Ukraine is getting those interceptor missiles for European cash from the US and it has been near the top of the queue for those deliveries recently.

But now, if you're having US Allies in the Gulf using up their stockpiles in a matter of days, then that is going to be kind of questions can be reopened and there's going to be a lot of pressure from those allies with a lot of money to put on the table in a hurry that they should be prioritized over Ukraine.

So that's a real worry here, that you might see Ukraine in a much worse state in terms of its ability to defend from Russian ballistic attacks at a time when Russia is ramping up its own production of those ballistic missiles and there is simply no other game in town.

In fact, Ukraine is so short of those crucial interceptor missiles, it has offered to trade anti drone technology, a key part of its air defense, to countries on the Persian Gulf for more interceptors.

US President Donald Trump says operations could last for over a month, but

The longer fighting goes on, the longer oil prices are likely to stay high and the more missiles the US and its allies will use.

Vladimir Putin's gain and Ukraine's loss.

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How is the Iran war affecting Ukraine? | DW News

crucial

prioritize

basically

surge