Name: Iran War: Why The Stock Market Hasn’t Crashed Yet?
Uploaded: 2026-03-04T18:13:34.000Z
Duration: 12 min 30 s
Description: Thousands of YouTube videos with English-Chinese subtitles! Now you can learn to understand native speakers, expand your vocabulary, and improve your pronunciation...

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Donald Trump has started a major war with Iran and that's supposed to crush the US economy, especially the stock market.

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But if you look at the s and P500, the index is doing pretty fine.

Last year when Donald Trump announced the global tariffs, the stock market crashed by about 20% and some individual stocks went down as low as 30% or even 50%.

So why the stock market isn't crashing this time?

First of all, oil prices are rising because Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of the global oil moves through.

And that means that there is a shortage of oil in the market.

And because the price of anything is determined by demand and supply, that means that prices of oil could actually reach to as high as $150.

And we are in the middle of AI revolution, which means that AI needs a lot of energy.

And if oil prices rise to $150 within the next month or so, if this conflict is going to be dragged, then we supposed to see a huge stock market crash.

But on the other side, the United States is the world's largest producer of oil.

And most of the oil that the United States imports isn't actually from Middle East.

Most of the Middle Eastern oil is shipped to Asian countries back during 1970s and 80s where most of the US current refineries have been built.

They have been built to refine heavy oil and Middle Eastern oil is light oil.

That means that the United States imports its oil primarily from Canada.

So investors know that there won't be such an oil shock like it was back in 1970s and that's why they're not worried.

Besides, recently the United States has captured the President of Venezuela and now the US has full control over Venezuelan oil.

Another reason is that Donald Trump has promised a quick war.

So investors are looking that, well, maybe this is going to be another couple of weeks, maybe a couple of months, just like it was with tariffs.

And suddenly Donald Trump is going to back down and that will be the end of the war.

That's why we shouldn't be selling our investments and making massive losses now.

Thirdly, there is going to be a lot of inflation and that will prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering down interest rates.

The U.S. economy is headed into a recession and that is normal.

That is basically an economic cycle that any economy would go through.

The economy was booming because there has been so much AI investments and now all of that is slowing down and the economy is slowly getting into a recession.

But at the same time, we haven't actually fixed inflation.

We haven't actually hit a 2% inflation target that is set by the Federal Reserve.

And when the Supreme Court has shut down Trump's tariffs, I was expecting for the Fed to lower down interest rates, but

That will create systematic inflation across the ent economy, which means that forget about cutting interest rates.

And we know that the Fed isn't actually running to cut interest rates when it knows that there might be high inflation, just like it was with tariffs last year.

So if there are so many reasons for the stock market to crash, why didn't the market crash?

And that's because war is always good for the economy, or at least in most cases.

That means that the government, which is the largest spender in the economy, will suddenly start spending a lot more than it was spending in the past.

Massive spending means that there is going to be massive demand in the economy and that means higher revenues.

If you're a business and you're selling anything in the economy and then there is huge demand by the government that is going to drive your revenues higher.

That means that there are going to be higher profits and that means that there are going to be higher valuations.

The GDP is growing when there are a lot of spending in the economy.

And the spending is primarily is done either by consumers, people like you who are buying stuff in the economy from Amazon and Apple, or it could be by the government, or it could be an investment by a business or when you're selling to other nations.

In this case, when the government is massively spending money because there is a war is happening in Middle east, that means that the overall economy is going to continue growing and, and

investors understand that this spending is going to result in higher revenues, which means that in higher profits.

Yes, inflation might prevent the United States Federal Reserve to lower down interest rates.

At its core, inflation basically means that the dollar is losing its value and when the currency is losing its value and there are no alternatives because most people cannot possibly go and just keep their money in gold.

I mean, part of investors are doing that and most of investors right now are holding a lot of gold.

On the other side, there is just so much wealth in the world and that wealth must be invested somewhere.

So I would rather keep my investments in very safe companies than gold, even though that gold has been outperforming everyone else recently.

So investors are basically not rushing to sell their businesses.

They're not rushing to sell their stocks in the stock market because there is going to be a lot of inflation due to high oil prices.

And a better way to actually preserve your wealth is by keeping your money invested in really great assets, which means that in really great stocks.

Another reason is that investors just got used to Trump's surprises.

After the Liberation Day, when Donald Trump announced tariffs on every single nation in the world, what exactly happened to the market?

Suddenly the market was like, what on earth is happening?

So investors sold their stocks, and a lot of these investors did actually make massive losses.

But after that, they realized that these tariffs are not actually real.

After raising tariffs to 150 or 180% on China, Donald Trump lowered the tariffs to as low as 30%.

Now, secondly, he made a lot of exceptions for businesses such as Apple, and

Apple is probably the largest importer from China.

And finally, the Supreme Court has shut down its tariffs.

So this time, investors are not buying it.

They just got used to the surprises of Donald Trump, which is why they're like, we are not going to massively sell off our stocks.

Besides, if you take that money out, where are you going to invest the trillions of dollars that you have just sold?

The single option is, of course, going to be gold.

But there is a limited amount of gold in the world, so we can't just all buy gold on the other side.

Which markets are you going to invest those trillions of dollars?

Will you take them to the European Union?

Well, you take them to the British markets.

Well, the British stock market overall, if you just pick up the top hundred largest companies in Britain, which is an equivalent to the S&P 500 in the United States, it hasn't been even growing probably by about 5%.

So what are you going to choose, 10% in the United States or 5% in Great Britain?

At the same time, we are in the middle of the AI revolution and nobody wants to miss AI.

The people who missed the Internet revolution really regret their decision.

Because look at the largest companies today in the world.

There are tech companies and people who are very rich today, people who are very wealthy today.

People who dominate the Forbes billionaires list are the people who built Internet companies or invested in Internet companies.

And if AI is the next Internet, then nobody wants to miss that.

And the AI revolution is happening in two nations, the United States of America and China.

Of course, you can't just go and invest in China, because China's stock market is pretty much a closed market and most companies are being heavily influenced by the Communist Party of China.

The only free market where you can invest in AI companies is the United States.

And if you, if you look at The S&P 500, the top 10 largest companies there literally represent 40% of the entire index.

When you have a complete monopoly, it is very difficult to crush you.

You have hundreds of billions of dollars of cash.

You dominate entire industries, so you can easily survive any crash.

But at the same time, these tech companies are the most vulnerable to to the current crisis.

Because the current crisis is making the future cash flow a lot less valuable than it was in the past.

A dollar today worth a lot more than a dollar tomorrow.

So when you're trying to find valuations, you're looking at a company or a stock as a printing machine that is going to print money over the next many, many years.

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Iran War: Why The Stock Market Hasn’t Crashed Yet?

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